Jones, SamSantos, RicardoXirinda, Gimelgo2024-04-022024-04-022023-07-27The World Bank Economic Review0258-6770 (print)1564-698X (online)https://hdl.handle.net/10986/41350Biased beliefs about future labor-market earnings are commonplace. Based on a longitudinal survey of graduate work transitions in Mozambique, this study assesses the contribution of employment mismatches to a large positive gap between expected (ex-ante) and realized (ex post) earnings. Accounting for the simultaneous determination of pecuniary and non-pecuniary work characteristics, employment mismatches are found to be material and associated with large earnings penalties. A decomposition of these expectational errors shows that around two-thirds are attributable to employment mismatches, suggesting job seekers systematically overestimate the ease of securing good jobs.en-USCC BY-NC-ND 3.0 IGOJOBS MISMATCHMOZAMBIQUEBIASED BELIEFSTRACER STUDYWAGE EXPECTATIONSJournal ArticleWorld Bank10.1596/41350