Jenkins, CarolRobalino, David A.El Maroufi, Karim2014-08-052014-08-052002-08https://hdl.handle.net/10986/19265The authors develop a model of optimal growth to assess the risks of an HIV/AIDS epidemic and the expected economic impact in nine countries in the Middle East and North Africa region-Algeria, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia, and Yemen. The model incorporates an HIV/AIDS diffusion component based on two transmission factors-sexual intercourse and exchange of infected needles among intravenous drug users. Given high levels of uncertainty on the model parameters that determine the dynamics of the epidemic and its economic impact, the authors explore large regions of the parameter space. The prevalence rates in year 2015 would be below 1 percent in 16 percent of the cases, while they would be above 3 percent in 50 percent of the cases. On average, GDP losses across countries for 2000-2025 could approximate 35 percent of today's GDP. In all countries it is possible to observe scenarios where losses surpass today's GDP. The authors quantify the impact of expanding condom use and access to clean needles for intravenous drug users. They show that these interventions act as an insurance policy that increases social welfare. They also show that delaying action for five years can cost, on average, the equivalent of six percentage points of today's GDP.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOABSENTEEISMACCESS TO CONDOMSAGEDAVERAGE COSTSCONDOM USECONDOMSDECISION MAKINGDISCOUNT RATESDISTORTIONARY EFFECTSDISTRIBUTION OF CONDOMSDRUG USEDRUG USERSECONOMETRIC ANALYSISECONOMIC CONSTRAINTSECONOMIC EFFICIENCYECONOMIC GROWTHECONOMIC IMPACTECONOMICSECONOMICS LITERATUREELASTICITYELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTIONEPIDEMICSEQUILIBRIUMEXPENDITURESFORECASTSGDPGDP PER CAPITAGROWTH RATEHARM REDUCTIONHEALTH CAREHEALTH CARE SYSTEMSHEALTH SERVICESHIVHOSPITALSHUMAN CAPITALHUMAN DEVELOPMENTINCOMEINFORMATION PROBLEMSINJECTING DRUG USERSINSURANCEINSURANCE MARKETSINTERVENTIONINTRAVENOUS DRUG USERSLABOR FORCELABOR MARKETSLABOR PRODUCTIVITYLABOR SUPPLYLOW PREVALENCEMARITAL SEXMIGRANTSMIGRATIONMORBIDITYNEEDLE SHARINGNEEDLESNEW INFECTIONSNUTRITIONAL STATUSOPTIMIZATIONORPHANSPANDEMICPATIENTSPOLICY RESEARCHPRESENT VALUEPREVENTIVE ACTIVITIESPREVENTIVE BEHAVIORSPRODUCTIVITYPRODUCTIVITY GROWTHPROSTITUTESREAL GDPREFUGEESRISK AVERSIONRISK FACTORSRISK OF TRANSMISSIONSAFE NEEDLESSAFETYSAVINGSSCHOOLSSCREENINGSEX WITH MENSEX WORKERSSEXUAL CONTACTSSEXUAL INTERCOURSESEXUAL PARTNERSSEXUAL TRANSMISSIONSEXUALLY TRANSMITTED DISEASESSINGLE PARENTSSOCIAL CAPITALSOCIAL COSTSSOCIAL WELFARESTDSTOTAL COSTSTOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITYTRANSMISSIONTROUGHUNAIDSUNDERESTIMATESUNEMPLOYMENTUNEMPLOYMENT RATESUTILITY FUNCTIONWELFARE GAINSWORKERSWORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION ACQUIRED IMMUNE DEFICIENCY SYNDROMEHIV VIRUSESIMPACT ASSESSMENTMACROECONOMIC CONTEXTRISK ASSESSMENTECONOMIC IMPACTDISEASE TRANSMISSIONEPIDEMICSGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTCONDOM PROMOTIONDRUG UTILIZATIONINSURANCE VALUESSOCIAL WELFARE10.1596/1813-9450-2874