Clemens, Michael A.Demombynes, Gabriel2012-03-192012-03-192010-11-01https://hdl.handle.net/10986/3959When is the rigorous impact evaluation of development projects a luxury, and when a necessity? This Paper studies one high-profile case: the Millennium Villages Project (MVP), an experimental and intensive package intervention to spark sustained local economic development in rural Africa. it illustrates the benefits of rigorous impact evaluation in this setting by showing that estimates of the project's effects depend heavily on the evaluation method. Comparing trends at the MVP intervention sites in Kenya, Ghana, and Nigeria to trends in the surrounding areas yields much more modest estimates of the project's effects than the before-versus-after comparisons published thus far by the MVP. Neither approach constitutes a rigorous impact evaluation of the MVP, which is impossible to perform due to weaknesses in the evaluation design of the project's initial phase. These weaknesses include the subjective choice of intervention sites, the subjective choice of comparison sites, the lack of baseline data on comparison sites, the small sample size, and the short time horizon. The authors describe how the next wave of the intervention could be designed to allow proper evaluation of the MVP's impact at little additional cost.CC BY 3.0 IGOAGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENTAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIONAGRICULTURAL TECHNOLOGYBASELINE SURVEYSBULLETINCENSUSESCHILD HEALTHCHILD MORTALITYCHILD MORTALITY RATECHILD MORTALITY RATESCHILD SURVIVALCHRONIC MALNUTRITIONCLINICSCOMMUNITIESCOMMUNITY DEVELOPMENTCOMMUNITY HEALTHCORRELATIONSCORRUPTIONCOUNTERFACTUALDATA COLLECTIONDEVELOPING COUNTRIESDEVELOPMENT INTERVENTIONSDEVELOPMENT PLANSDEVELOPMENT RESEARCHDRINKING WATERECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTECONOMIC GROWTHECONOMIC POLICIESEPIDEMICEVALUATION METHODSEVALUATION RESULTSEXPERIMENTSFIELD EXPERIMENTSGENDERGENDER EQUALITYGLOBAL DEVELOPMENTGLOBAL POVERTYHEALTH INTERVENTIONSHIVHOSPITALHOUSEHOLD INCOMEHOUSEHOLD SURVEYSHOUSEHOLDSHUMAN CAPITALIMPACT EVALUATIONIMPORTANT POLICYINCOMEINFORMATION CAMPAIGNSINTEGRATED DEVELOPMENTINTEGRATED RURAL DEVELOPMENTINTERNATIONAL COMMUNITYINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGYINTERVENTIONINTERVENTIONSIRDLEARNINGLIVE BIRTHSLIVELIHOODLIVING CONDITIONSLIVING STANDARDSLOCAL ECONOMYLOCAL GOVERNMENTSLOCAL INFRASTRUCTUREMALARIAMATERNAL MORTALITYMEASLESMEASLES IMMUNIZATIONMILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALMILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALSMODERNIZATIONMONITORING TEAMSNATIONAL GOVERNMENTNATIONAL LEVELNATIONAL PLANSNATIONAL POLICYNATIONAL POPULATIONNATURAL RESOURCENEWBORNSNUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDSNURSENUTRITIONORAL REHYDRATION SOLUTIONPER CAPITA INCOMEPILOT PROJECTSPLAN OF ACTIONPOLICY PROCESSPOLICY RESEARCHPOLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPERPOPULATION DATAPOPULATION ESTIMATESPOVERTY REDUCTIONPRACTITIONERSPREGNANT WOMENPRIMARY EDUCATIONPRIMARY SCHOOLPROGRAM EFFECTSPROGRAMSPROGRESSPROJECT EVALUATIONPUBLIC HEALTHPUBLIC SERVICEPURCHASING POWERPURCHASING POWER PARITYQUANTITATIVE INDICATORSREGIONAL POPULATIONREMITTANCERESEARCH DESIGNRESEARCH WORKING PAPERSRESEARCHERSRESETTLEMENTRESOURCE CONSTRAINTSRURAL AREARURAL AREASRURAL POPULATIONRURAL POVERTYSAMPLE SIZESANITATIONSANITATION FACILITIESSCARCE RESOURCESSCHOOL ATTENDANCESCIENCESSCIENTIFIC INFORMATIONSERVICE DELIVERYSERVICE DELIVERY SYSTEMSSKILLED BIRTH ATTENDANCESKILLED PERSONNELSPILLOVERSURVEY DATASURVIVAL RATESUSTAINABLE GROWTHTRANSPARENCYTRANSPORTATIONVALIDITYVILLAGESWorld Bank10.1596/1813-9450-5477