Mu, RenChen, ShaohuaRavallion, Martin2012-05-292012-05-292008-03https://hdl.handle.net/10986/6590The paper revisits the site of a large, World Bank-financed, rural development program in China 10 years after it began and four years after disbursements ended. The program emphasized community participation in multi-sectoral interventions (including farming, animal husbandry, infrastructure and social services). Data were collected on 2,000 households in project and nonproject areas, spanning 10 years. A double-difference estimator of the program's impact (on top of pre-existing governmental programs) reveals sizeable short-term income gains that were mostly saved. Only modest gains to mean consumption emerged in the longer term-in rough accord with the gain to permanent income. Certain types of households gained more than others. The educated poor were under-covered by the community-based selection process-greatly reducing overall impact. The main results are robust to corrections for various sources of selection bias, including village targeting and interference due to spillover effects generated by the response of local governments to the external aid.CC BY 3.0 IGOACCESS TO CREDITACCESS TO SERVICESACCOUNTINGACCURATE ESTIMATESAGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENTAGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT BANKAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITYAID EFFECTIVENESSANNUAL INCOMEANNUAL RETURNSANTI-POVERTYANTI-POVERTY POLICIESARBITRAGEASSETSAVAILABILITY OF CREDITBANK LOANSBENEFICIARYBIASESCALCULATIONSCAPITAL MARKETSCAPITAL STOCKSCAPITAL-MARKETCASH EXPENDITURECASH TRANSFERSCDCOMMODITIESCOMMUNITY GROUPSCOMMUNITY PARTICIPATIONCOMPARATIVE ECONOMICSCONSTRAINTS ON ACCESSCONTINGENCIESCONTRIBUTIONCOUNTERFACTUALCREDIT CONSTRAINTSCREDIT MARKETCREDIT MARKET FAILURESDAY-CAREDEBTDEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCEDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSDEVELOPMENT PROJECTSDRINKING WATERECONOMETRICSECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTECONOMIC GROWTHECONOMIC RESEARCHECONOMIC THEORYEDUCATION LEVELELEMENTARY SCHOOLENDOWMENTSENROLLMENTENROLMENT RATESETHNIC MINORITIESEVALUATION METHODSEXPENDITURESEXTREME POVERTYFAMILY MEMBERFAMILY MEMBERSFARM EMPLOYMENTFARM ENTERPRISESFARM INCOMEFARM PRODUCTIVITYFARMERSFOOD STAPLESFORM OF CREDITFORM OF SAVINGFUTURE INCOMEGENDERGROWTH RATEHEALTH INSURANCEHOUSEHOLD HEADHOUSEHOLD INCOMEHOUSEHOLD PARTICIPATIONHOUSEHOLD SAVINGHOUSEHOLD SIZEHOUSEHOLD SURVEYHOUSEHOLD SURVEYSHOUSEHOLDSICRIMPACT EVALUATIONIMPACT ON POVERTYIMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION REPORTINCOMEINCOME GAINSINCOME GROUPINCOME IMPACTSINCOME INEQUALITYINCOME LEVELSINCOME POVERTYINCOMESINEQUALITIESINEQUALITYINFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTSINFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTSINSURANCEINTEREST PAYMENTSINTEREST RATEINTEREST RATESINTERVENTIONIRRIGATIONJOB TRAININGLABOR MOBILITYLACK OF CAPITALLAND QUALITYLIQUIDITYLOANLOAN ACTIVITYLOAN AMOUNTSLOAN REPAYMENTLOAN REPAYMENTSLOW INCOMELOW-INCOMELOW-INCOME GROUPMARGINAL PRODUCTMARGINAL PRODUCTSMARKET FAILURESMATCHING METHODSMIGRANT WORKERSOUTCOME INDICATORSPARTICIPATORY PROCESSESPERMANENT INCOMEPERMANENT INCOME HYPOTHESISPOLITICAL ECONOMYPOORPOOR AREASPOOR COUNTRIESPOOR INFRASTRUCTUREPOVERTY IMPACTPOVERTY IMPACTSPOVERTY INCIDENCEPOVERTY INDEXPOVERTY LINEPOVERTY LINESPOVERTY MEASURESPOVERTY MONITORINGPOVERTY POLICIESPOVERTY POVERTYPOVERTY RATEPOVERTY RATESPOVERTY REDUCTIONPOVERTY REDUCTION PROJECTPRECAUTIONARY SAVINGPRECAUTIONARY SAVINGSPRIVATE INVESTMENTPROBABILITYPRODUCTION COSTSPRODUCTION FUNCTIONSPRODUCTION INPUTSPRODUCTIVE ASSETSPROGRAMSPUBLIC ECONOMICSPUBLIC GOODSPUBLIC SPENDINGPURCHASING POWERPURCHASING POWER PARITYQUESTIONNAIRESRATE OF INTERESTRATE OF RETURNRATES OF INTERESTREFLEXIVE COMPARISONSREGIONAL POVERTYRELEVANT POPULATIONREMITTANCESREMOTE VILLAGESREPAYMENTREPAYMENT RATESREPAYMENTSRURALRURAL DEVELOPMENTRURAL ECONOMYRURAL HOUSEHOLDRURAL LIVING STANDARDSRURAL ROADSSALESAVINGSSAVINGS RATESELECTION BIASSOCIAL SERVICESSOURCES OF CREDITSOURCES OF FINANCETARGETINGTEACHER TRAININGTECHNICAL ASSISTANCETOTAL COSTTOTAL REVENUETRAINING PROGRAMTREATMENT EFFECTSTUITIONTYPES OF LOANSURBAN AREASVILLAGEVILLAGE CHARACTERISTICSWAGEWAGE INCOMEWEALTHWorld Bank10.1596/1813-9450-4084