Ivanic, MarosIanchovichina, ElenaMartin, Will2012-03-192012-03-192009-10-01https://hdl.handle.net/10986/4267Continuing rapid growth of China and India can be expected to raise incomes in Russia, but also to put adjustment pressure on Russian firms. The impacts of the rapid growth of China and India on the Russian economy are explored by examining a baseline projection using a global general equilibrium model, and then assessing the implications of higher-than-expected growth in China and India. The authors find that a major source of benefits to Russia is likely to be terms-of-trade improvements associated with higher energy prices - a quite different channel of effect from that for many developing countries that benefit primarily through expanded opportunities to trade directly with these emerging giants. Taking into account the likely improvements in the quality and variety of exports from China and India, the gains to Russia increase substantially. The expansion of the energy sector and the contraction of manufacturing and services are a sign of a Dutch disease effect that will increase the importance of policies to encourage adaptation to the changing world environment.CC BY 3.0 IGOADVERSE IMPACTSAGRICULTURAL COMMODITIESAGRICULTURAL OUTPUTAGRICULTURAL PRICESAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIONAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTSAGRICULTUREAPPARELBENCHMARKBILATERAL TRADECHANGES IN TRADECOMMODITIESCOMMODITYCOMPETITIVENESSCONSTANT RETURNS TO SCALECONSUMER DEMANDCONSUMERSDEBTDEMAND FUNCTIONSDEVELOPED COUNTRIESDEVELOPING COUNTRIESDEVELOPING COUNTRYDEVELOPING ECONOMIESDOMESTIC DEMANDDOMESTIC MARKETDOMESTIC MARKETSDOMESTIC PRICESDUTY DRAWBACKSECONOMIC COOPERATIONECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTECONOMIC PERFORMANCEECONOMIC POLICYECONOMIC RESEARCHELASTICITYELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTIONEMERGING ECONOMIESEMERGING MARKETENERGY EXPORTENERGY EXPORTSENERGY PRICESENERGY RESOURCESEXPORT DIVERSIFICATIONEXPORT GROWTHEXPORT PATTERNSEXPORT PRICEEXPORT PRICESEXPORT PROCESSINGEXPORT VOLUMESEXPORTERSEXPORTSFACTOR ENDOWMENTSFACTOR PRICESFINAL GOODSFINANCIAL CRISISFINANCIAL INFLOWSFUTURE GROWTHGDPGENERAL EQUILIBRIUMGENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELGLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTSGLOBAL ECONOMICSGLOBAL ECONOMYGLOBAL TRADEGLOBAL TRADE ANALYSISGLOBALIZATIONGROWTH PROJECTIONSGROWTH RATEGROWTH RATESIMPERFECT SUBSTITUTESIMPORT PRICEIMPORT TARIFFSINCOMEINCOME EFFECTSINCOME ELASTICITIESINCOME LEVELSINCOMESINDUSTRIAL ECONOMIESINTERMEDIATE INPUTSINTERNATIONAL COMPETITIONINTERNATIONAL PRODUCTIONINTERNATIONAL TRADEINTERNATIONAL TRANSPORTMANUFACTURING INDUSTRIESMARKET COMPETITIONMARKET ENTRYMARKET PRICESMARKET SHARESMERCHANDISEMERCHANDISE EXPORTSMERCHANDISE IMPORTSMERCHANDISE TRADENATURAL RESOURCENATURAL RESOURCESNEW PRODUCTSNEWLY INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIESOPENNESSPRICE CHANGEPRICE CHANGESPRICE INCREASEPRICE LEVELPRODUCT DIFFERENTIATIONPRODUCT QUALITYPRODUCTIVITY GROWTHRAPID EXPANSIONRAPID GROWTHREGIONAL TRADESAVINGSSHARE OF WORLD EXPORTSSKILLED WORKERSSUPPLIERSUPPLIERSTAXATIONTAXATION POLICIESTERMS OF TRADETERMS-OF-TRADE GAINSTHIRD MARKETSTOTAL OUTPUTTRADE BALANCESTRADE FLOWSTRADE LIBERALIZATIONTRADE PATTERNSTRADE POLICIESTRADE POLICYTRADE POLICY ANALYSISTRADE STRUCTURETRADE ZONESTRANSPORT COSTSUNSKILLED LABORVALUE OF EXPORTSVALUE OF OUTPUTWELFARE GAINSWELFARE IMPACTSWORLD ECONOMYWORLD MARKETSWORLD PRICESWORLD TRADEWorld Bank10.1596/1813-9450-5075