Winsemius, Hessel C.Jongman, BrendenVeldkamp, Ted I.E.Hallegatte, StephaneBangalore, MookWard, Philip J.2015-12-182015-12-182015-11https://hdl.handle.net/10986/23437People living in poverty are particularly vulnerable to shocks, including those caused by natural disasters such as floods and droughts. Previous studies in local contexts have shown that poor people are also often overrepresented in hazard-prone areas. However, systematic evidence across countries demonstrating this finding is lacking. This paper analyzes at the country level whether poor people are disproportionally exposed to floods and droughts, and how this exposure may change in a future climate. To this end, household survey data with spatial identifiers from 52 countries are combined with present-day and future flood and drought hazard maps. The paper defines and calculates a “poverty exposure bias” and finds support that poor people are often overexposed to droughts and urban floods. For floods, no such signal is found for rural households, suggesting that different mechanisms—such as land scarcity—are more important drivers in urban areas. The poverty exposure bias does not change significantly under future climate scenarios, although the absolute number of people potentially exposed to floods or droughts can increase or decrease significantly, depending on the scenario and the region. The study finds some evidence of regional patterns: in particular, many countries in Africa exhibit a positive poverty exposure bias for floods and droughts. For these hot spots, implementing risk-sensitive land-use and development policies that protect poor people should be a priority.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOFLOODINGPOOR PEOPLERISKSHOUSEHOLD SIZEHOUSEHOLD SURVEYPOVERTY REDUCTIONPOVERTY LINEIMPACT ON POVERTYSTORMSPATIAL SCALEFLOOD PROTECTIONUNITED STATES AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTHYDROLOGIC CYCLETOPOGRAPHYPOVERTY LEVELSPOVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGIESHAZARDOUS CONDITIONSINCOMEDISASTER‐RISKDISCHARGEHYDROLOGYMONITORINGRESERVOIRSHOUSINGDEATHSURFACE WATERLAND SCARCITYNATIONAL POVERTYPOOR PEOPLEFLOOD PROTECTIONDISASTERWETLAND AREASDAMAGESINCOME GAPGLOBAL POVERTYQUALITYMEASURESDISASTER EVENTSHOUSEHOLD‐LEVEL DATAEXTREME WEATHERHURRICANESLAND PRICESSAFETY NETSPOVERTY REDUCTIONSTREAMRURAL POPULATIONSCLIMATIC CONDITIONSSAVINGSRURAL HOUSEHOLDSRESERVOIRAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITYNATURAL DISASTERDROUGHT CONDITIONSWATER AVAILABILITYSUBSISTENCE FARMERSFLOODSPLAINSFLOODEDNATIONAL POVERTYNATURAL HAZARDTRANSFERSNATURAL DISASTERSWAVESHOUSEHOLD INCOMEPOVERTY MAPSESTIMATES OF POVERTYDISASTERSHOUSEHOLD SURVEYSINDICATORSCLIMATE CHANGEPRECIPITATION PATTERNSCASE STUDIESFARMERSPRECIPITATIONRUNOFFCLASSIFICATIONCOASTAL AREASIMPACT ON POVERTYPOVERTY MAPSPOVERTY DATADROUGHTSNATURAL HAZARDSSTUDIESDISASTER REDUCTIONESTIMATES OF POVERTYDISASTER RISKCLIMATE CHANGEDROUGHTPOOR POLICYIMPACT OF DISASTERNATURAL HAZARDNATIONAL SCALERURAL LEVELPOVERTY LINEBANKHOUSEHOLD SURVEYSEXTREME EVENTSPOOR COUNTRIESFLOOD DAMAGECLIMATELAND SCARCITYEL NINOWETLAND ECOSYSTEMSHOUSEHOLD SIZEDAMAGENATURAL DISASTERRURALSAMPLE SIZEPONDSDIKESURBAN SETTINGSFLOODFOODHUMAN DEVELOPMENTPOVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGIESRURAL GAPSDATA SETSDEATH TOLLTARGETINGPOVERTY INDICATORSWATER AVAILABILITYRURAL HOUSEHOLDSRURAL AREASCLIMATIC CHANGELAKESLANDSUBSISTENCE FARMERSECOSYSTEMSFLOOD PLAINSANALYSISUNITED STATES AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTFLOOD DAMAGESCOASTHURRICANEOBSERVATIONSRIVERINERISKGROUNDWATERMITIGATIONPOOR HOUSEHOLDSARID REGIONSHAZARDOUS CONDITIONSSAMPLINGRURAL AREASPOVERTYWETLANDDROUGHT RISKSOUTHERN OSCILLATIONCLIMATE CONDITIONSESTIMATES OF POVERTYAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITYRISK MANAGEMENTPOORAGREEMENTEXTREME WEATHER EVENTSDISASTER RISKRISK MANAGEMENTNATIONAL‐SCALEWEATHER EVENTSSAFETYLAND PRICESWETLANDSPOOR COUNTRIESLAND‐USENATURAL HAZARDSRECONSTRUCTIONNATURAL DISASTERSHUMAN DEVELOPMENTINEQUALITYRIVERPOOR HOUSEHOLDSFLOW REGIMESHOUSEHOLD SURVEYWorking PaperWorld Bank10.1596/1813-9450-7480