World Bank2014-01-172014-01-172013-01https://hdl.handle.net/10986/16591This documented case of climate change adaptation in Campeche Mexico grapples with a problem that is fundamental to addressing climate change risks in areas of high vulnerability, which is how to reach consensus and take decisions under an uncertain future. The state of Campeche in Mexico, is used as an example. With its long coastline, Campeche is highly vulnerable to current and projected future climate threats. Two different approaches to decision making under uncertainty have been explored. (i) A Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) approach was used to systematically analyze expected impacts, identify and agree on a menu of adaptation measures, and prioritize those measures, using a powerful combination of solid scientific knowledge and local expertise. (ii) The real options theory approach was applied to selected adaptation alternatives, and the benefits of waiting were compared with the costs of delaying decisions. In general, options that were modular and flexible were found to lead to more robust and prudent adaptation measures. The specific results obtained in this work are less important than the overall tenor and spirit of the messages from these exercises. Most importantly both exercises SEA and real options demonstrated that involved actors are ultimately consistent and cautious in their approach to climate risks. An important lesson to emerge from this work is that there is merit in adopting multiple approaches to tackle problems where uncertainty looms large. When the answers converge there is likely to be greater confidence in the outcomes. A second and perhaps more important lesson is the need to identify all costs including the options foregone by embarking on an irreversible course of action.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOADAPTIVE MANAGEMENTAERIAL PHOTOGRAPHSAGRICULTURAL PURPOSESAGRICULTUREAIRAIR QUALITYALTERNATIVE ENERGYAMPHIBIANSAQUACULTUREATMOSPHERIC MODELSATMOSPHERIC PHENOMENABAROMETRIC PRESSUREBASINSBAYBEACHBEACH EROSIONBEACH PROFILEBEACHESBENEFIT ANALYSISBIODIVERSITYBIODIVERSITY CONSERVATIONBIOLOGICAL MONITORINGBIOLOGYBIOSPHEREBRACKISH WATERCARBONCARBON CAPTURECARBON EMISSIONCARBON SINKCLASSIFICATIONCLIMATECLIMATE CHANGECLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATIONCLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTSCLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATIONCLIMATE CHANGE RISKSCLIMATE EVENTCLIMATE IMPACTSCLIMATE RISKCLIMATE RISKSCLIMATE THREATSCLIMATE TRENDSCLIMATIC CONDITIONSCOCOASTCOASTAL AREASCOASTAL CHANGECOASTAL DEVELOPMENTCOASTAL ECOSYSTEMCOASTAL EROSIONCOASTAL MANAGEMENTCOASTAL MONITORINGCOASTAL PROTECTIONCOASTAL STATESCOASTAL SYSTEMSCOASTAL WETLANDCOASTAL WETLANDSCOASTAL ZONECOASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENTCOASTAL ZONESCOASTLINECOASTLINESCOASTSCOLORSCONSERVATIONCONSTRUCTIONCONTINENTSCORALCORAL REEFSCORROSIONCREATED WETLANDSCROPSCURRENTSDAMSDECISION MAKINGDELTADIKESDRAINAGEDRAINAGE SYSTEMSDUNEDUNESECONOMIC ACTIVITYECONOMIC ANALYSISECONOMIC CONSEQUENCESECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTECONOMIC INSTRUMENTSECONOMIC VALUEECONOMICSECONOMISTSECOSYSTEMSEMISSION REDUCTIONENDANGERED SPECIESENERGY EFFICIENCYENVIRONMENTALENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENTENVIRONMENTAL POLICYENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTIONESTUARIESESTUARYEUTROPHICATIONEXTERNALITIESEXTREME EVENTSFIRE PREVENTIONFISHFISH POPULATIONFISHERIESFISHINGFLOODINGFLOODPLAINSFLOODSFOOD PRODUCTIONFORESTFOREST FIRESFORESTSFRESHWATERGASGAS PRODUCTIONGEOLOGYGLACIERSGLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGEGLOBAL TEMPERATUREGREENHOUSEGROUNDWATERGULFHABITAT DEGRADATIONHABITATSHOUSINGHUMAN ACTIVITIESHURRICANESHYDROCARBONHYDROCARBONSHYDROGRAPHYICE MASSESIMAGESINCUBATIONINDUSTRIAL EXPANSIONIPCCLAND AREALAND MANAGEMENTLAND RECLAMATIONLAND USELAND USE CHANGELAND USE PLANSLIQUID WASTELITTORALMANGROVEMANGROVE FORESTSMANGROVESMARINE TURTLESMEAN SEA LEVELMIGRATORY BIRDSMITIGATIONNATIONAL CLIMATENATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGENATIONAL SCALENATURAL RESOURCENATURAL RESOURCESNUTRIENTOCEAN CURRENTOCEAN CURRENTSOCEAN TEMPERATUREOCEANSOILOIL INDUSTRYOIL RESERVESOPTION VALUEORGANIC LOADSPEAK FLOWSPERMIT REGULATIONSPLANT SPECIESPLAYAPOLICY DECISIONSPOLICY INSTRUMENTSPOLICY MAKERSPOLLUTIONPOPULATION DYNAMICSPOPULATION GROWTHPPPRECIPITATIONPRECIPITATION INTENSITYPRECIPITATION PATTERNSPRESENT VALUEPRESERVATIONPRODUCTION COSTSPRODUCTION PATTERNSPUBLIC HEALTHQUALITY STANDARDSRAINRAINFALLRAINFALL EVENTSRAINFALL INTENSITYRAINWATERRESERVOIRSRESOURCE MANAGEMENTRESTORATIONRESTORATION PROGRAMSRETROFITTINGRIVERRIVER DELTASRUNOFFRURAL DEVELOPMENTSALINITYSALT MARSHESSALTWATER INTRUSIONSATELLITE DATASATELLITE IMAGESSCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGESEASEA LEVELSEA LEVEL RISESEA LEVEL RISESSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURESSEA TURTLESSEABEDSEAGRASSESSEASSEASHORESEDIMENTSEDIMENT TRANSPORTSEDIMENTATIONSEDIMENTSSHORESHORELINESPECIESSPECIES DIVERSITYSTORM SURGESTORM SURGESSTORMSSUBSTRATESSURFACE TEMPERATURESURFACE WATERSSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENTSUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENTSWAMPSTEMPERATURE RECORDSTIDETIDESTOPOGRAPHIC MAPSTOPOGRAPHYTROPICAL CYCLONESTROPICAL DRY FORESTTROPICAL STORMSTSUNAMISTURTLEUNDERGROUND WATERVEGETATIONWASTE MANAGEMENTWATER LEVELSWATER QUALITYWATER RESOURCESWATER USEWAVESWEATHER CONDITIONSWETLANDWETLAND ECOSYSTEMSWETLAND RESTORATIONWETLANDSWINDWINDSWorld Bank10.1596/16591