Hochrainer, Stefan2012-03-192012-03-192009-06-01https://hdl.handle.net/10986/4162There is an ongoing debate on whether disasters cause significant macroeconomic impacts and are truly a potential impediment to economic development. This paper aims to assess whether and by what mechanisms disasters have the potential to cause significant GDP impacts. The analysis first studies the counterfactual versus the observed gross domestic product. Second, the analysis assesses disaster impacts as a function of hazard, exposure of assets, and, importantly, vulnerability. In a medium-term analysis (up to 5 years after the disaster event), comparing counterfactual with observed gross domestic product, the authors find that natural disasters on average can lead to negative consequences. Although the negative effects may be small, they can become more pronounced depending mainly on the size of the shock. Furthermore, the authors test a large number of vulnerability predictors and find that greater aid and inflows of remittances reduce adverse macroeconomic consequences, and that direct losses appear most critical.CC BY 3.0 IGOAGRICULTUREANALYSIS OF VARIANCEANNUAL GROWTHARIMAARMAASSETSAUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGEBUDGET DEFICITBUSINESS CYCLESCAPITAL ACCOUNTSCAPITAL FORMATIONCAPITAL INFLOWSCAPITAL STOCKCENTRE FOR RESEARCH ON THE EPIDEMIOLOGYCOMMODITY PRICECORRELATION ANALYSISCREDDAMAGESDEATH TOLLDEBTDEBT SERVICEDEPENDENT VARIABLEDEPENDENT VARIABLESDEPRECIATIONDESCRIPTIVE STATISTICSDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSDEVELOPMENT NETWORKDISASTERDISASTER COMMUNITYDISASTER EVENTDISASTER EVENTSDISASTER PREVENTIONDISASTER REDUCTIONDISASTER RISKDISASTER RISK MANAGEMENTDISASTER RISK REDUCTIONDISASTER RISKSDISASTER TYPEDOMESTIC CREDITDROUGHTDROUGHTSEARTHQUAKEEARTHQUAKESECONOMETRIC MODELSECONOMIC CONDITIONSECONOMIC ENVIRONMENTECONOMIC GROWTHECONOMIC MODELECONOMIC PERFORMANCEECONOMIC RISKERROR TERMSEXPORTSEXPOSUREEXTERNAL DEBTEXTERNAL SHOCKSEXTREME WEATHEREXTREME WEATHER EVENTSFINANCIAL IMPACTSFINANCIAL RISKFINANCIAL SECTORFINANCIAL VULNERABILITYFISCAL DEFICITFISCAL IMBALANCESFLOODFLOODSFORECASTSFOREIGN EXCHANGEFOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVESGDPGLOBALIZATIONGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTGROWTH RATEGROWTH RATESGROWTH THEORYHUMAN CAPITALHURRICANEIMPORTIMPORTSINCOMEINCOME GROUPSINDEBTEDNESSINDICATOR VARIABLESINFLATIONINSURANCEINSURANCE COMPANIESINVENTORYLOW-INCOME COUNTRIESMACROECONOMIC EFFECTSNATIONAL INCOMENATURAL CAPITALNATURAL CATASTROPHENATURAL CATASTROPHESNATURAL DISASTERNATURAL DISASTER REDUCTIONNATURAL DISASTERSNATURAL HAZARDNATURAL HAZARDSOPPORTUNITY COSTSOVERVALUATIONPER CAPITA INCOMEPOLITICAL ECONOMYPRICE FLUCTUATIONSPUBLIC DEFICITPUBLIC DEFICITSREAL EXCHANGE RATEREAL GDPRECONSTRUCTIONREGRESSION ANALYSISREINSURANCEREJECTIONRELIEFREMITTANCESRISK TRANSFERSTANDARD DEVIATIONSTATISTICAL ANALYSESSTOCHASTIC ERRORSTORMSTORMSSUPPLY SIDESYSTEMS ANALYSISTIME HORIZONTOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITYTOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTHTRADE BALANCESTRADE DEFICITTROPICAL CYCLONESUNCERTAINTIESUNCERTAINTYVOLCANIC ERUPTIONSWEALTHWINTER STORMSWORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORSWorld Bank10.1596/1813-9450-4968