Maliszewska, MarylaBussolo, MaurizioMurard, Elie2014-06-252014-06-252014-06https://hdl.handle.net/10986/18767In many developing countries, the supply of skilled workers is likely to continue to be stronger than demand, and this should drive down the skill premium and reduce inequality. Within the limitations of any exercise based on simulations, this paper finds that the recently observed reduction in inequality in Latin America may continue. Building on counterfactual scenarios projecting economic and demographic (including age and education) growth, the paper also highlights that by 2030 the long-awaited rise of the middle class in Latin America will be in full swing, as its share will be 43 percent of the total population, twice the value in 2005. This achievement is not guaranteed, as countries with large initial inequalities will have to achieve very high rates of inclusive growth. At the same time, a larger middle class is likely to exert a stronger influence on international and domestic policy making.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOABSOLUTE DIFFERENCEABSOLUTE TERMSABSOLUTE VALUEAGGREGATE GROWTHAGRICULTURAL OUTPUTAGRICULTURAL SECTORAGRICULTUREANNUAL % CHANGEANNUAL GROWTHANNUAL GROWTH RATEANNUAL RATEAVERAGE ANNUALAVERAGE GROWTHAVERAGE INCOMEAVERAGE INCOMESBASE YEARBASKET OF GOODSCAPITAL ACCUMULATIONCITIZENSCOMPARATIVE ADVANTAGECONSTANT PRICESCONSUMERSCOUNTRY INEQUALITYCOUNTRY LEVELDECLINING INEQUALITYDEMAND FOR SERVICESDEMOGRAPHIC CHANGESDEMOGRAPHIC FACTORSDEMOGRAPHIC GROWTHDEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONSDEPENDENCY RATIODEPENDENCY RATIOSDEVELOPED COUNTRIESDEVELOPED WORLDDEVELOPING COUNTRIESDEVELOPING COUNTRYDEVELOPING REGIONSDEVELOPING WORLDDEVELOPMENT GOALSDEVELOPMENT POLICYDISTRIBUTIONAL CHANGESDISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTDISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTSEARNINGS INEQUALITYECONOMETRIC MODELSECONOMIC ACTIVITYECONOMIC CHANGESECONOMIC EXPANSIONECONOMIC GROWTHECONOMIC MODELSECONOMIC PERFORMANCEECONOMIC POLICIESECONOMIC RESEARCHECONOMIC REVIEWECONOMIC THEORYECONOMIC TRENDSECONOMICSEDUCATED WORKERSEDUCATION LEVELEDUCATION SYSTEMSEDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENTELDERLYEMPIRICAL ANALYSISEMPIRICAL STUDIESEQUAL DISTRIBUTIONEQUALIZING EFFECTEXCHANGE RATEEXCHANGE RATESFACTOR PRICESFERTILITYFORECASTSFOSSIL FUELSFUTURE GROWTHGDPGDP PER CAPITAGENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELGINI COEFFICIENTGLOBAL DEVELOPMENTGLOBAL ECONOMYGLOBAL LEVELGROWTH MODELGROWTH MODELSGROWTH PATTERNGROWTH PROJECTIONSGROWTH RATEGROWTH RATESHIGH GROWTHHIGH INCOME COUNTRIESHIGH URBANIZATIONHOUSEHOLD INCOMEHOUSEHOLD LEVELHOUSEHOLD SURVEYSHOUSEHOLD WELFAREHUMAN CAPITALINCOMEINCOME DATAINCOME DISTRIBUTIONINCOME DISTRIBUTIONSINCOME ELASTICITYINCOME ELASTICITY OF DEMANDINCOME GROWTHINCOME GROWTH RATEINCOME INEQUALITYINCOME LEVELINCOME LEVELSINCOME SCALEINCOME STUDYINCOMESINCREASE INCOME INEQUALITYINCREASING INEQUALITYINEQUALITYINEQUALITY CHANGESINEQUALITY DECREASEINEQUALITY LEVELSINEQUALITY TRENDSINEQUALITY WILLINTERNAL MIGRATIONLABOR FORCELABOR MARKETLABOR SUPPLYLIVING STANDARDSLONG RUNMACROECONOMIC OUTCOMESMEAN INCOMEMEASUREMENT ERRORSMEDIAN INCOMEMICRO MODELMIDDLE CLASSMIDDLE CLASS SOCIETYMIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIESMIGRATIONMILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALSMINIMUM LEVELMORTALITYMORTALITY RATESNATIONAL INCOMENATIONALSNATURAL RESOURCESNEGATIVE RELATIONSHIPNUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDSNUMBER OF PEOPLENUMBER OF PERSONSNUMBER OF WORKERSOLD-AGEOLDER PEOPLEOPEN SOCIETYPER CAPITA GROWTHPER CAPITA INCOMEPER CAPITA INCOMESPOLICY CHANGESPOLICY DISCUSSIONSPOLICY GOALSPOLICY MAKINGPOLICY RESEARCHPOLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPERPOOR COUNTRIESPOPULATION GROWTHPOPULATION INCREASESPOPULATION PROJECTIONSPOPULATION SHAREPOPULATION SUBGROUPSPOSITIVE EFFECTSPOVERTY REDUCTIONPOWER PARITYPRIMARY EDUCATIONPRODUCTIVE ASSETSPRODUCTIVITYPRODUCTIVITY GROWTHPROGRESSPROPORTIONAL CHANGEPUBLIC SERVICESPURCHASING POWERPURCHASING POWER PARITYREAL EXCHANGE RATESREAL GDPREAL INCOMEREDUCING INEQUALITYREGIONAL DIFFERENCESREGIONAL LEVELREGIONAL POPULATIONRELATIVE INCOMERELATIVE INCOMESRELATIVE PRICESRELATIVE SHIFTRELATIVE WAGERELATIVE WAGESRESPECTRICH COUNTRIESRISING DEMANDRURAL AREASRURAL POPULATIONSECONDARY EDUCATIONSECONDARY SCHOOLSECONDARY SCHOOL EDUCATIONSECTORAL COMPOSITIONSIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCESSKILL LEVELSKILL PREMIUMSKILLED WAGESKILLED WAGESSKILLED WORKERSSTANDARD DEVIATIONSTRUCTURAL CHANGETERTIARY EDUCATIONTERTIARY LEVELTOTAL OUTPUTUNSKILLED LABORURBAN AREASURBAN MIGRATIONURBAN WORKERSWOMANWORLD INCOME DISTRIBUTIONWORLD POPULATIONWORLD TRADE ORGANIZATIONYOUNG MEN10.1596/1813-9450-6912