Journal Issue: World Bank Research Observer, Volume 36, Issue 2
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Volume
36
Number
2
Issue Date
2021-08-01
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Public Procurement, Regional Integration, and the Belt and Road Initiative
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2021-05-21) Ghossein, Tania; Hoekman, Bernard
China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a mechanism through which countries can upgrade connectivity-related infrastructure, including through cross-border projects, complementing traditional sources of finance. An overarching goal of the BRI is to reduce trade costs between China and partner countries, in part by helping to integrate regional markets. The large-scale borrowing associated with BRI projects has given rise to potential debt servicing and sustainability concerns. The rate of return of BRI regional infrastructure projects depends in part on the integrity of public procurement processes and realizing value-for-money objectives. To date BRI projects financed by Chinese institutions have been largely awarded to Chinese companies. Enhancing transparency of BRI procurement processes and international cooperation among countries participating in the BRI would help achieve value for money goals and support the integration of BRI countries.
Financial Inclusion and Stability
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2020-12-02) Čihák, Martin; Mare, Davide Salvatore; Melecky, Martin; Mare, Davide S.
This paper reviews the literature on financial stability and financial inclusion—two broad objectives of financial policy that may be mutually dependent. The review suggests the possible co-dependence of stability and inclusion. We build on this theoretical motivation by exploring stylized facts (correlations) obtained from data sets that have been widely used in the literature on financial inclusion and stability. The empirical correlations suggest that, on average, financial inclusion and stability correlate negatively, but the correlations vary systematically across individuals, firms, and country contexts. Depending on the financial instrument and stability measure, positive correlations are also likely. These associations reflect some findings in the existing literature, but also point to knowledge gaps that can be addressed by future research.
Can Jobs Programs Build Peace?
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2020-09-30) Brück, Tilman; Ferguson, Neil T. N.; Izzi, Valeria; Stojetz, Wolfgang
In the last decade, well over $10 billion has been spent on employment programs designed to contribute to peace and stability. Despite the outlay, whether these programs perform, and how they do so, remain open questions. This study conducts three reviews to derive the status quo of knowledge. First, it draws on academic literature on the microfoundations of instability to distill testable theories of how employment programs could affect stability at the micro level. Second, it analyses academic and grey literature that directly evaluates the impacts of employment programs on peace-related outcomes. Third, it conducts a systematic review of program-based learning from over 400 interventions. This study finds good theoretical reasons to believe that employment programs could contribute to peace. However, only very limited evidence exists on overall impacts on peace or on the pathways underlying the theories of change. At the program level, the review finds strong evidence that contributions to peace and stability are often simply assumed to have occurred. This provides a major challenge for the justification of continued spending on jobs for peace programs. Instead, systematic and rigorous learning on the impacts of jobs for peace programs needs to be scaled up urgently.
What Drives Successful Economic Diversification in Resource-Rich Countries?
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2020-03-29) Lashitew, Addisu A.; Ross, Michael L.; Werker, Eric
The “resource curse” is often understood to imply poor growth in the non-resource sectors of the economy, but research into the diversification performance of resource-rich countries is limited. This paper surveys recent evidence and identifies empirical patterns in the economic diversification of resource-rich countries. Diversification is measured using the growth of per capita non-resource (manufacturing and services) sectors in domestic and export markets, which has a cleaner interpretation than competing measures. This measure is used to evaluate the long-term diversification of countries that started off as resource-dependent, and to rank countries according to their performance. We then identify policy-relevant correlates of diversification at the national level, including the acquisition of human capital, public and intellectual capital, and firm dynamism. More resource-dependent countries appear to perform worse on measures of human capital and intellectual capital, but more resource-abundant countries perform better on public capital and human capital accumulation. We examine the mechanisms behind diversification performance through in-depth case studies of Oman, Laos, and Indonesia, and conclude by identifying policy lessons and future research directions.
Public Service Reform in Post-Conflict Societies
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2020-12-24) Blum, Jurgen Rene; Rogger, Daniel
Building a capable public service is a key component of post-conflict state building. An effective public service is fundamental to the regulation of society, to managing public funds, and to service delivery. Yet in post-conflict environments, there is typically a tradeoff between the long-term objective of state building and securing the peace in the short term. To buy peace, political elites hand out public jobs and resources to constituents regardless of merit. Donors frequently rely on “parallel” project delivery structures rather than public servants to address citizens’ pressing service delivery needs. Both of these practices may achieve short-term objectives but undermine state building. In the face of these trade-offs, how can capable public services be built in post-conflict societies? This paper aims to summarize the evidence base regarding this question. It does so by reviewing the evidence from post-conflict settings, and by discussing the validity of findings on public service reform from non-conflict settings. Given the distinctive tradeoffs invoked by securing the peace, and limited prior research on post-conflict settings, this topic presents a wide-open research agenda.