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The Impact of China’s Slowdown on the Asia Pacific Region: An Application of the GVAR Model

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dc.contributor.authorInoue, Tomoo
dc.contributor.authorKaya, Demet
dc.contributor.authorOhshige, Hitoshi
dc.date.accessioned2015-11-05T18:49:43Z
dc.date.available2015-11-05T18:49:43Z
dc.date.issued2015-10
dc.description.abstractAn export-oriented development strategy fostered the Asia Pacific region’s economic success, making it the fastest growing region in the world. In recent years, despite waning demand from the crisis-hit Western economies, the accelerating demand from China boosted intraregional trade in Asia. Although China’s Asian trading partners benefit from increasing exports to China, this stronger linkage with China has made them more vulnerable to the risk of a Chinese slowdown. This paper examines the impact of a negative Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) shock on Asian economies by employing the Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model, using the dataset through the third quarter of 2014 for 33 countries. The analysis finds that a negative Chinese GDP shock impacts commodity exporters, such as Indonesia, to the greatest extent, reflecting both demand and terms of trade shocks. Export-dependent countries in the East Asian production cycle, such as Japan, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand, are also severely affected. The analysis also finds that a negative shock to China’s real GDP would not only have an adverse effect on the price of crude oil, as some previous studies have also shown, but also on the prices of metals and agricultural products. The study also investigates the impact of a potential negative shock to the real GDP of the United States on Asian countries, and determines that although the U.S. economy has a larger influence on Asian economies than China’s economy, the Asian countries are more exposed to China than ever through increased economic ties.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/10/25155241/impact-china’s-slowdown-asia-pacific-region-application-gvar-model
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-7442
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/22871
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 7442
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectFORECASTS
dc.subjectGROWTH RATES
dc.subjectREAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
dc.subjectMONETARY POLICY
dc.subjectTRADE SHARE
dc.subjectOIL PRICE
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectWORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION
dc.subjectPRICE INCREASES
dc.subjectSHORT-TERM RATE
dc.subjectLAGS
dc.subjectT-VALUE
dc.subjectTRADE SHARES
dc.subjectSHORT-TERM INTEREST RATES
dc.subjectDIRECTION OF TRADE
dc.subjectSTRUCTURAL CHANGE
dc.subjectINTEREST
dc.subjectDEPRECIATION
dc.subjectDUMMY VARIABLES
dc.subjectEXPECTATIONS
dc.subjectINTEREST RATE
dc.subjectREAL GDP
dc.subjectEXCHANGE
dc.subjectEQUITY MARKET
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectEXPORTS
dc.subjectELASTICITY
dc.subjectSHARE OF WORLD TRADE
dc.subjectRECESSION
dc.subjectPOLITICAL ECONOMY
dc.subjectEXPORTERS
dc.subjectPRICE INDICES
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL BUSINESS
dc.subjectTRANSMISSION MECHANISM
dc.subjectDISTRIBUTION
dc.subjectVARIABLES
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIES
dc.subjectSLOWDOWN
dc.subjectEQUITY PRICES
dc.subjectPRICE
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT BOND
dc.subjectDUMMY VARIABLE
dc.subjectSUPPLY CONDITIONS
dc.subjectINFLATION
dc.subjectECONOMIC SHOCK
dc.subjectVARIANCE-COVARIANCE MATRIX
dc.subjectIMBALANCE
dc.subjectPUBLIC POLICY
dc.subjectOIL PRICES
dc.subjectECONOMIC SLOWDOWN
dc.subjectGLOBAL ECONOMY
dc.subjectCURRENCY
dc.subjectTRADE SHOCKS
dc.subjectERROR CORRECTION MODEL
dc.subjectCOVARIANCE MATRIX
dc.subjectREGIME CHANGES
dc.subjectTRADE INTEGRATION
dc.subjectADVANCED ECONOMIES
dc.subjectRESERVE BANK
dc.subjectEXOGENOUS VARIABLES
dc.subjectMONEY
dc.subjectGOLD
dc.subjectBASE YEAR
dc.subjectECONOMETRICS
dc.subjectINTEREST RATES
dc.subjectSUPPLY SHOCKS
dc.subjectWTO
dc.subjectOPEN ECONOMY
dc.subjectBUSINESS CYCLE
dc.subjectIMPORTS
dc.subjectDIRECT INVESTMENT
dc.subjectGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
dc.subjectREAL ESTATE
dc.subjectCOMMODITY PRICE
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC FORECASTING
dc.subjectBANKING SECTOR
dc.subjectIMPACT ON PRICES
dc.subjectEQUITY
dc.subjectFEDERAL RESERVE
dc.subjectOIL MARKET
dc.subjectEQUITY PRICE
dc.subjectFEDERAL RESERVE BANK
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL TRADE
dc.subjectLONG-TERM INTEREST RATE
dc.subjectFINANCIAL CRISIS
dc.subjectFUTURE
dc.subjectVALUE
dc.subjectFOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL MONEY
dc.subjectPRICE OF OIL
dc.subjectCREDIT
dc.subjectMACROECONOMICS
dc.subjectWORLD ECONOMY
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
dc.subjectDEMAND
dc.subjectLONG-TERM INTEREST RATES
dc.subjectECONOMY
dc.subjectAGRICULTURE
dc.subjectEQUATIONS
dc.subjectERROR TERM
dc.subjectMEASUREMENT
dc.subjectSHARES
dc.subjectREAL EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectRAPID EXPANSION
dc.subjectFINANCIAL ANALYSIS
dc.subjectDYNAMIC ANALYSIS
dc.subjectECONOMIC THEORY
dc.subjectLOCAL CURRENCY
dc.subjectMONETARY POLICIES
dc.subjectENDOGENOUS VARIABLES
dc.subjectOUTPUT
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC VARIABLES
dc.subjectBUSINESS CYCLES
dc.subjectTRADE DATA
dc.subjectWEIGHT
dc.subjectECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectTRADE
dc.subjectECONOMIC INTEGRATION
dc.subjectERROR CORRECTION MODELS
dc.subjectGDP
dc.subjectGOODS
dc.subjectTHEORY
dc.subjectGROWTH RATE
dc.subjectINVESTMENT
dc.subjectRISK
dc.subjectBOND
dc.subjectSHARE
dc.subjectSHORT-TERM INTEREST RATE
dc.subjectCREDIT QUALITY
dc.subjectAUTOREGRESSION
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL PRICES
dc.subjectSUPPLY
dc.subjectBANKING
dc.subjectTRADE RELATIONS
dc.subjectEXTERNAL SHOCKS
dc.subjectCOMMODITY MARKETS
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT FINANCE
dc.subjectCONSUMER PRICE INDEX
dc.subjectWORLD TRADE
dc.subjectCOMMODITY MARKET
dc.subjectRAPID GROWTH
dc.subjectCOMMODITIES
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectPRICE INDEX
dc.subjectCOMMODITY PRICES
dc.subjectTRADING PARTNERS
dc.subjectTRADING PARTNER
dc.subjectOPEN ECONOMIES
dc.subjectCOMMODITY
dc.subjectWEIGHTS
dc.subjectWORLD MARKET
dc.subjectPRICES
dc.subjectECONOMIES
dc.subjectTRADE STATISTICS
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT POLICY
dc.subjectFUTURE RESEARCH
dc.titleThe Impact of China’s Slowdown on the Asia Pacific Regionen
dc.title.subtitleAn Application of the GVAR Modelen
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.typeDocument de travailfr
dc.typeDocumento de trabajoes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleThe Impact of China's Slowdown on the Asia Pacific Region: An Application of the GVAR Model
okr.date.disclosure2015-10-14
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-10T10:56:57.757389Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/10/25155241/impact-china’s-slowdown-asia-pacific-region-application-gvar-model
okr.guid960421467986351570
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-7442
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b08318d4dd_3_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum25155241
okr.identifier.reportWPS7442
okr.importedtrue
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2015/10/14/090224b0831462a0/2_0/Rendered/PDF/The0impact0of00on0of0the0GVAR0model.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeEast Asia and Pacific
okr.region.administrativeSouth Asia
okr.region.countryChina
okr.region.geographicalAsia
okr.region.geographicalEast Asia
okr.region.geographicalOceania
okr.topicDebt Markets
okr.topicCurrencies and Exchange Rates
okr.topicMarkets and Market Access
okr.topicEmerging Markets
okr.topicFinance and Financial Sector Development
okr.topicPrivate Sector Development
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Theory & Research
okr.unitIDA Resource Mobilization Unit, Development Finance Vice Presidency
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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