Deininger, KlausAli, Daniel AyalewNataliia, KussulLemoine, GuidoShelestov, AndriiShumilo, Leonid2025-09-302025-09-302025-09-25https://hdl.handle.net/10986/43791This paper explores whether satellite imagery can be used to derive a measure to estimate conflict-induced damage to agricultural production and compare the results to those obtained using media-based conflict indicators, which are widely used in the literature. The paper combines area for summer and winter crops from annual crop maps for 2019–24 with measures of conflict-related damage to agricultural land based on optical and thermal satellite sensors. These data are used to estimate a difference-in-differences model for close to 10,000 Ukrainian village councils. The results point to large and persistent negative effects that spill over to conflict-unaffected village councils. The predicted impact is three times larger, with a distinctly different distribution across key domains (for example, territory controlled by Ukraine and the Russian Federation) using the preferred image-based indicator as compared to a media-based indicator. Satellite imagery thus allows defining conflict incidence in ways that may be relevant to agricultural production and that may have implications for future research.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOUKRAINECONFLICT/WARFOOD SECURITYAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIONAGRICULTURAL INPUT AND OUTPUT MARKETSWorking PaperWorld Bankhttps://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-11221