Cai, YongyangSteinbuks, JevgenijsElliott, JoshuaHertel, Thomas W.2014-10-062014-10-062014-08https://hdl.handle.net/10986/20358The pattern of global land use has important implications for the world's food and timber supplies, bioenergy, biodiversity and other eco-system services. However, the productivity of this resource is critically dependent on the world's climate, as well as investments in, and dissemination of improved technology. This creates massive uncertainty about future land use requirements which compound the challenge faced by individual investors and governments seeking to make long term, sometimes irreversible investments in land conversion and land use. This study assesses how uncertainties associated with underlying biophysical processes and technological change in agriculture affect the optimal profile of land use over the next century, taking into account the potential irreversibility in these decisions. A novel dynamic stochastic model of global land use is developed, in which the societal objective function being maximized places value on food production, liquid fuels (including bio-fuels), timber production, and biodiversity. While the uncertainty in food crop yields has anticipated impact, the resulting expansion of crop lands and decline in forest lands is relatively small.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOABATEMENTAGRICULTURAL LANDAGRICULTURAL OUTPUTAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIONAGRICULTURAL SECTORAGRICULTUREALLOCATION OF LANDAMMONIAATMOSPHEREBARREN LANDSBASELINE LEVELSBEQUEST VALUEBIODIVERSITYBIOPHYSICAL ENVIRONMENTCARBONCARBON DIOXIDECARBON SEQUESTRATIONCARBON SEQUESTRATION CREDITSCARBON SYSTEMCARBON TAXESCHEMICAL ENGINEERINGCLIMATECLIMATE CHANGECLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTCLIMATE POLICIESCLIMATE POLICYCLIMATE SCENARIOSCLIMATIC CHANGECLIMATIC CONDITIONSCOCO2COMMERCIAL FORESTRYCONSUMER DEMANDCONVERGENCECROP LANDSDEBTDECISION MAKINGDEFORESTATIONDEFORESTATION RATESDEGRADATIONDEGRADED LANDSDEGREE DAYSDEMAND FOR CROPLANDDEMAND FOR ECOSYSTEM SERVICESDEMAND FOR ENERGYDEMAND FOR ENERGY SERVICESDEMAND FOR LANDDEMAND FOR TIMBERECOLOGICAL CONDITIONSECOLOGICAL ECONOMICSECOLOGICAL INTENSIFICATIONECOLOGICAL RESTORATIONECOLOGYECONOMETRIC ESTIMATESECONOMIC ANALYSISECONOMIC EFFECTSECONOMIC GROWTHECONOMIC WELFAREECONOMICSECOSYSTEMECOSYSTEM SERVICEECOSYSTEM SERVICESELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTIONEMISSIONEMISSIONSEMISSIONS CONTROLEMISSIONS FROM LAND-USE CHANGEEMISSIONS PREDICTIONENERGY CONSUMPTIONENERGY DEMANDENERGY ECONOMICSENERGY POLICYENERGY PRICESENERGY PRODUCTIONENERGY USEENVIRONMENTALENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENTENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICSENVIRONMENTAL GOODSENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCHENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCEENVIRONMENTAL SERVICESEQUILIBRIUMEROSIONETHANOLEXPENDITURESFERTILIZATIONFERTILIZERSFOOD PRODUCTIONFORESTFOREST AREAFOREST AREASFOREST CARBONFOREST CARBON SEQUESTRATIONFOREST CONSERVATIONFOREST CONVERSIONFOREST HARVESTINGFOREST LANDFOREST LANDSFOREST MANAGEMENTFOREST PRODUCTFOREST STRUCTUREFOREST TREEFORESTRYFORESTRY MANAGEMENTFORESTRY SECTORFORESTSFOSSIL FUELFOSSIL FUELSFUEL CONSUMPTIONFUEL SUPPLYFUELSGAS PRICESGAS RESERVESGCMGHGGLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGEGLOBAL ECOLOGYGLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGEGLOBAL LAND USEGLOBAL LAND-USEGREENHOUSEGREENHOUSE GASGREENHOUSE GASESINCOMEINTERMEDIATE INPUTSIPCCIRREVERSIBILITYLAND ACCESSLAND ALLOCATIONLAND ALLOCATION DECISIONSLAND AREALAND AREASLAND CONVERSIONLAND ECONOMICSLAND EXPANSIONLAND PROTECTIONLAND RESOURCESLAND USELAND USE CHANGELAND USE DATALAND USE DECISIONSLAND USE MODELLAND USESLAND-USELIQUID FUELSLOGGINGLOSS OF BIODIVERSITYMANAGED FORESTSMARKET PRICESNATURAL CAPITALNATURAL ECOSYSTEMSNATURAL FORESTSNATURAL GASNATURAL RESOURCESNH3NITROGENNITROGEN FERTILIZERSNUTRIENTSOILOIL EQUIVALENTOPTION VALUEOZONEPASTURESPETROLEUM PRODUCTSPLANT GROWTHPLANTINGPOPULATION GROWTHPOTASHPPPRECIPITATIONPRODUCTION COSTSPRODUCTION FUNCTIONSPRODUCTIVITY GROWTHPUBLIC GOODRISK MANAGEMENTTECHNOLOGICAL CHANGETECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESSTEMPERATURETERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMTIMBERTIMBER PROCESSINGTIMBER PRODUCTIONTIMBER PRODUCTSTREE SPECIESTREESTROPICAL RAINFORESTUNMANAGED FORESTSWOODWOOD PROCESSINGWORLD ENERGY10.1596/1813-9450-7009