Ravallion, Martin2012-06-182012-06-182005-06https://hdl.handle.net/10986/8341The author critically reviews the methods available for the ex-post counterfactual analysis of programs that are assigned exclusively to individuals, households, or locations. The discussion covers both experimental and non-experimental methods (including propensity-score matching, discontinuity designs, double and triple differences, and instrumental variables). Two main lessons emerge. First, despite the claims of advocates, no single method dominates; rigorous, policy-relevant evaluations should be open-minded about methodology. Second, future efforts to draw more useful lessons from evaluations will call for more policy-relevant measures and deeper explanations of measured impacts than are possible from the classic ("black box") assessment of mean impact.CC BY 3.0 IGOACTIVE LABOR MARKET PROGRAMSAGRICULTURAL EXTENSIONAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITYAID DONORSANTI-POVERTYANTIPOVERTY PROGRAMSCASH TRANSFERSCHILD MORTALITYCHILD NUTRITIONCOMPARISON GROUPSCONSUMPTION EXPENDITURESCONTROL GROUPSCOUNTERFACTUALCOUNTERFACTUALSDATA COLLECTIONDEVELOPMENT RESEARCHDIFFERENCE ESTIMATORSECONOMIC GROWTHEGSEMPLOYMENT GUARANTEE SCHEMEEMPLOYMENT PROGRAMSEVALUATION DESIGNEVALUATION METHODSEVALUATORSEXPERIMENTSFARM ACTIVITIESFARMERSFIELD WORKFINANCIAL SUPPORTFLEXIBILITYFOOD CONSUMPTIONGDPHEADCOUNT INDEXHOUSEHOLD INCOMEHOUSEHOLD SIZEHOUSEHOLD SURVEYHOUSEHOLD SURVEY DATAIMPACT ASSESSMENTIMPACT EVALUATIONIMPACT ON POVERTYIMPACTS ON POVERTYINCIDENCE OF POVERTYINCOMEINCOME GAINSINEQUALITYINFRASTRUCTURE IMPROVEMENTSINSTRUMENTAL VARIABLESINSURANCEINTERVENTIONINTERVENTIONSINTERVIEWSLABOR MARKET PROGRAMSLABOR MARKETSLANDLESS HOUSEHOLDSLIVING STANDARDSLONGITUDINAL DATAMEASURES OF POVERTYMINIMUM INCOMEMODELINGMONITORING DATANONEXPERIMENTAL METHODSNUTRITIONNUTRITIONAL STATUSOUTCOME INDICATORSPOORPOOR AREASPOOR COUNTRIESPOOR FAMILIESPOOR INFRASTRUCTUREPOOR PEOPLEPOVERTY DYNAMICSPOVERTY IMPACTSPOVERTY INCIDENCEPOVERTY LINEPOVERTY LINESPOVERTY MEASURESPROGRAM COVERAGEPROGRAM EXPANSIONPROGRAMSPROJECT MONITORINGPUBLIC SPENDINGQUANTITATIVE SURVEYSRESEARCH WORKING PAPERSRURALRURAL INFRASTRUCTURERURAL ROADRURAL ROADSSANITATIONSELECTION BIASSIMULATIONSIMULATION METHODSSIMULATIONSSOCIAL EXPERIMENTSSOCIAL FUNDSSOCIAL SPENDINGSPECIFICATION TESTSSURVEY DATASURVEY DESIGNTARGETINGTRAINING PROGRAMSTREATMENT EFFECTSVALIDITYWAGESWEIGHTINGWorld Bank10.1596/1813-9450-3625