Montalvo, Jose G.Reynal-Querol, Marta2012-06-042012-06-042007-04https://hdl.handle.net/10986/7009The authors analyze the relationship between ethnic polarization and the duration of civil wars. Several recent papers have argued that the uncertainty about the relative power of the contenders in a war will tend to increase its duration. In these models, uncertainty is directly related to the relative size of the contenders. The authors argue that the duration of civil wars increases the more polarized a society is. Uncertainty is not necessarily linked to the structure of the population but it could be traced back to the measurement of the size of the different groups in the society. Given a specific level of measurement error or uncertainty, more polarization implies lengthier wars. The empirical results show that ethnically polarized countries have to endure longer civil wars than ethnically less polarized societies.CC BY 3.0 IGOARMED CONFLICTARMED CONFLICTSARMYCIVIL WARCIVIL WARSCONFLICTSDEMOCRACYDEVELOPMENT POLICYDIASPORADISPUTESDURATION OF CONFLICTDURATION OF WARSECONOMIC GROWTHETHNIC CONFLICTETHNIC DIVERSITYETHNIC DIVISIONSETHNIC FRACTIONALIZATIONETHNIC FRAGMENTATIONETHNIC GROUPETHNIC GROUPSETHNIC HETEROGENEITYETHNIC MAJORITYETHNIC MINORITYETHNIC POLARIZATIONGENOCIDEHAZARD FUNCTIONHUMAN LIFEINCOMEINCOME INEQUALITYINTENSITY OF CONFLICTINTERNATIONAL CONFLICTJOURNAL OF CONFLICT RESOLUTIONMEASUREMENT OF POLARIZATIONNATURAL RESOURCESNUMBER OF ETHNIC GROUPSOPPORTUNITY COSTPEACEPEACE RESEARCHPOLICY RESEARCHPOLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPERPOLITICAL INSTABILITYPOLITICAL SYSTEMSPOPULATION INCREASEPOST-CONFLICTPROBABILITY OF WARPROGRESSREBEL GROUPREBEL VICTORYREBELLIONRELIGIOUS CONFLICTRELIGIOUS FRACTIONALIZATIONRISK FACTORRISK OF CONFLICTRULE OF LAWSOCIAL CONFLICTSSOCIAL POLARIZATIONSTATE CONFLICTSVIOLENCEWAR DURATIONWAR LITERATUREWARFAREWARTIMEWorld Bank10.1596/1813-9450-4192