Dinar, ArielBlankespoor, BrianDinar, ShlomiKurukulasuriya, Pradeep2012-03-192012-03-192010-05-01https://hdl.handle.net/10986/3828This paper assesses the impact of water supply variability on treaty cooperation between international bilateral river basin riparian states. Climate change is anticipated to change the variability of water supply, as well as its expected magnitude. Previous studies have focused mainly on water scarcity, measured in terms of mean precipitation or per capita water availability in the country, as a trigger for conflict or cooperation. The water variability measure used here captures both annual runoff variability and precipitation variability over periods of 30 and 100 years. The analysis used economic and international relations data to identify incentives for international cooperation in addressing water supply variability. The authors find that small-to-moderate increases in variability create an impetus for cooperation, although large increases in variability would reduce incentives for treaty cooperation. Stronger diplomatic and trade relations support cooperation, while uneven economic power inhibits cooperation. Various measures of democracy/governance suggest different impacts on cooperation across the basin riparians. The findings have policy implications in the context of preparedness for impacts of climate change on the water sector.CC BY 3.0 IGOAGRICULTUREALLOCATION AGREEMENTSANNUAL PRECIPITATIONANNUAL RUNOFFARID AREASAVAILABLE WATERBASIN AREABASIN LEVELCLIMATECLIMATE CHANGECLIMATE CHANGESCLIMATE IMPACTSCLIMATE STUDIESCLIMATE VARIABILITYCLIMATESCLIMATIC CONDITIONSCLIMATIC PHENOMENACOASTCONSTRUCTIONDRIER REGIONSDROUGHTENVIRONMENTAL LAWENVIRONMENTSEXTERNALITIESFLOOD CONTROLFLOW REGIMESFORESTFOREST COVERGROUNDWATERHYDROLOGIC CYCLEHYDROLOGICAL CYCLEHYDROLOGICAL MODELINTERNATIONAL RIVER BASINSINTERNATIONAL WATERSLAND COVERLAND USEMEAN ANNUAL RUNOFFMUNICIPAL WATERNATURAL DISASTERSNATURAL RESOURCESPOLLUTIONPROPERTY RIGHTSQUALITY OF WATERRAINFALLRESOURCE ALLOCATIONRIPARIAN COUNTRIESRIPARIAN STATESRIVERRIVER BASINRIVER BASIN MANAGEMENTRIVER BASINSRIVER FLOWRIVER SYSTEMRIVERSSCARCE WATERSCARCE WATER RESOURCESSEASNOWSOILSOIL MOISTURESOILSSURFACE WATERSURFACE WATER BODIESTREATIESVEGETATIONWATER ALLOCATIONWATER AVAILABILITYWATER FLOWSWATER LAWWATER MANAGEMENTWATER PROVIDERSWATER QUANTITYWATER REGULATIONWATER RESOURCEWATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENTWATER RESOURCESWATER SCARCITYWATER SECTORWATER SHARINGWATER SUPPLIESWATER SUPPLYWATER SYSTEMSWorld Bank10.1596/1813-9450-5307