Publication: Timor-Leste Economic Report: From Resources to Results - Transforming Public Spending to High Growth
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2025-02-12
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2025-02-12
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Timor-Leste faces a defining moment in its economic journey. As the country seeks to transition from petroleum dependency to a more diverse and resilient economy, the stakes cannot be higher. The Petroleum Fund, a lifeline that has sustained much of the national budget, risks depletion by 2035, based on recent Ministry of Finance estimates, unless there are urgent reforms. Ambitious national goals - such as upcoming ASEAN membership - reflect the country’s aspirations to integrate globally and broaden its growth horizons. Yet, these opportunities are weighed down by significant fiscal challenges. More specifically, an expanding national budget that raises concerns about fiscal sustainability and the efficiency of public spending. The question is clear: how can Timor-Leste spend better to fuel sustainable growth while preserving fiscal stability
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“World Bank. 2025. Timor-Leste Economic Report: From Resources to Results - Transforming Public Spending to High Growth. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/42806 License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO.”
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Publication Timor-Leste Social Assistance : Public Expenditure and Program Performance Report(Washington, DC, 2013-06-24)The Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste is a young, post-conflict nation endowed with significant oil revenues. Timor-Leste has one of the highest birth rates in the world (2.41 percent population growth) with over 44 percent of the population below 15 years of age (Timor-Leste Census, 2010). Since the 2006 crisis, the Government of Timor-Leste has shown a clear commitment to social assistance. Globally, poverty persistence is closely related to major life-cycle disadvantages resulting in low human capital outcomes, and yet large-scale poverty remains unaddressed by current social protection efforts. This expenditure review and performance evaluation report is part of the technical assistance provided to Timor-Leste's Ministry of Social Solidarity (MSS) in response to the lack of any national level evaluation of the safety nets system since its inception. To that end, this study seeks to assess the social assistance policy, as well as the performance of the main MSS social assistance programs. More specifically, the aims are to: (1) determine whether existing programs are efficient, effective and sufficient in addressing main vulnerabilities; (2) assess the adequacy and composition of the allocation of financial resources for delivery of government social assistance; (3) review operational and administrative issues; and (4) make recommendations for improving the delivery of social safety nets. Some of the questions that this report seeks to answer include: what are the main risks facing the vulnerable groups in Timor-Leste?; what types of programs are in place to address those risks?; is the range of programs and their financial allocations appropriate for the country's needs?; is the institutional arrangement adequate?; are these programs effective and reaching the intended beneficiaries?; and are they implemented cost-effectively? The report is organized as follows: chapter one gives context, purpose and conceptual framework. Chapter two describes the attributes of the poorest 40 percent and the main vulnerabilities and risks that low-income families in Timor-Leste face. Chapter three provides a historical overview of the social assistance policy and programs that emerged after the 2006-2007 conflict. A summary of levels and trends in aggregate public expenditure on safety nets, composition of spending as well as program-specific budget analysis is presented in chapter four. Chapter five assesses performance of the safety nets by analyzing coverage, targeting effectiveness, and generosity. Chapter six examines impact and targeting efficiency using simulation techniques. Chapter seven assesses implementation capacity, and business processes, and in particular, the following: ID systems, enrollment, payments arrangements and monitoring and evaluation. Chapter eight concludes with implications for social response and policy considerations.Publication The Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste : Public Expenditure Review(Washington, DC, 2004-07-19)The specific objectives of the Public Expenditure Review (PER) were to: increase the poverty reduction impact of the expenditure program through an emphasis on service delivery and accountability at all levels; and stimulate transparency and enhance accountability through improved availability and dissemination of information on expenditure issues. Following the broad objectives laid out in the National Development Plan (NDP), the Government of Timor-Leste has sought to restrain expenditures at sustainable levels and ensure that expenditure allocations are consistent with the NDP's development priorities, giving particular priority to basic education and health services. The core financial management system compares favorably with that of other low- income countries and fiduciary arrangements are basically sound, if still incomplete, but agency level financial management systems are often rudimentary and the viability of the system as a whole is threatened by the scheduled departure of key expatriate personnel. Furthermore, improvements in agency level expenditure and procurement planning, together with improvements in procurement administration, will be needed if the Government is to bring budget execution in line with appropriations and improve service delivery. Timor-Leste faces three main challenges in developing the civil service in the post- Independence era: controlling the size of the civil service, developing an appropriate pay policy, and establishing basic, but critical, management systems. Key issues and strategic directions in education include improving access, efficiency, and quality will involve a combination of supply-side and demand-side interventions. As the education system shifts from reconstruction to longer-term development, expenditure policy will need to focus on aligning resources toward established policy objectives while accommodating a gradual reduction in external financing. Basic management systems and mechanisms for channeling resources directly to schools will be critical if budget execution rates are to improve. In the road transport sector, the main challenge is to create and implement a strategy for sustainable provision, rehabilitation and maintenance of roads. With regard to the health sector, the Government of Timor-Leste has made significant progress in re-establishing health services and can now turn its attention to operationalizing health sector strategies. A revised service configuration recognizes financial and human resource constraints while maximizing the percentage of the population with access to primary health care. In general, health sector expenditures are generally in line with sector priorities, with hospital and specialized services spending capped at around 40 percent of Consolidated Fund expenditures.Publication Timor-Leste Economic Report, October 2018(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-10)The economic outlook for 2018 remains uncertain, partly hinging on the execution of the state budget. Economic activity was sluggish in the first half of 2018, as inferred by lacklustre public spending, weakened trade levels, and slower credit growth. The recently approved 2018 budget proposes a substantial expenditure increase in the last four months of the year, to offset eighteen months of constrained spending. This presents a significant challenge for the public sector and budget execution rates may be lower than usual, due to the limited time to spend funds. Moreover, a proportion of the 2018 budget will be used to settle previous financial commitments for activities already undertaken, expenditure arrears, rather than create new economic activity. Overall, it is unlikely that this expansionary fiscal stance will considerably influence domestic economic activity in the short-term. GDP is forecast to grow by 0.8 percent in 2018, under a fairly positive scenario for budget execution. Political uncertainty affected consumer and business confidence until recently, but private investment may pick up in late 2018. The construction sector is set to recover, partly through the Tibar Bay Port, as well as agriculture if weather conditions are favourable. The broader implications of two consecutive years of disappointing economic performance are yet to be gauged, such as the impact on employment levels and earnings, labour productivity, and household incomes. In the medium-term, economic growth is expected to recover by 2019.Publication Timor-Leste Poverty Assessment : Poverty in a New Nation - Analysis for Action, Volume 1. Main Report(Washington, DC, 2003-05)Timor-Leste has achieved enormous progress in rehabilitating its economy, reconstructing its infrastructure, reintegrating its refugees and building the key elements of a sustainable political process in an environment of internal peace. It now faces many challenges of nation-building and of overcoming the deprivation affecting the lives of the poor. This report written in two volumes lays out the challenge of poverty reduction in Timor-Leste. It is based on the first nationally-representative household survey collected during August to December 2001. The report's objectives are modest: to set a baseline for the new country on the extent, nature and dimensions of poverty; and to assist the decision making of the newly elected government and its efforts in formulating, implementing and monitoring its Poverty Reduction Strategy. The overall objective was not to lay out the elements of poverty strategy but rather to present evidence on the basis of which the Timorese can define and refine their own poverty reduction strategy. The key challenge lies now in formulating a poverty monitoring plan that includes both quantitative and participatory elements, and lays out the institutional arrangement for data analysis and reporting to ensure that the collected data inform policy making and program design.Publication Timor-Leste Economic Report, March 2018(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-03)Gross domestic product (GDP)1 growth is expected to have fallen sharply in 2017 to a projected -1.8 percent from 5.3 percent the year before. This contraction is driven by a reversal of trend in government spending. In the last six months, the political impasse has worsened, with the President declaring a ‘serious institutional crisis’ and dissolving Parliament in January 2018. The current government has not been able to pass its rectification budget for 2017 nor a budget for 2018 to date. The resulting tight budget envelope has led to a sharp reduction in government expenditure of some 24 percent year-on-year, especially felt in the last three months of the year. With government expenditure making up about 75 percent of GDP, weakening expenditure has had a significant downwards impact on growth in 2017. Offshore petroleum production has continued to gradually decline over 2017 as existing fields are steadily depleted, while coffee exports were lower in 2017 due to poor weather conditions. International arrivals by air continued to grow, suggesting that the international visitor market has held up. Private consumption has been more robust in 2017, but investment, both public and private, has declined and foreign direct investment (FDI) has dried up. There remains an urgent long-term agenda of development in Timor-Leste which a new government program could focus on. Key priority reform areas include addressing the multi-sectoral challenge of severe malnutrition, improving systems of public service delivery, supporting a broadening and diversification of the economy, and putting environmental and fiscal management back on a sustainable path. Existing fiscal reserves provide a golden opportunity to achieve these reforms, but only if they are utilized to support a transition to a long-term sustainable economic and fiscal model.
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However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters. Against this backdrop, emerging market and developing economies are set to enter the second quarter of the twenty-first century with per capita incomes on a trajectory that implies substantially slower catch-up toward advanced-economy living standards than they previously experienced. Without course corrections, most low-income countries are unlikely to graduate to middle-income status by the middle of the century. 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Yet challenges persist: from high rates of child marriage to limited educational opportunities. Over half of African girls ages 15 to 19 are out of school or married or have children. How can African countries overcome these challenges to ensure that adolescent girls enter adulthood empowered to thrive? Pathways to Prosperity for Adolescent Girls in Africa offers a groundbreaking road map for change. This landmark report: Outlines concrete, actionable policy recommendations; Provides a comprehensive review of evidence-based interventions; Presents a data-driven categorization of African countries to guide investments in adolescent girls; and Introduces an innovative framework for understanding and measuring adolescent girls’ empowerment. Drawing on extensive research and consultations with adolescent girls, policy makers, and practitioners, this report reveals that investing in adolescent girls can yield a tenfold return in economic impact. It outlines six key areas for targeted action: building human capital, enhancing economic success, focusing on the most vulnerable girls, adopting a holistic approach, addressing data and evidence gaps, and mobilizing diverse stakeholders. Whether you are a policy maker, researcher, development practitioner, or advocate, this report will equip you with the knowledge and tools to drive meaningful change. Discover how empowering adolescent girls can transform individual lives and African economies. Join the movement to secure a brighter future for Africa’s adolescent girls and nations alike. The time for action is now.Publication Business Ready 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-03)Business Ready (B-READY) is a new World Bank Group corporate flagship report that evaluates the business and investment climate worldwide. It replaces and improves upon the Doing Business project. 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The 2024 report, which covers 50 economies, serves as the first in a series that will expand in geographical coverage and refine its methodology over time, supporting reform advocacy, policy guidance, and further analysis and research.