De Hoyos, Rafael E.Bussolo, Mauriziovan der Mensbrugghe, DominiqueMedvedev, Denis2012-06-082012-06-082007-11https://hdl.handle.net/10986/7601Over the past 20 years, aggregate measures of global inequality have changed little even if significant structural changes have been observed. High growth rates of China and India lifted millions out of poverty, while the stagnation in many African countries caused them to fall behind. Using the World Bank's LINKAGE global general equilibrium model and the newly developed Global Income Distribution Dynamics (GIDD) tool, this paper assesses the distribution and poverty effects of a scenario where these trends continue in the future. Even by anticipating a deceleration, growth in China and India is a key force behind the expected convergence of per-capita incomes at the global level. Millions of Chinese and Indian consumers will enter into a rapidly emerging global middle class-a group of people who can afford, and demand access to, the standards of living previously reserved mainly for the residents of developed countries. Notwithstanding these positive developments, fast growth is often characterized by high urbanization and growing demand for skills, both of which result in widening of income distribution within countries. These opposing distributional effects highlight the importance of analyzing global disparities by taking into account - as the GIDD does - income dynamics between and within countries.CC BY 3.0 IGOACCELERATORACCOUNTINGAGGREGATE GROWTHAGRICULTURAL OUTPUTAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIONAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITYAGRICULTUREAMOUNT OF SAVINGSANNUAL RATEAVERAGE ANNUALAVERAGE GROWTHAVERAGE INCOMEAVERAGE INCOMESAVERAGE RATEBASE YEARCALCULATIONCALCULATIONSCAPITAL ACCUMULATIONCAPITAL STOCKSCOMPARATIVE ADVANTAGECOMPETITIVENESSCONSTANT PRICECONSTANT PRICESCONSUMERCONSUMER BEHAVIORCONSUMERSCONTRIBUTIONCONTRIBUTIONSCOUNTRY INEQUALITYDECOMPOSITION ANALYSISDECOMPOSITION RESULTSDEMOGRAPHICDEMOGRAPHIC CHANGEDEMOGRAPHIC CHANGESDEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTSDEVELOPED COUNTRIESDEVELOPED ECONOMIESDEVELOPING COUNTRIESDEVELOPING COUNTRYDEVELOPING ECONOMIESDEVELOPING REGIONSDEVELOPING WORLDDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSDEVELOPMENT GOALSDISTRIBUTION OF INCOMEDISTRIBUTIONAL CHANGESDISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTDISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTSDIVERGENT PATHSDOMESTIC SAVINGSEARNINGSECONOMIC ACTIVITYECONOMIC EXPANSIONECONOMIC GROWTHECONOMIC PERFORMANCEECONOMIC POLICYECONOMIC RESEARCHECONOMIC REVIEWECONOMIC TRENDSEDUCATIONAL SERVICESEMERGING ECONOMIESEMPIRICAL ANALYSISEMPIRICAL RESULTSEMPIRICAL STUDIESEXCHANGE RATEEXCHANGE RATESEXOGENOUS CHANGESEXPORTSFACTOR PRICESFERTILITY RATESFORECASTSFUTURE INCOMEGDPGENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELGINI COEFFICIENTGLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTSGLOBAL ECONOMYGLOBAL EXPORTSGLOBAL LEVELGLOBAL MARKETGLOBAL MARKETSGLOBAL OUTPUTGLOBALIZATIONGROWTH IN TRADEGROWTH MODELGROWTH MODELSGROWTH PERFORMANCEGROWTH PROCESSGROWTH PROSPECTSGROWTH RATEGROWTH RATESHIGH GROWTHHIGH INCOME COUNTRIESHIGH URBANIZATIONHISTORICAL PERSPECTIVEHOUSEHOLD INCOMESHOUSEHOLD SURVEYSHOUSEHOLD WELFAREHUMAN CAPITALINCOMEINCOME DATAINCOME DIFFERENCESINCOME DISPARITIESINCOME DISTRIBUTIONINCOME DISTRIBUTIONSINCOME GROUPINCOME GROUPSINCOME INEQUALITYINCOME LEVELINCOME RANGESINCOME STUDYINCOMESINCREASE IN INCOMEINCREASING INEQUALITYINDIVIDUAL COUNTRIESINEQUALITYINEQUALITY DECOMPOSITIONINEQUALITY WILLINTERNATIONAL CAPITALINTERNATIONAL TRADEINVESTMENT BEHAVIORLABOR FORCELABOR FORCE GROWTHLABOR MARKETLABOR PRODUCTIVITYLABOUR FORCELIFE EXPECTANCYLIVING STANDARDSLOCAL CURRENCYLONG-TERM RATEMACROECONOMIC ANALYSISMACROECONOMIC IMPLICATIONSMACROECONOMIC OUTCOMESMACROECONOMIC POLICYMARKET SHARESMARKETINGMEASUREMENT ERRORSMEDIAN VOTERMICRO DATAMIDDLE CLASSMIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIESMIDDLE INCOME COUNTRYMORTALITY RATESMULTILATERAL TRADENATIONAL INCOMENATURAL RESOURCESNEW JOBSOLDER PEOPLEPER CAPITA GROWTHPER CAPITA INCOMEPER CAPITA INCOMESPOLICY RESEARCHPOOR COUNTRIESPOPULATION GROWTHPOPULATION GROWTH RATESPOPULATION SUBGROUPSPOVERTY LINEPOVERTY REDUCTIONPOWER PARITYPRIVATE CONSUMPTIONPROBABILITIESPROBABILITYPRODUCTIVITY GROWTHPURCHASING POWERRAPID GROWTHRATES OF RETURNREAL EXCHANGE RATESREAL GDPREAL INCOMEREAL OUTPUTRELATIVE INCOMESRELATIVE POSITIONRELATIVE SHIFTRELATIVE WAGESRETIREMENTRETIREMENT AGERICH COUNTRIESSAVINGSSECTORAL COMPOSITIONSKILL LEVELSKILL PREMIUMSKILLED WAGESKILLED WAGESSKILLED WORKERSSOCIAL WELFARESTOCKSSTRUCTURAL CHANGESUB-SAHARAN AFRICATAXTECHNOLOGICAL CHANGESTOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITYTOTAL OUTPUTTRADE NEGOTIATIONSTRANSPARENCYTRINIDAD AND TOBAGOUNEQUAL DISTRIBUTIONUNSKILLED WORKERSURBANIZATIONWAGE DIFFERENTIALSWAGE GAPWAGE GAPSWEALTHWELFARE BENEFITSWORKING AGEWORKING AGE POPULATIONWORLD ECONOMYWORLD INCOME DISTRIBUTIONWORLD INEQUALITYWORLD MARKETSWORLD TRADEWORLD TRADE ORGANIZATIONWORTHYOUNGER COHORTSYOUNGER POPULATIONSWorld Bank10.1596/1813-9450-4392