Djankov, SimeonGregory, NeilKlein, MichaelMartin, Facundo2017-05-302017-05-302012https://hdl.handle.net/10986/26781The paper is based on a scenario workshop held on January 20, 2009, where leading financial and private sector development experts from IFC, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank discussed the unfolding crisis. This paper is a product of the staff of the Financial and Private Sector Development Vice Presidency of the World Bank Group. The scenarios described in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank Group, its Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The scenarios described serve as the basis of a planning exercise and are not to be interpreted as forecasts or projections on the part of the World Bank Group or the authors of this paper. The purpose of this paper is to sketch scenarios taking into account the information currently at hand. In this way, scenarios can provide decision makers with alternative views of the future. Decision makers can test their strategies against the different ways in which the future might play out. Scenarios provide a framework for debate, leading to better policy making and strategies. They are especially useful in situations where major global changes are under way but there is huge uncertainty over what may happen. Staffs of the World Bank Group are providing these scenarios to help governments and organizations prepare for an uncertain future. Being well prepared and open to thinking about different outcomes is much better than continually being behind the curve and having to chase events.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOAGGREGATE DEMANDAGRICULTURAL BANKSARBITRATIONASSET PRICESBAILOUTSBALANCE SHEETSBANK ASSETSBANK HOLDINGBANK HOLDING COMPANIESBANK LENDINGBANKING SECTORBANKING SYSTEMSBANKRUPTCYBILATERAL TRADEBORROWINGBORROWING COSTSBUDGET DEFICITBUDGET SURPLUSCAPITAL ACCOUNTCAPITAL ALLOCATIONCAPITAL CONTROLSCAPITAL FLOWSCAPITAL INFLOWSCAPITAL MARKETSCAPITAL RATIOSCAPITAL REQUIREMENTSCENTRAL BANKCENTRAL BANK SUPPORTCENTRAL BANKSCOMMODITYCOMMODITY PRICESCONSUMER DEMANDCONSUMER SUBSIDIESCONSUMERSCONTINGENCY PLANSCONTINGENT LIABILITIESCREDIT CARDCREDIT CARD DEBTCREDIT GROWTHCROSS-BORDER CAPITALCURRENCYCURRENT ACCOUNTCURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITSDEEDSDEMOCRACYDEMOGRAPHICDEPOSITSDEVELOPING COUNTRIESDEVELOPING COUNTRYDEVELOPING ECONOMIESDEVELOPMENT BANKDEVELOPMENT BANKSDIRIGISTE MEASURESDOLLAR DEBTDOMESTIC BANKINGDOMESTIC CURRENCIESDOMESTIC EQUITIESDOMESTIC MARKETDUMPINGDURABLEDURABLE GOODSECONOMIC ACTIVITIESECONOMIC COOPERATIONECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTECONOMIC POLICYECONOMIC SYSTEMEMERGING ECONOMIESEMERGING MARKETEMERGING MARKET EQUITYEMERGING MARKETSENTREPRENEURSEQUITY MARKETEQUITY MARKETSEQUITY PRICESETHNIC MINORITIESEUROPEAN CENTRAL BANKEXCHANGE RATESEXPORTERSEXPORTSFEDERAL RESERVEFINANCIAL CRISISFINANCIAL FLOWSFINANCIAL GLOBALIZATIONFINANCIAL INNOVATIONFINANCIAL INSTITUTIONSFINANCIAL MARKETSFINANCIAL REGULATIONFINANCIAL RISKFINANCIAL SECTORFINANCIAL SECTOR REGULATIONFINANCIAL SYSTEMFINANCIAL SYSTEM DEVELOPMENTFINANCIAL SYSTEMSFIRM GROWTHFISCAL DEFICITFISCAL POLICIESFORECASTSFOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTFOREIGN EXCHANGEFOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVESFRAUDFREE MARKET ECONOMYFREE MARKETSFREE TRADEFREE TRADE AGREEMENTGDPGDP PER CAPITAGLOBAL ECONOMYGLOBAL TRADEGLOBALIZATIONGOVERNMENT INTERVENTIONGOVERNMENT SPENDINGGOVERNMENT SUPPORTGROWTH RATEGROWTH RATESHEDGE FUNDHOMEOWNERSHIPHOUSINGHOUSING PRICESINCOMEINCOME LEVELINFLATIONINFLATIONARY PRESSURESINFORMAL ECONOMYINFORMATION SYSTEMSINFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTSINSURANCEINSURANCE INDUSTRYINSURERINTEREST RATESINTERNATIONAL COOPERATIONINTERNATIONAL TRADEINVESTMENT BANKSINVESTMENT FLOWSLABOR MARKETSLEGAL TENDERLIQUIDITYLIQUIDITY RISKLONG-TERM INTERESTLONG-TERM INTEREST RATESLOW INTEREST RATESMAJORITY SHAREHOLDERSMANDATESMARKET CAPITALIZATIONMARKET ECONOMIESMARKET FAILURESMARKET INFRASTRUCTUREMARXISMMIGRANT WORKERSMIGRATIONMONETARY FUNDMONETARY FUNDSMONETARY POLICYMORTGAGEMORTGAGESMULTILATERAL TRADEMULTINATIONALSNATURAL RESOURCESNET CAPITALNEW MARKETSNEW PRODUCTSOIL PRICESOPEN MARKETOUTPUTPATENTSPENSIONPENSION FUNDPENSION FUNDSPERSONAL SAVINGSPORTFOLIOPOWER PARITYPRIVATE FINANCIAL MARKETSPRIVATE PENSIONPRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENTPRODUCT MARKETSPRODUCTION CAPACITYPRODUCTIVITYPROTECTIONISMPRUDENTIAL REGULATIONPUBLIC DEBTPUBLIC POLICYPURCHASING POWERPURCHASING POWER PARITYREAL ESTATEREAL GDPRECAPITALIZATIONRECESSIONREGIONAL DEVELOPMENT BANKSREGIONAL TRADEREGULATORSREMITTANCESRETAINED EARNINGSRETIREMENTRETURNRETURNSRISK MANAGEMENTSAFETY NETSSAVINGSSAVINGS RATESCANDALSSELF-REGULATIONSHAREHOLDERSSOCIAL SAFETY NETSSOVEREIGN BANKRUPTCIESSTART-UPSSTOCK MARKETSSUBSIDIARIESTAXTAX CONCESSIONSTRADE BLOCSTRADE DISPUTESTRADE PROTECTIONTRADINGTREASURIESUNEMPLOYMENTUNIONVENTURE CAPITALVOLATILITYWEALTHWITHDRAWALWORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORSWORLD ECONOMYWORLD TRADEWORLD TRADE ORGANIZATIONWTOWorking PaperWorld Bank10.1596/26781