Lin, Justin Yifu2012-03-192012-03-192011-06-01https://hdl.handle.net/10986/3466Economic development is a process of continuous industrial and technological upgrading in which any country, regardless of its level of development, can succeed if it develops industries that are consistent with its comparative advantage, determined by its endowment structure. The secret winning formula for developing countries is to exploit the latecomer advantage by building up industries that are growing dynamically in more advanced fast growing countries that have endowment structures similar to theirs. By following carefully selected lead countries, latecomers can emulate the leader-follower, flying-geese pattern that has served well successfully catching-up economies since the 18th century. The emergence of large middle-income countries such as China, India, and Brazil as new growth poles in the world, and their dynamic growth and climbing of the industrial ladder, offer an unprecedented opportunity to all developing economies with income levels currently below theirs --including those in Sub-Saharan Africa. Having itself been a "follower goose," China is on the verge of graduating from low-skilled manufacturing jobs and becoming a "leading dragon." That will free up nearly 100 million labor-intensive manufacturing jobs, enough to more than quadruple manufacturing employment in low-income countries. A similar trend is emerging in other middle-income growth poles. The lower-income countries that can formulate and implement a viable strategy to capture this new industrialization opportunity will set forth on a dynamic path of structural change that can lead to poverty reduction and prosperity.CC BY 3.0 IGOADVANCED COUNTRIESADVANCED COUNTRYADVANCED ECONOMIESAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITYAGRICULTURAL SECTORAGRICULTUREANNUAL GROWTHANNUAL GROWTH RATEBANKRUPTCYBILATERAL TRADEBUSINESS CLIMATEBUSINESS ENVIRONMENTBUSINESS OPPORTUNITIESCAPITAL ACCUMULATIONCAPITAL INTENSITYCAPITAL RATIOCLOSED ECONOMYCOLONIALISMCOMMODITIESCOMMODITYCOMMODITY EXPORTSCOMPARATIVE ADVANTAGECOMPARATIVE ADVANTAGESCOMPETITIVE MARKETCOMPETITIVE MARKETSCOMPETITIVENESSCONSUMER GOODSCREATION OF JOBSCREDIT RATIONINGCURRENCYCURRENCY APPRECIATIONDATA AVAILABILITYDATA SETSDEBTDEBT CRISISDEMOCRACYDEVELOPED COUNTRIESDEVELOPING COUNTRIESDEVELOPING COUNTRYDEVELOPING ECONOMIESDEVELOPING REGIONSDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSDEVELOPMENT GOALSDEVELOPMENT POLICYDEVELOPMENT STRATEGIESDEVELOPMENT STRATEGYDISTRIBUTION OF INCOMESDIVERSIFICATIONDIVIDENDSDOMESTIC ECONOMYECONOMIC ACTIVITIESECONOMIC ACTIVITYECONOMIC COMPETITIONECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTECONOMIC EFFICIENCYECONOMIC GROWTHECONOMIC HISTORYECONOMIC LIBERALIZATIONECONOMIC LITERATUREECONOMIC PERFORMANCEECONOMIC POWERSECONOMIC PROGRESSECONOMIC PROJECTIONSECONOMIC REFORMSECONOMIC STRUCTUREECONOMIC TAKEOFFECONOMIC THEORYECONOMICS RESEARCHECONOMIES OF SCALEEMERGING ECONOMIESEMERGING ECONOMYEMPIRICAL EVIDENCEEMPIRICAL LITERATUREEMPIRICAL REGULARITIESEMPIRICAL STUDIESEMPIRICAL WORKEXCHANGE RATESEXPORT MARKETSEXPORT SECTORSEXPORTSEXTERNALITIESEXTERNALITYEXTREME POVERTYFINANCIAL FLOWSFINANCIAL INSTITUTIONSFINANCIAL SYSTEMFOOD PRICESFOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTFOREIGN EXCHANGEFOREIGN FIRMSFOREIGN INVESTMENTGDPGDP PER CAPITAGLOBAL EXPORTSGLOBAL MARKETGLOBALIZATIONGOVERNMENT INTERVENTIONSGROWTH RATEGROWTH RATESHUMAN CAPITALINCOMEINCOME DISTRIBUTIONINCOME GROUPINCOME GROUPSINCOME GROWTHINCOME LEVELSINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTINDUSTRIAL ECONOMIESINDUSTRIAL POLICYINDUSTRIAL SECTORINDUSTRIALIZATIONINDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIESINFORMATION TECHNOLOGYINFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENTINTANGIBLEINTEREST RATESINTERNATIONAL LABOUR ORGANIZATIONLABOR FORCELABOR MARKETSLARGE-SCALE INVESTMENTLEGAL FRAMEWORKLIVING STANDARDSLONG-TERM GROWTHLOW-INCOME COUNTRIESLOW-INCOME COUNTRYLOW-INCOME ECONOMIESMACROECONOMIC ANALYSISMACROECONOMIC POLICIESMACROECONOMIC STABILITYMANUFACTURING INDUSTRIESMARKET FAILUREMARKET FAILURESMARKET PARTICIPANTSMARKET SHARESMIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIESMIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRYMOBILE PHONESMONOPOLYMULTIPLIER EFFECTSNATIONAL ECONOMIESNATIONAL INCOMENATURAL DISASTERSNATURAL RESOURCENATURAL RESOURCESOPEN ECONOMYPER CAPITA INCOMEPER CAPITA INCOME LEVELSPER CAPITA INCOMESPOLICY ANALYSISPOLICY MAKERSPOLICY RESEARCHPOOR COUNTRIESPOSITIVE EFFECTSPOVERTY RATESPOVERTY REDUCTIONPOWER PARITYPRIMARY PRODUCTSPRIVATE INVESTMENTPRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENTPRIVATE SECTOR GROWTHPRIVATIZATIONPRODUCT MARKETSPRODUCTION COSTSPRODUCTION STRUCTUREPRODUCTIVITYPRODUCTIVITY GROWTHPROTECTIONISMPURCHASING POWERRAPID GROWTHRAPID INDUSTRIALIZATIONREAL GDPRELATIVE IMPORTANCERELATIVE PRICESRENT SEEKINGRICH COUNTRIESRURAL AREASSECTORAL COMPOSITIONSMALL COUNTRIESSMALL ECONOMIESSTANDARD DEVIATIONSTATE-OWNED ENTERPRISESSTRUCTURAL CHANGESURPLUS LABORSUSTAINABLE GROWTHTAXTECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATIONTECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESSTELECOMMUNICATIONSTHIRD WORLDTOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITYTOTAL OUTPUTTRANSACTION COSTSTRANSPARENCYTRANSPARENCY INITIATIVEUNEMPLOYMENTUNSKILLED LABORURBAN AREASURBANIZATIONVALUE ADDEDVOLATILITYWAGE RATESWAGESWEALTHWORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORSWORLD ECONOMIESWORLD ECONOMYWORLD INVESTMENT REPORTWORLD MARKETSWorld Bank10.1596/1813-9450-5702