van Wijnbergen, SwederBudina, Nina2012-06-062012-06-062007-03https://hdl.handle.net/10986/7249Fiscal sustainability analysis (FSA) is an important component of macroeconomic analysis. The authors review various quantitative approaches to FSA with a major objective to bring these approaches together and to present a user-friendly tool for FSA that reflects modern developments. They combine a dynamic simulations approach with a simplified version of the steady-state consistency approach. They also incorporate two different methods to deal with uncertainty: user-defined stress tests and stochastic simulations. The tool goes further by evaluating the required fiscal adjustment as a consequence of the stochastic realizations of the exogenous variables. Furthermore, the fiscal sustainability tool incorporates an endogenous debt feedback rule for the primary surplus, a fiscal policy reaction function. Besides outlining the theoretical framework, the authors also present a case study for Turkey.CC BY 3.0 IGOACCOUNTINGACCOUNTING FRAMEWORKBALANCE OF PAYMENTSBANK DEPOSITSBANK RECAPITALIZATIONBANKING SYSTEMBASE YEARBENCHMARKINGBORROWING COSTSBUDGET CONSTRAINTBUDGET SURPLUSBUDGETARY PROCESSESBUSINESS CYCLESCAPITAL FLOWSCAPITAL INFLOWSCENTRAL BANKCONSOLIDATIONCURRENCY MISMATCHESCURRENT ACCOUNTCURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITCURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITSDEBTDEBT BURDENDEBT CRISISDEBT DECOMPOSITIONDEBT DYNAMICSDEBT MANAGEMENTDEBT MANAGEMENT POLICIESDEBT OVERHANGDEBT POLICYDEBT PROBLEMDEBT RATIODEBT RATIOSDEBT REDUCTIONDEBT STOCKDEBT STOCKSDEBT STRUCTUREDEBT SUSTAINABILITYDEFICIT REDUCTIONDEFICITSDEVALUATIONDISCOUNTED VALUEDOMESTIC DEBTECONOMIC GROWTHELASTICITYEXCHANGE RATEEXOGENOUS VARIABLESEXTERNAL BORROWINGEXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBTEXTERNAL SHOCKSFINANCIAL CRISISFINANCIAL SECTORFINANCIAL STRUCTUREFISCAL ADJUSTMENTFISCAL ASSUMPTIONSFISCAL BALANCEFISCAL DEFICITFISCAL DEFICITSFISCAL PLANSFISCAL POLICIESFISCAL POLICYFISCAL REACTIONFISCAL SURPLUSFISCAL SUSTAINABILITYFORECASTSFOREIGN CURRENCY DEBTFOREIGN DEBTFOREIGN EXCHANGEFOREIGN INTEREST RATEGDPGDP DEFLATORGNPGROWTH RATEGROWTH RATESINCOMEINFLATIONINFLATION RATEINTEREST INCOMEINTEREST RATESLIQUID ASSETSLIQUIDITYMACROECONOMIC ANALYSISMACROECONOMIC POLICIESMACROECONOMIC STABILITYMACROECONOMIC STABILIZATIONMONETARY POLICYNET DEBTNET EXTERNAL DEBTNOMINAL INTEREST RATEOPPORTUNITY COSTPOLICY PACKAGEPRIVATE SECTORPRIVATIZATIONPUBLICPUBLIC DEBTPUBLIC DEBT MANAGEMENTPUBLIC FINANCEPUBLIC SECTORPUBLIC SECTOR BORROWINGPUBLIC SECTOR DEBTPUBLIC SECTOR DEFICITRATE OF INFLATIONREAL EXCHANGE RATEREAL GDPREAL GROWTHREAL INTEREST RATEREAL INTEREST RATESREAL VALUE OF MONEYREFORM PROGRAMSREGRESSION ANALYSISRESERVE REQUIREMENTSSHORT-TERM DEBTSIMULATION TECHNIQUESSTABILIZATION EFFORTSSTABILIZATION POLICIESSTOCK OF DEBTTAXTAX REVENUESWEALTHWorld Bank10.1596/1813-9450-4169