World Bank2012-06-142012-06-142008-12https://hdl.handle.net/10986/8030It is now widely recognized that low-income countries in tropical and sub-tropical regions will be disproportionally affected by the adverse impacts of climate change. The combination of already fragile environments, dominance of climate-sensitive sectors in economic activity, and low autonomous adaptive capacity in these regions implies a high vulnerability to the harmful effects of global warming on agricultural production and food security, water resources, human health, physical infrastructure and ecosystems. Recent authoritative scientific assessments emphasize that, even under the most optimistic assumptions about the success of future global mitigation action, an acceleration of adaptation efforts in developing countries over the next decades is essential to build resilience and reduce damage costs. The effects of climate change vary across countries, and adaptation and coping capabilities are influenced by geographical, economic, cultural and political factors. Successful adaptation programs must therefore take into account country-specific circumstances. This pilot study aims to develop a methodology that provides an economy-wide framework for analyzing economic impacts from climate change and potential adaptation policies that developing countries might undertake in the near and long term. To accomplish this objective, the paper modifies and extends a dynamic, single-country prototype Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to include stochastic elements that are characteristic of climate change and a representation of the sectors that are most likely to be affected.CC BY 3.0 IGOABSORPTIONADVERSE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGEAGGREGATE DEMANDAGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENTAGRICULTURAL EXTENSIONAGRICULTURAL INCOMESAGRICULTURAL OUTPUTAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIONAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITYAGRICULTURAL RESEARCHAGRICULTURAL SECTORAGRICULTURAL SECTOR PERFORMANCEAGRICULTURAL SECTORSAGRICULTURAL VALUEAGRICULTUREAGRICULTURE SECTORAIRALLOWANCEALTITUDEANNUAL PRECIPITATIONARABLE LANDATMOSPHEREATMOSPHERE-OCEAN GENERAL CIRCULATIONBIOMASSCAPITAL STOCKSCARBONCARBON DIOXIDECARBON ENRICHMENTCASH CROPSCHEMICALSCLIMATECLIMATE ANALYSISCLIMATE CHANGECLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATIONCLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGYCLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTCLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENTSCLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTSCLIMATE CHANGE ISSUESCLIMATE CHANGE MODELSCLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOCLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGYCLIMATE CONDITIONSCLIMATE FACTORSCLIMATE IMPACTSCLIMATE MODELSCLIMATE OUTCOMESCLIMATE PREDICTIONCLIMATE REGIMECLIMATE SCIENCECLIMATE SENSITIVECLIMATE SHOCKCLIMATE VARIABILITYCLIMATE VARIABLESCLIMATE VARIATIONCLIMATE-SENSITIVE SECTORSCLIMATIC CHANGECLIMATIC CHANGESCLIMATIC CONDITIONSCLIMATIC FACTORSCLIMATIC VARIABILITYCLIMATIC VARIABLESCLIMATIC ZONESCOCO2COALCROPCROP MODELCROP PRODUCTIONCROP SIMULATIONCROP SIMULATION MODELCROP SIMULATION MODELSCROPLANDCROPLAND AREACROPSDAMAGESDEEP WELLSDEFORESTATIONDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSDROUGHTDUSTECOLOGICAL SYSTEMSECOLOGICAL ZONESECONOMIC ACTIVITYECONOMIC ANALYSISECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGEECONOMIC GROWTHECONOMIC GROWTH RATEECONOMIC IMPACTSECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATEECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGEECONOMIC MODELSECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGEECONOMY-WIDE IMPACTSELECTRIC POWERELECTRICITYELECTRICITY GENERATINGELECTRICITY GENERATIONELECTRICITY GENERATION CAPACITYEMISSIONEMISSION SCENARIOEMISSION SCENARIOSEMISSIONSEMISSIONS SCENARIOSESTIMATES OF CLIMATE CHANGEEVAPORATIONEVAPOTRANSPIRATIONEXOGENOUS SHOCKSEXTREME EVENTSEXTREME WEATHEREXTREME WEATHER EVENTSFARM OUTPUTFARMERSFARMINGFEASIBILITYFERTILIZATIONFERTILIZERFERTILIZER USEFERTILIZERSFLOODSFOOD SECURITYFORESTRYFUTURE CLIMATE CHANGESFUTURE CLIMATE VARIABILITYGASGCMGENERAL CIRCULATION MODELGENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELGENERATION CAPACITYGLOBAL CLIMATEGLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGEGLOBAL ENVIRONMENT FACILITYGLOBAL WARMINGGOLDGREENHOUSEGREENHOUSE EFFECTGREENHOUSE GASESHIGH-RAINFALL EVENTSHUMIDITYHYDROLOGICAL CYCLEIMPACT ANALYSISIMPACT OF CLIMATEIMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGEIMPACTS FROM CLIMATE CHANGEIMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITYIMPACTS ON TEMPERATUREIMPORTSINCOMEINCREASE IN TEMPERATUREINFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGEINTERNATIONAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGEIPCCIRRIGATION POTENTIALLABOR PRODUCTIVITYLAKESLAND DEGRADATIONLAND SURFACELOWER DEMANDMEAN RAINFALLMEAN TEMPERATURENEGATIVE IMPACTPER CAPITA INCOMEPESTICIDESPLANT GROWTHPOLICY ANALYSISPORTFOLIOPOWER SUPPLYPRECIPITATIONPRICE INDEXPRODUCER PRICEQUANTITATIVE ANALYSISRAINRAINFALLRAINFALL DATARAINFALL INTENSITYRAINFALL PATTERNSRAINFALL VARIABILITYRAINY SEASONRAINY SEASONSREGIONAL CLIMATEREGIONAL TEMPERATURESEASONSEASONAL CLIMATESEASONAL TEMPERATURESTORMSSUGAR CANESURFACE WATERTEMPERATURETEMPERATURE CHANGETEMPERATURE CHANGESTEMPERATURE RESPONSETEMPERATURE RISETEMPERATURESTEMPORAL VARIABILITYTOTAL ELECTRICITY GENERATIONTROPICAL CYCLONESTROPICAL REGIONSTROPICSTYPHOONSUNCERTAIN FUTURE CLIMATEVULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE VARIABILITYWATER HARVESTINGWEATHER EXTREMESWHEATWINDWIND FARMWIND FARMSWINTER TEMPERATUREWINTER TEMPERATURESWorld Bank10.1596/8030