Fofack, Hippolyte2012-03-192012-03-192010-09-01https://hdl.handle.net/10986/3911Sub-Saharan Africa's dismal development outcomes -- growth collapse and declining real income -- are often used to highlight its sharp development contrast with other regions of the developing world. Drawing on a large cross-section analysis, this paper shows that Africa's underlying dismal records can also be largely accounted for by the skewed distribution of growth in the post-independence era. In particular, structurally low investment rates in a context of high political risk and uncertainty undermined growth prospects in the region. However, counterfactual simulations based on a variation of neoclassical growth models and under the hypothetical equalization of political risk profile alternative result in large economic returns, reflected in the significantly higher level of aggregate output and income in the subset of conflict-affected countries. Income gets even higher when the hypothetical reduction of political risks alternative is accompanied by sustained increases in capital accumulation.CC BY 3.0 IGOABSOLUTE POVERTYACCOUNTINGADVANCED ECONOMIESADVERSE EFFECTSAGGREGATE OUTPUTAGRICULTURAL SECTORAGRICULTUREBALANCE OF PAYMENTSBALANCE OF PAYMENTS CRISESBANK POLICYBENCHMARKBENCHMARKSCAPITAL ACCUMULATIONCAPITAL FLIGHTCAPITAL FLOWSCAPITAL FORMATIONCAPITAL STOCKCIVIL WARCIVIL WARSCOMMODITIESCOMMODITYCOMMODITY EXPORTSCOMPARATIVE ADVANTAGECOMPARATIVE ANALYSISCONFLICTCONFLICT PREVENTIONCONFLICTSCONSTRAINTCOUNTERPARTSCOUNTRY DUMMIESCOUNTRY RISKCRISESCROSS-BORDER CAPITALCURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUSESDEATHSDEBTDEBT STOCKSDEPENDENT VARIABLEDERIVATIVESDEVELOPING COUNTRIESDEVELOPING WORLDDEVELOPMENT BANKDEVELOPMENT CENTREDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSDEVELOPMENT GOALSDEVELOPMENT INDICATORSDEVELOPMENT PATHDEVELOPMENT PATHSDISEQUILIBRIUMDISTRIBUTION OF INCOMEDIVERSIFICATIONDIVIDENDDIVIDENDSDOMESTIC SAVINGSDRUGSECONOMIC COOPERATIONECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTECONOMIC EFFICIENCYECONOMIC GROWTHECONOMIC LITERATUREECONOMIC OUTCOMESECONOMIC OUTLOOKECONOMIC PERFORMANCEECONOMIC POLICYECONOMIC RESEARCHECONOMIC THEORYECONOMICS RESEARCHELASTICITYEMERGING MARKETEMERGING MARKET ECONOMIESEMERGING MARKETSEMPIRICAL MODELEMPIRICAL MODELSEMPIRICAL RESULTSEMPIRICAL STUDIESESTIMATED COEFFICIENTESTIMATED COEFFICIENTSEXOGENOUS RATEEXPECTATION GAPEXPECTED RETURNSEXPENDITUREEXPORTSEXPOSUREEXPOSURESEXTERNAL DEBTEXTERNAL SHOCKSFINANCIAL CRISISFISCAL DEFICITSFOREIGN ASSETFOREIGN ASSET POSITIONSFRONTIERSGDPGDP PER CAPITAGLOBAL ECONOMIC LANDSCAPEGLOBAL ECONOMYGLOBAL LEVELGLOBAL TRADEGLOBALIZATIONGOVERNMENT SUPPORTGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTGROWTH MODELGROWTH MODELSGROWTH PERFORMANCEGROWTH PROCESSGROWTH PROSPECTSGROWTH RATEGROWTH RATESGROWTH THEORYHIGH GROWTHHUMAN DEVELOPMENTHUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORTHUMAN SECURITYIMFINCOME GROWTHINDEPENDENCESINFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENTINTERNATIONAL BANKINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTINVESTMENT FUNCTIONINVESTMENT RATESLABOR FORCELIFE EXPECTANCYLIVING STANDARDSLONG-RUN GROWTHLOW-INCOME COUNTRIESMACROECONOMIC INSTABILITYMACROECONOMIC STABILITYMARGINAL PRODUCTIVITYMASSIVE INVESTMENTSMEETINGMISMANAGEMENTMONETARY FUNDNATIONSNATURAL RESOURCENATURAL RESOURCESNEGATIVE EFFECTOIL CRISISOUTPUT GROWTHPEACEPER CAPITA INCOMEPOLICY RESEARCHPOLITICAL ECONOMYPOLITICAL INSTABILITYPOLITICAL RISKPOLITICAL RISKSPOLITICAL STABILITYPOLITICAL VIOLENCEPOOR GOVERNANCEPOSITIVE EXTERNALITIESPOVERTY RATESPOVERTY REDUCTIONPOVERTY TRAPSPRIMARY PRODUCTSPRIVATE CAPITALPRIVATE INVESTMENTPRIVATE INVESTMENTSPRODUCTION FUNCTIONPRODUCTION STRUCTURESPRODUCTIVITYPRODUCTIVITY GROWTHPROTECTIONISMPUBLIC INVESTMENTSPUBLIC POLICYRATE OF INVESTMENTSREAL INCOMERECONSTRUCTIONRESERVERESERVESREVOLUTIONRICH COUNTRIESRISK PROFILESIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONSKEWED DISTRIBUTIONSTATE INTERVENTIONTECHNOLOGICAL CHANGETERMS OF TRADETHIRD WORLDTOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITYTOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTHTRADE SHOCKSUNDPVICTIMSVIRTUOUS CYCLEVIRTUOUS CYCLESVOLATILITYWARWARSWORLD DEVELOPMENTWORLD ECONOMYWORLD TRADEWorld Bank10.1596/1813-9450-5428