World Bank2013-10-032013-10-032013-06https://hdl.handle.net/10986/16080This report presents the findings of a study aiming to define the least cost short (up to 2015) and medium term (up to 2020) measures that the Government of Bulgaria (GoB) can implement to meet gas security of supply requirements seen in the light of Bulgaria's vulnerability to gas supply disruptions and its increasingly important role for regional gas cross-border transmission and trade. Bulgarian gas demand is of modest size (3.0 bcm in 2011) and natural gas only plays a small role in Bulgaria's energy mix (14 percent of the total primary energy supply). Over the next ten years gas demand patterns are likely to change, however, and consumption levels are expected to grow steadily. The growth rate of gas demand and its importance in the supply mix will be driven by choices of electricity generation strategy and the rate of household gasification. There is a significant risk that a gas-focused electricity strategy would reduce Bulgaria's overall security of supply. However, this would only be the case if the new gas supply was contracted from the same sources and routes as the existing contracts (from Russia via Ukraine) and if the gas-fired power plants did not have back-up fuels. Conversely, if Bulgaria is able to secure new gas contracts from other sources delivered via new routes, and if back-up fuels are provided at those plants, then Bulgaria could increase its gas consumption while increasing its overall energy security of supply. This issue is at the core of the present report.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOALLOCATIONALTERNATIVE FUELALTERNATIVE FUELSANNUAL COSTANNUAL COSTSANNUAL GROWTH RATEAPPROACHAVAILABILITYBALANCEBILATERAL DONORSBORDER TRADEBORDER TRANSMISSIONCALCULATIONCAPACITY UTILIZATIONCAPITAL COSTCAPITAL COSTSCARBONCARBON DIOXIDECHEMICALSCLEANER ENERGYCLIMATECLIMATE POLICYCOCO2CO2 EMISSIONSCOALCOLORSCOMPRESSED NATURAL GASCOMPRESSOR STATIONCONSTRUCTIONCONTRACTUAL ARRANGEMENTSCOST OF GASDEMAND FOR GASDEMAND FORECASTDEPOTSDISCOUNT FACTORDISTRIBUTION COMPANIESDISTRIBUTION NETWORKSDISTRICT HEATINGDOMESTIC GASDOMESTIC PRODUCTIONDOMESTIC SUPPLYDOMESTIC USEDRASTIC MEASURESECONOMIC ACTIVITYECONOMIC GROWTHECONOMIC IMPACTEFFICIENCY GAINSEIELECTRICITYELECTRICITY DEMANDELECTRICITY GENERATIONELECTRICITY SUPPLYELECTRICITY SYSTEMEMISSIONSENERGY DEMANDENERGY EFFICIENCYENERGY GENERATIONENERGY MIXENERGY POLICYENERGY SAVINGSENERGY SECURITYENERGY STRATEGYEXTRACTIONFEASIBILITYFOSSILFOSSIL FUELFUELFUEL COSTSFUEL SOURCESFUELSGASGAS COMPANYGAS CONSUMERGAS CONSUMPTIONGAS CONTRACTSGAS CORRIDORGAS DEMANDSGAS DISTRIBUTIONGAS DISTRIBUTION NETWORKGAS FIELDGAS FIELDSGAS FLOWGAS IMPORTGAS IMPORTSGAS INFRASTRUCTUREGAS MARKET DEVELOPMENTSGAS MARKET OPPORTUNITIESGAS MARKETSGAS NETWORKSGAS PIPELINEGAS PIPELINESGAS POLICYGAS PRODUCTIONGAS RESERVESGAS RESOURCESGAS SALEGAS SECURITY OF SUPPLYGAS STORAGE CAPACITYGAS SUPPLIERGAS SUPPLIERSGAS SUPPLIESGAS SUPPLYGAS SUPPLY INFRASTRUCTUREGAS SUPPLY SECURITYGAS SYSTEMSGAS TRANSMISSIONGAS TRANSMISSION PIPELINEGAS TRANSMISSION SYSTEMGAS TRANSPORTATIONGAS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMGAS TURBINEGAS USEGAS UTILIZATIONGASIFICATIONGENERATION CAPACITYGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTHEATHEAT GENERATIONHEAVY FUEL OILHEAVY INDUSTRYHIGHER GASHOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTIONIMPORT TERMINALSINCOMEINDUSTRIAL SECTORINFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTLDCLDCSLIQUEFIED NATURAL GASLNGLNG FACILITIESLNG TANKERSLNG TERMINALLNG TERMINALSLOAD FACTORMARKET FOR GASNATIONAL GASNATIONAL TRANSMISSIONNATIONAL TRANSMISSION SYSTEMNATURAL GASNATURAL GAS DEMANDNATURAL GAS MARKETNEGATIVE IMPACTNUCLEAR PLANTNUCLEAR POWERNUCLEAR POWER GENERATIONNUCLEAR POWER PLANTOFFSHORE GASPEAK DEMANDPIPEPIPELINEPIPELINE IMPORTSPIPELINE PROJECTPIPELINE ROUTEPIPELINE SYSTEMSPOWERPOWER CAPACITYPOWER FACILITIESPOWER GENERATIONPOWER GENERATION EXPANSIONPOWER GENERATION FACILITIESPOWER PLANTSPOWER SECTORPOWER SECTORSPOWER STATIONSPRIMARY ENERGYPRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTIONPRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLYPRIVATE PARTIESPROBABLE RESERVESRESERVE MARGINRESIDENTIAL CONSUMERSSCENARIOSSENSITIVITY ANALYSESSHIPSSPOT MARKETSSTORAGE FACILITIESSTREAMSUPPLIER OF GASSUPPLY SIDESUSTAINABLE ENERGYTEMPERATURETHERMAL POWERTHERMAL POWER PLANTTOTAL CONSUMPTIONTOTAL COSTSTOTAL DEMANDTRADING PARTNERSTRANSIT GASTRANSMISSION CAPACITYTRANSMISSION ENTITYTRANSMISSION GRIDTRANSMISSION SYSTEMUNDERGROUND GAS STORAGEUNDERGROUND STORAGEUNDERGROUND STORAGE FACILITYWorld Bank10.1596/16080