Milberg, WilliamWinkler, Deborah2012-03-192012-03-192010-05-01https://hdl.handle.net/10986/3780The recent large and rapid slowdown in economic activity has resulted in even larger and more rapid declines in international trade. As world trade is set to rebound, this paper addresses three questions: (i) Will trade volumes rebound in a symmetric fashion as world economic growth rebounds? (ii) Will the crisis result in a change in the structure of trade, and in particular will it lead to a reversal of the pattern of more diversified sourcing and thus to a consolidation of global value chains? (iii) What policies can improve the prospects for developing country growth in the event that trade volumes do not rebound symmetrically and there is a consolidation of some global value chains?CC BY 3.0 IGOABSOLUTE VALUEAGGREGATE DEMANDANNUAL GROWTHAVERAGE COSTSBALANCE OF PAYMENTSBANK CREDITBARRIERSBENCHMARKBILATERAL EXCHANGE RATEBORROWERSBUSINESS CYCLEBUSINESS CYCLESBUSINESS INVESTMENTCAPITALCAPITAL ALLOCATIONCAPITAL FLOWSCAPITAL GOODCAPITAL GOODSCOMMODITIESCOMMODITYCOMMUNICATIONCOMPARATIVE ADVANTAGECONSOLIDATIONCONSUMER DEBTCONSUMER DEMANDCONSUMER DURABLESCONSUMER GOODSCONSUMPTIONCONSUMPTION EXPENDITURECONSUMPTION GOODCONSUMPTION GOODSCOST STRUCTURECREDITCRITERIACURRENT ACCOUNTCURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITCURRENT ACCOUNT IMBALANCEDEBTDEMAND DECLINESDEMAND GROWTHDEPRECIATIONDEPRESSIONDEPRESSIONSDEVELOPING COUNTRIESDEVELOPING COUNTRYDEVELOPING ECONOMIESDEVELOPMENTDEVELOPMENT STRATEGIESDOLLAR PEGDOMESTIC PRICEDURABLE GOODSECONOMETRICSECONOMIC ANALYSISECONOMIC CRISISECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTECONOMIC DOWNTURNECONOMIC DOWNTURNSECONOMIC GEOGRAPHYECONOMIC GROUPINGSECONOMIC GROWTHECONOMIC POLICYECONOMIC SLOWDOWNECONOMIC THEORYECONOMICSECONOMIESECONOMIES OF SCALEELASTICITYERROR CORRECTION MODELERROR CORRECTION TERMERROR TERMEXCHANGE RATE POLICYEXPANSIONARY FISCAL POLICYEXPORT CREDITEXPORT GROWTHEXPORT MARKETSEXPORT REVENUEEXPORT REVENUESEXPORT SHAREEXPORT SHARESEXPORTERSEXPORTSEXTERNAL TRADEFEDERAL RESERVEFEDERAL RESERVE BANKFINANCIAL ARCHITECTUREFINANCIAL CRISISFINANCIAL INSTRUMENTSFINANCIAL MANAGEMENTFINANCIAL MARKETFINANCIAL MARKETSFINANCIAL SERVICESFISCAL POLICYFIXED COSTSFORECASTSFOREIGN CURRENCYFOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTFOREIGN EXCHANGEFOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVESFUTUREGDPGEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTIONGLOBAL CORPORATIONSGLOBAL ECONOMICSGLOBAL ECONOMYGLOBAL EXPORTGLOBAL EXPORTSGLOBAL TRADEGLOBALIZATIONGOODSGOVERNANCEGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTGROWTH IN TRADEGROWTH POTENTIALGROWTH RATEGROWTH RATESHIGH-INCOME COUNTRIESIMBALANCESIMPORTIMPORT CONTENTIMPORT DEMANDIMPORT GROWTHIMPORT TARIFFIMPORTSIMPORTS GOODSINCOME ELASTICITIESINCOME ELASTICITYINDUSTRIAL COUNTRIESINDUSTRIAL ECONOMICSINFORMATION SERVICESINPUTSINSURANCEINTERNATIONAL BANKINTERNATIONAL BANKINGINTERNATIONAL TRADEINVENTORIESINVENTORYINVESTMENT DEMANDINVESTMENT GOODSLAGSLIBERALIZATION OF TRADELINES OF CREDITMACROECONOMIC CONDITIONSMAJOR CURRENCIESMARGINAL PRODUCTIVITYMARKET DEMANDMARKET FAILUREMARKET SHAREMARKET SHARESMARKETSMIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIESMIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIESMIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRYNATIONAL INCOMEOIL PRICESOUTPUTOUTSOURCINGPARTICULAR COUNTRIESPAYMENT GUARANTEESPAYMENT SYSTEMSPAYMENTSPOLITICAL ECONOMYPRICE ELASTICITIESPRIVATE SAVINGPRODUCTIONPRODUCTION COSTSPRODUCTION STRUCTUREPROTECTIONISMREAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATEREAL IMPORTREAL INCOMERECESSIONRECESSIONSRENTRESERVE ACCUMULATIONREVALUATIONRISKSECONDARY MARKETSIDE EFFECTSSLOWDOWNSPEED OF ADJUSTMENTSTRUCTURAL CHANGESUBSTITUTION EFFECTSUPPLIESSUPPLYSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENTTECHNOLOGICAL CHANGETELECOMMUNICATIONSTHEORYTOTAL EXPORTTOTAL EXPORTSTOTAL IMPORTSTOTAL MARKETTRADETRADE CREDITTRADE DATATRADE EXPANSIONTRADE FINANCETRADE FINANCINGTRADE GROWTHTRADE LIBERALIZATIONTRADE LOSSESTRADE OPENNESSTRADE PATTERNSTRADE PROTECTIONTRADE RELATIONTRADE STATISTICSTRADE TRANSACTIONSTRADING PARTNERSTRANSACTIONS COSTTRANSACTIONS COSTSTRENDSTROUGHUNCERTAINTYUNEMPLOYMENTUNEMPLOYMENT RATESVALUEVALUE ADDEDVARIABLE COSTSVARIABLE INPUTSVARIABLESVERTICAL INTEGRATIONVOLATILITYVOLUME OF TRADEWAGESWORLD DEMANDWORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORSWORLD ECONOMYWORLD MARKETWORLD MARKET SHAREWORLD TRADEWORLD TRADE ORGANIZATIONWTOWorld Bank10.1596/1813-9450-5294