Elizarov, ValeriyLevin, Victoria2015-09-142015-09-142015-09-12https://hdl.handle.net/10986/22614Policymakers in many countries, including the Russian Federation, are attempting to encourage fertility as part of their response to the challenge of population aging. Whether pro-natalist policies will be effective depends crucially on how well they address the underlying causes of low fertility and barriers to larger family size. While in some countries in Western Europe postponing childbearing and increased childlessness seem to be driving the fertility decline, these factors do not appear to be as influential in Russia. Instead, the problem seems to be the relatively low frequency of second and higher-order births, which persists despite major changes to pro-natalist policies introduced in 2007 and the prevalence of the two-child ideal of family size. This study analyzes current and prospective fertility trends in contemporary Russia, with special attention to second-child birth dynamics and its determinants. Stable employment and accessibility of formal childcare options are found to be factors that are correlated with mothers preferences for additional children and the probability that they will have a second child. In light of this observation and international experience, a menu of policies to improve work-family balance is suggested.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOLIVING STANDARDSPOPULATION INCREASEUNITED NATIONS POPULATION DIVISIONCAREGIVERSUNEMPLOYMENT RATESREPRODUCTIVE HEALTHYOUNG ADULTHOODWORKFORCEECONOMIC GROWTHQUALITY OF SERVICESWORKING-AGE POPULATIONDEPENDENT CHILDRENOPPORTUNITIES FOR WOMENFIRST CHILDHIGH DEATH RATESFAMILY SUPPORTHIGH BIRTH RATELABOR FORCEWOMEN OF CHILDBEARING AGEREPLACEMENT LEVELFERTILITY PATTERNSACCESS TO CONTRACEPTIVESHEALTH CAREIMMIGRANTSGENDER EQUITYGENDER PARITYDEMOGRAPHIC POLICIESNATIONAL GOVERNMENTSCHILD BIRTHYOUNG MOTHERSFERTILITY TRENDSFUTURE GENERATIONSVULNERABILITYPOPULATION SIZEGOVERNMENT SUPPORTPOPULATION AND DEVELOPMENTOLD-AGELONGER LIFEPUBLIC HEALTHEFFECTIVE POLICIESLIFE EXPECTANCYDEMOGRAPHERSPUBLIC POLICYLABOR MARKETMATERNITY LEAVEFAMILY POLICIESDECENT HEALTH CARENEWBORNSGENDER GAPTRAININGGENDER STEREOTYPESEDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENTPOPULATION GROWTHPOPULATION DIVISIONFERTILITY RATESFAMILY SIZEBABYIDEAL NUMBER OF CHILDRENDEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONSSECONDARY SCHOOLCITIZENFERTILITY RATEBIRTH RATESMIGRATIONEMERGENCIESCHILDBEARING AGEADOPTIONHOUSEHOLD INCOMEGENDER INEQUALITIESMEDICAL CAREMARRIAGESOCIAL SECURITYLARGER FAMILIESDEPENDENCY RATIOSPRIMARY SCHOOLSUPPORT TO FAMILIESGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTCHILD CAREHEALTH CARE SYSTEMELDERLYWORKING MOTHERSEDUCATED WOMENINFORMATION CAMPAIGNSMARKET ECONOMYUNEMPLOYMENTEDUCATED MOTHERSCHILDBIRTHDEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITIONHUMAN CAPITALINFANTEMPLOYMENT OF WOMENYOUNG ADULTSPOLICIESCONTRACEPTIVESIMMIGRATION POLICYWOMANPENSIONSSINGLE CHILDMARRIED COUPLESSOCIAL POLICYREPRODUCTIVE INTENTIONSLABOUR MARKETGOVERNMENT OFFICESWOMEN DURING PREGNANCYSAFETY NETPUBLIC AWARENESSIMPACTS OF POPULATIONREPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIORFEWER CHILDRENGLOBAL POPULATIONEARLY CHILDHOODREGIONAL INITIATIVESENHANCING WOMENPOPULATION RESEARCHPOPULATION CONFERENCEIMPACT ON FERTILITYPOPULATIONSMOTHERYOUNG CHILDRENCHILDBEARINGPOLICYOLDER WOMENREPRODUCTIVE AGELARGE FAMILIESSOCIAL POLICIESSMALLER FAMILIESNUMBER OF WOMENCHILDREN PER WOMANSEXFIRST BIRTHGOVERNMENT POLICIESMODERN CONTRACEPTIVESPREGNANT WOMENPARTICIPATION OF WOMENWORKING CONDITIONSWARTRAINING OPPORTUNITIESPARENTAL LEAVENUMBER OF BIRTHSRURAL AREASNUMBER OF CHILDRENFEMALE LABOR FORCEILLNESSIMMIGRATIONNUMBER OF ABORTIONSNUMBER OF DEATHSLOWER FERTILITYNATIONAL COUNCILPOPULATIONDEATH RATESMARITAL STATUSFAMILY RESPONSIBILITIESLIVING CONDITIONSMARRIED WOMENLOW FERTILITYFERTILITYWOMENNEWBORNFERTILITY DECLINEDEMOGRAPHIC POLICYPREGNANCYFIRST BIRTHSABORTIONDECLINE IN FERTILITYNUMBER OF CHILDREN PER WOMANWorking PaperWorld Bank10.1596/22614