Cárdenas, MauricioRozo, Sandra2017-08-282017-08-282008https://hdl.handle.net/10986/28005Many analysts consider that lack of security is a major obstacle to growth in Colombia. This paper identifies a structural downturn in economic growth-of nearly two percentage points per year-as a result of the increase in illicit crops and crime rates after 1980. A decline in total factor productivity has been the key channel linking crime and economic growth. Political upheavals and high levels of inequality and poverty motivated the adoption of a new constitution in 1991. The constitution mandated additional fiscal expenditures to curb social tensions. Major progress has been made in terms of public safety and, to a lesser extent, in the provision of health and education. However, long?run growth will continue to be constrained by inadequate transport infrastructure and low international trade volumes.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOACCOUNTINGANNUAL GROWTHAVERAGE GROWTHBILATERAL TRADEBINDING CONSTRAINTCAPITAL ACCUMULATIONCAPITAL FORMATIONCAPITAL INFLOWSCAPITAL SHARECAPITAL STOCKCENTRAL BANKCHECKSCIVIL CONFLICTCLIMATE CHANGECOMMERCIAL CODECOMPANY LAWCOMPETITIVENESSCONVENTIONAL WISDOMCOUNTRY CASECOUNTRY RISKCOVARIANCE MATRIXCURRENCYCURRENCY APPRECIATIONDATA SETSDEBTDEBT CRISISDECENTRALIZATIONDECISION MAKINGDEPENDENT VARIABLEDERIVATIVEDETERMINANTS OF GROWTHDEVELOPMENT PRACTITIONERSDRUG TRAFFICKINGDRUGSDUMMY VARIABLEDUMMY VARIABLESDYNAMIC ANALYSISECONOMETRIC ANALYSISECONOMETRICSECONOMIC CONDITIONSECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTSECONOMIC EFFICIENCYECONOMIC GROWTHECONOMIC PROGRESSECONOMIC RESEARCHECONOMICSEDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENTEDUCATIONAL INDICATORSELASTICITYEMPIRICAL WORKEQUIPMENTESTIMATED COEFFICIENTESTIMATION METHODESTIMATION RESULTSEXCHANGE RATEEXPLAINING CHANGESEXPLANATORY VARIABLESEXPROPRIATION RISKEXTERNAL SHOCKSEXTREME POVERTYFACTOR ACCUMULATIONFACTORS OF PRODUCTIONFEDERAL RESERVEFEDERAL RESERVE BANKFEMALE LABOR FORCEFINANCIAL CRISISFINANCIAL MARKETSFISCAL DEFICITSFISCAL POLICIESFISCAL POLICYFIXED EFFECTSFREE TRADEGDPGDP PER CAPITAGINI COEFFICIENTGLOBAL DEVELOPMENTGOVERNMENT EXPENDITURESGOVERNMENT INTERVENTIONGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTGROWTH DETERMINANTSGROWTH LITERATUREGROWTH MODELGROWTH PATHGROWTH PERFORMANCEGROWTH RATEGROWTH RATESHIGH TAXESHOUSEHOLD SURVEYSHUMAN CAPITALIMPORTANT POLICYINCOMEINCOME TAXINCREASES IN OUTPUTINDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIESINFANTINFANT MORTALITYINFLATIONINFLATION RATEINFLATION RATESINFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTINSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENTINTERNATIONAL BANKINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTINTERNATIONAL TRADEINVENTORYINVESTMENT RATELABOR FORCELABOR INPUTLEGAL STATUSLEGISLATORSLONG RUNLOW BIRTH WEIGHTMACROECONOMIC INSTABILITYMACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCEMILITARY EXPENDITURESMONETARY FINANCINGMONETARY FUNDMORTALITY RATENATIONAL ACCOUNTSNATIONAL GOVERNMENTNATURAL RESOURCENEGATIVE EFFECTNEGATIVE IMPACT0 HYPOTHESISOUTPUT GROWTHOUTPUT RATIOPENSIONSPER CAPITA GROWTHPERSONAL INCOMEPHYSICAL ASSETSPOLICY AREASPOLICY DECISIONSPOLICY IMPLICATIONSPOLICY MAKERSPOLICY POINT OF VIEWPOLICY PROPOSALSPOLICY RESEARCHPOLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPERPOLICY RESPONSEPOLICY RESPONSESPOLITICAL OPPOSITIONPOLITICAL PARTICIPATIONPOLITICAL PARTIESPOLITICAL STABILITYPOPULAR SUPPORTPOPULATION CENSUSESPOPULATION DATAPOPULATION DENSITYPOVERTY RATESPOVERTY REDUCTIONPRIMARY EDUCATIONPRODUCTION FUNCTIONPUBLIC DEBTPUBLIC EXPENDITURESPUBLIC FINANCESPUBLIC INVESTMENTSPUBLIC SECTORPUBLIC SPENDINGRAPID GROWTHRATE OF GROWTHRATE OF POPULATION GROWTHRATES OF POPULATIONRATES OF RETURNRESPECTRETURNRETURNSRISK OF EXPROPRIATIONRURAL AREASRURAL POPULATIONRURAL POPULATIONSSECONDARY EDUCATIONSECONDARY ENROLLMENTSECONDARY ENROLLMENT RATESSOCIAL CONDITIONSSOCIAL EXPENDITURESSOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURESOCIAL PROGRAMSSOCIAL PROGRESSSOCIAL SECTORSSOCIAL SECURITYSOCIAL SERVICESSOCIAL TENSIONSSOCIAL UNRESTSPILLOVERSTANDARD DEVIATIONSTATE OF KNOWLEDGESTRUCTURAL BREAKSTRUCTURAL CHANGETAXTAX EXEMPTIONSTAX POLICYTAX RATESTAX REVENUESTAX SYSTEMTAXATIONTECHNOLOGICAL CHANGETERRORISTTFPTOTAL EXPENDITURETOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITYTOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTHTRADE LIBERALIZATIONTRADE VOLUMESTRANSACTIONTRANSACTION COSTSTRANSPORTATIONUNDERESTIMATESUNEMPLOYMENTWAGESWARWEALTHWEALTH TAXWEALTH TAXESWORLD FINANCIAL MARKETSWORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATIONWORLD INCOME DISTRIBUTIONWTOWorking PaperWorld Bank10.1596/28005