Havlík, PetrValin, HugoGusti, MykolaSchmid, ErwinLeclère, DavidForsell, NicklasHerrero, MarioKhabarov, NikolayMosnier, AlineCantele, MatthewObersteiner, Michael2015-12-182015-12-182015-11https://hdl.handle.net/10986/23441This paper conducts an integrated assessment of climate change impacts and climate mitigation on agricultural commodity markets and food availability in low- and middle-income countries. The analysis uses the partial equilibrium model GLOBIOM to generate scenarios to 2080. The findings show that climate change effects on the agricultural sector will increase progressively over the century. By 2030, the impact of climate change on food consumption is moderate but already twice as large in a world with high inequalities than in a more equal world. In the long run, impacts could be much stronger, with global average calorie losses of 6 percent by 2050 and 14 percent by 2080. A mitigation policy to stabilize climate below 2°C uniformly applied to all regions as a carbon tax would also result in a 6 percent reduction in food availability by 2050 and 12 percent reduction by 2080 compared to the reference scenario. To avoid more severe impacts of climate change mitigation on development than climate change itself, revenue from carbon pricing policies will need to be redistributed appropriately. Overall, the projected effects of climate change and mitigation on agricultural markets raise important issues for food security in the long run, but remain more limited in the medium term horizon of 2030. Thus, there are opportunities for low- and middle-income countries to pursue immediate development needs and thus prepare for later periods when adaptation needs and mitigation efforts will become the greatest.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOALBEDOPHOTOSYNTHESISDIVERGENCEEMISSIONS REDUCTIONFOREST DEGRADATIONALTITUDEEMISSIONS FROM LAND USEEMISSION ABATEMENTTEMPERATURECLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATIONFOREST MANAGEMENTABSORPTIONRELATIVE HUMIDITYGREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONSWIND SPEEDCARBONGLOBAL WARMINGCONCENTRATESESTIMATES OF CARBONMETEOROLOGYWINDEMISSIONSFOREST PLANTATIONSATMOSPHEREINCENTIVESGHGSEVAPOTRANSPIRATIONGASGLOBAL GREENHOUSE GASCLOUDINESSHUMIDITYRADIATIVE FORCINGGLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONSCARBON CYCLE FEEDBACKSBIOSPHERESOLAR RADIATIONEMISSION REDUCTIONSLAND USEAIRGREENHOUSE GASCARBON CYCLEATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATIONOIL PALMEMISSIONS ABATEMENTCARBON CAPTURELAND USE CHANGEEMISSIONS FROM AGRICULTUREFERTILIZERSRADIATIONBIOMASSCARBON NEUTRALFOREST SECTORCO2GREENHOUSE GAS MITIGATIONTROPICSATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATIONEMISSIONS FROM AGRICULTURENEGATIVE IMPACTEMISSION INCREASEBIOMASS RESOURCESEMISSIONS FROM LAND USE CHANGECARBON CAPTUREENERGY SOURCESEMISSION LEVELSCAPACITYGHGGLOBAL EMISSIONS REDUCTIONFOREST MODELEMISSION LEVELSGLOBAL WARMINGEMISSIONS FROM LAND USELAND USE CHANGECARBON SEQUESTRATIONSURFACE TEMPERATUREFORESTRYEMISSIONS REDUCTIONSTROPICAL FORESTSSUGAR CANECARBON SINKCLIMATE CHANGEHISTORICAL EMISSIONSFOREST LOSSFOREST CARBON STOCKGAS EMISSIONSENERGY POLICYPRECIPITATIONCULTIVATED LANDEMISSIONS REDUCTIONCLIMATE SENSITIVITYGREENHOUSE GASESCARBON PRICESCARBON EMISSIONSLAND USEEMISSIONS REDUCTIONSAGRICULTURAL EMISSIONSFOREST CARBONGREENHOUSEEMISSIONCARBON PRICELEADATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATIONSFOREST SECTORSANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSE GASIPCCCLIMATE CHANGEDROUGHTAIR MOISTUREEMISSION PATHWAYSLAND COVER CHANGERADIATIVE FORCINGFOREST DYNAMICSCLIMATEDEFORESTATIONSOLAR RADIATIONFORESTSEMISSIONS FROM LAND USEEMISSION PATHWAYSFOREST CARBON STOCKSANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSE GASCLIMATE SYSTEMTROPICAL DEFORESTATIONCARBON PRICECLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATIONHISTORICAL EMISSIONSFORESTCARBON SEQUESTRATIONOZONE CONCENTRATIONGLOBAL EMISSIONSCARBON FLUXESFERTILIZATIONGLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGEANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSEANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONSFOREST SECTORENERGY PRODUCTIONWOODY BIOMASSPROTEINSENERGY EFFICIENCYFOREST METEOROLOGYBIOMASS ENERGYCARBON PRICESENERGY PRODUCTIONCOMBUSTIONCARBON STOCKEMISSIONS FROM DEFORESTATIONNITROGENOZONEANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSEWOODY BIOMASSCARBON STOCKSTROPOSPHERIC OZONEATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATIONSRELATIVE HUMIDITYRAINCLIMATE SYSTEMFOREST PLANTATIONSGCMCARBON SINKSURFACE TEMPERATUREAIR MOISTUREGASESCARBON TAXFOREST AREAFOREST AREAGLOBAL FORESTAFFORESTATIONLAND‐USEWIND SPEEDPRICESNEGATIVE IMPACTSBENEFITSEMISSIONS FROM AGRICULTURESURFACE ALBEDOENERGYWorking PaperWorld Bank10.1596/1813-9450-7477