Lay, JannBussolo, Mauriziovan der Mensbrugghe, Dominique2012-06-222012-06-222006-02https://hdl.handle.net/10986/8780Over the medium time horizon, skill upgrading, differentials in sectoral technological progress, and migration of labor out of farming activities are some of the major structural adjustment factors shaping the evolution of an economy and its connected poverty trends. The main focus of the authors is understanding, for the case of Brazil, how a trade shock interacts with these structural forces and ascertaining whether it enhances or hinders medium-term poverty reduction. In particular, they consider the interactions between the migration of labor out of agriculture, a potentially important poverty reduction factor, and trade liberalization, which increases the price incentives to stay in agriculture. A recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium model simulates Doha scenarios and compares them against a business as usual scenario. The authors estimate the poverty effects using a microsimulation model that primarily takes into account individuals' labor supply decisions. Their analysis shows that trade liberalization does contribute to structural poverty reduction. But unless increased productivity and stronger growth rates are attributed to trade reform, its contribution to medium-term poverty reduction is rather small.CC BY 3.0 IGOADVERSE IMPACTAGRARIAN REFORMAGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIESAGRICULTURAL COMMODITIESAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENTAGRICULTURAL EXPORTSAGRICULTURAL INCOMESAGRICULTURAL OUTPUTAGRICULTURAL PERFORMANCEAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIONAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITYAGRICULTURAL SECTORAGRICULTURAL SECTORSAGRICULTURAL WAGESAGRICULTURAL WORKERSAGRICULTUREAVERAGE GROWTHAVERAGE GROWTH RATEAVERAGE WAGEBENCHMARKCAPITAL ACCUMULATIONCASH TRANSFER PROGRAMCHANGES IN POVERTYCHRONIC POVERTYDENSITY FUNCTIONDEREGULATIONDEVELOPING COUNTRIESDISTRIBUTIONAL DYNAMICSDISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACTDOMESTIC MARKETSDOMESTIC PRICESDRIVERSEARNINGECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTECONOMIC TRENDSEDUCATIONAL LEVELSELASTICITYELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTIONEMPLOYMENT HISTORIESEMPLOYMENT IN AGRICULTUREEMPLOYMENT LEVELSEMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIESENDOGENOUS VARIABLESEQUATIONSEQUILIBRIUMERROR TERMESTIMATION METHODESTIMATION RESULTSEXOGENOUS VARIABLESEXPECTED WAGESEXPLANATORY VARIABLESEXPORT TAXESEXPORTSEXTREME POVERTYFACTOR MARKETSFACTOR PRICESFAMILY MEMBERSFARMING ACTIVITIESFINDING EMPLOYMENTFISCAL POLICIESFIXED COSTSGENDERGOVERNMENT EXPENDITURESGROWTH RATEGROWTH RATESHEADCOUNT RATIOHIGH INEQUALITYHIGH INEQUALITY COUNTRIESHIGH POVERTYHOUSEHOLD ENTERPRISEHOUSEHOLD HEADHOUSEHOLD HEADSHOUSEHOLD INCOMEHOUSEHOLD SURVEYHOUSEHOLD SURVEYSHUMAN CAPITALIMPACT ON POVERTY REDUCTIONINCOMEINCOME DISTRIBUTIONINCOME DISTRIBUTIONSINCOME GAINSINCOME GENERATIONINCOMES FROM AGRICULTUREINFORMAL SECTORINTERNATIONAL TRADEJOBSLABOR DEMANDLABOR MARKETLABOR MARKET SEGMENTATIONLABOR MARKETSLABOR MOVEMENTSLABOR PRODUCTIVITYLABOR SUPPLIESLABOR SUPPLYLAND OWNERSHIPLAND REFORMLANDOWNERLIVESTOCKLIVESTOCK SECTORLOW SHAREMACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENTMARGINAL EFFECTMEDIUM TERMMICRO DATAMICRO MODELMULTILATERAL TRADENATURAL RESOURCESNEGATIVE EFFECTNEGATIVE EXTERNALITIESOCCUPATIONON-THE-JOB TRAININGPER CAPITA INCOMEPER CAPITA INCOMESPOLICY RESEARCHPOSITIVE EXTERNALITIESPOVERTY INCIDENCEPOVERTY LINESPOVERTY RATESPOVERTY REDUCINGPOVERTY REDUCTIONPOVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGIESPOVERTY TRAPSPRIMARY EDUCATIONPRODUCTION PROCESSPRODUCTION TECHNOLOGYPRODUCTIVITYPRODUCTIVITY GROWTHPUBLIC INVESTMENTREAL GDPREFORM PROGRAMREGRESSION ANALYSISRELATIVE INCOMESRELATIVE PRICESRISING UNEMPLOYMENTRISK AVERSIONRURAL AREASRURAL LIVELIHOODSRURAL POORRURAL POPULATIONRURAL POVERTYSCHOOLINGSELF-EMPLOYMENTSIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONSKILL UPGRADINGSKILLED WORKERSSMALL FARMSSTRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENTSTRUCTURAL CHANGETECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESSTOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITYTOTAL POVERTYTRADE LIBERALIZATIONTRADE POLICYTRADE REFORMSUNEMPLOYEDUNEMPLOYMENTUNEMPLOYMENT RATESUNEQUAL DISTRIBUTIONUNSKILLED LABORUNSKILLED WORKERSURBAN AREASURBAN POORURBAN POVERTYUTILITY FUNCTIONVALUE ADDEDWAGE DIFFERENTIALWAGE DIFFERENTIALSWAGE RATEWAGE RATESWAGESWORKERWORKERSWTOWorld Bank10.1596/1813-9450-3833