World Bank2013-01-042013-01-042012-01https://hdl.handle.net/10986/12105The world economy has entered a dangerous period. Some of the financial turmoil in Europe has spread to developing and other high-income countries, which until earlier had been unaffected. This contagion has pushed up borrowing costs in many parts of the world, and pushed down stock markets, while capital flows to developing countries have fallen sharply. Europe appears to have entered recession. At the same time, growth in several major developing countries (Brazil, India and, to a lesser extent, Russia, South Africa and Turkey) is significantly slower than it was earlier in the recovery, mainly reflecting policy tightening initiated in late 2010 and early 2011 in order to combat rising inflationary pressures. As a result, and despite a strengthening of activity in the United States and Japan, global growth and world trade have slowed sharply.La economía mundial ha entrado en un período peligroso. Parte de la tormenta financiera que afecta a Europa se ha propagado a los países en desarrollo y a otras naciones de ingreso alto, los cuales anteriormente no habían sido perjudicados. Este contagio ha aumentado los costos de los préstamos en muchas partes del mundo y ha hecho bajar los mercados de valores mientras que los flujos de capital a los países en desarrollo han caído bruscamente. Al parecer Europa está empezando a ser impactada por una recesión. Al mismo tiempo, el crecimiento de varias de las economías emergentes (Brasil, India y, en menor medida, Rusia, Sudáfrica y Turquía) se ha ralentizado significativamente en comparación con el inicio del período de recuperación. Esto se debe principalmente a las políticas de ajuste que estos países comenzaron a aplicar a fines de 2010 y a comienzos de 2011 para mitigar el aumento de las presiones inflacionarias. Como resultado, a pesar del fortalecimiento de la actividad en Estados Unidos y Japón, el crecimiento y el comercio mundial se han desacelerado drásticamente.Quelles que soient les performances qui seront effectivement enregistrées par l’économie mondiale en 2012 et 2013, il y a un certain nombre de facteurs qui entreront assurément en jeu. En premier lieu, la croissance sera faible dans les pays à revenu élevé qui auront fort à faire à remettre d’aplomb leurs secteurs financiers et leurs équilibres budgétaires mal en point. Les pays en développement devront de plus en plus rechercher la croissance du côté du monde en développement, une évolution qui s’est déjà amorcée mais qui apportera certainement son propre lot de difficultés.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOaccess to bond marketsaccountingasset baseasset pricesbailoutbalance of paymentsbank activitybank assetsbank balance sheetsBank Debtbank lendingbank loansBanking Assetsbanking crisesbanking sectorbanking sectorsbanking systembanking systemsbasis pointbasis pointsbinding constraintbond auctionsBond Bankbond fundsbond indexesbond issuancesbond issuerbond salesbond spreadsBond yieldsbondsborrowing costsbusiness cyclecapital adequacycapital flowCapital flowscapital marketscapital outflowscapital requirementscapital stockCDSCentral Bankcentral bankscollateralcommercial banksCommoditiescommoditycommodity exportscommodity priceCommodity Pricesconsumer durablescontingency planningCopyright ClearanceCopyright Clearance Centercorporate bondcorporate bond issuancecountry debtcredit defaultcredit default swapcredit default swapscredit historiescredit squeezecredit squeezescreditorscross-border flowscurrency depreciationscurrency riskCurrent Account Deficitcurrent account deficitsdebt crisisdebt flowsdebt holdingsdebt issuesdebt levelsdebt ratiosDebt Repaymentdebtsdefaultsdeficitsdepositdepositorsdepositsdeveloping countriesDeveloping countrydeveloping­countrydomestic bankdomestic bankingdomestic banksdomestic bonddomestic bond marketsDomestic bondsdownside scenariodownside scenarioseconomic developmentsemerging marketemerging market equitiesEmerging Marketsemerging-marketenforcement mechanismsequity flowsequity fundsequity issuanceequity marketsequity valuesexchange rateExchange Ratesexpenditureexpendituresexport growthexportersexposureexternal debtfinancesfinancial crisesfinancial crisisFinancial flowsfinancial institutionsfinancial marketsFinancial Stabilityfinancial stressfinancial supportfinancial systemsfinancing requirementsfiscal deficitsfixed investmentfood pricesforeign banksforeign capitalforeign currencyforeign holdingsforeign investmentforeign investorGlobal Economic ProspectsGlobal Economyglobal financial marketsglobal marketsglobal tradegovernment bondsgovernment deficitgovernment deficitsgovernment financinggovernment revenuesgrowth ratesholdingholdingshost countriesIncomeincomesInflationinflation rateinflationary pressuresinsuranceinterest rateinterest ratesInternational Bankinternational bondInternational capitalInternational capital flowsinternational financial marketInternational Tradeinvestment vehiclesliquidityloanloan exposuresloan portfolioslocal currencylocal governmentlocal marketslocal stock marketslong term debtlong-term debtlong-term yieldsloss of confidencemark-to-marketmarket competitionmarket conditionsmarket confidencemarket equitymarket participantsmarket pricemarket pricesmarket valuemiddle-income countriesmonetary policyNet debtnon-performing loannonperforming loansoil priceoil pricesoutputpensionpension systempolicy responsepolitical uncertaintyportfoliopower parityprivate banksprivate capitalprivate capital inflowsPrivate creditorsprivate debtprudential regulationpurchasing powerremittanceremittancesreservesreturnrisk aversionsafety netsecondary bond marketsshort-term bondsshort-term debtshort-term financeShort-term yieldssocial safety netsolvencysovereign bondsovereign debtsovereign yieldsstock marketssustainable growthswaptaxtrade financetrade sectorstradingtranchetransition countriesvaluationswholesale fundingworld economyworld tradeWorld Bank10.1596/12100