Lee, RonaldMason, AndrewCotlear, Daniel2013-05-292013-05-292010-12https://hdl.handle.net/10986/13603The note describes the importance of population aging world-wide, clarifying its prevalence among middle- and low-income countries, which suggests that many developing countries are getting old before they are growing rich. The note then asks in what way population aging is an economic problem and what are the specific challenges facing developing countries in this process. The note argues against the common, time-bomb perception?, and clarifies how a simplistic extrapolation from the impact of aging on single programs such as public pensions gives a misleading impression about the more general macroeconomic consequences of population aging, where numerous elements contribute to a more nuanced result. The note briefly discusses various topics of importance in the population aging debate, including: intergenerational flows, social contracts, the risk management element of old-age policies, and the impact of aging on health care costs. The note seeks to share a number of counterintuitive or simply non-intuitive facts, including: (i) the large impact of declines in fertility on population aging (often more important than increases in longevity); (ii) the impact of increased life expectancy on working age populations (often larger than among old age populations); (iii) the positive impact of aging on capital intensity; (iv) the need to include education in assessments of intergenerational equity (these often simply look at who pays for old-age pensions and health services); and (v) the role of long-term care programs as insurance for risks faced by young adults.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOABORTIONADEQUATE HEALTH CAREADVERSE EFFECTSADVERSE SELECTIONAGE DISTRIBUTIONAGE GROUPSAGE POPULATIONSAGGREGATE DEMANDAGINGAGING POPULATIONBEHAVIOR CHANGEBIRTH RATESCAPITAL LABOR RATIOCHANGE IN POPULATIONCHILD CARECHILD MORTALITYCHILDBEARINGCONSEQUENCES OF POPULATIONCRISESDEATH RATESDEBTDECLINE IN BIRTH RATESDECLINES IN FERTILITYDECLINES IN MORTALITYDEMOGRAPHIC CHANGEDEMOGRAPHIC POLICIESDEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITIONDEPENDENCY BURDENDEPENDENCY RATIODEPENDENCY RATIOSDEVELOPING COUNTRIESDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSDISABILITYDISADVANTAGED GROUPSEARLY RETIREMENTECONOMIC GROWTHECONOMIC IMPLICATIONSECONOMIC RESOURCESECONOMICSEFFECTS OF POPULATIONELDERLYELDERLY POPULATIONEXTERNALITIESEXTERNALITYFAMILIESFAMILY POLICIESFEMALE LABORFEMALE LABOR FORCEFERTILITY DECLINEFERTILITY DECLINESFERTILITY LEVELSFERTILITY RATEFERTILITY RATESFERTILITY TRANSITIONFEWER CHILDRENFINANCIAL INSTITUTIONSFINANCIAL PLANNINGFISCAL POLICYGLOBAL HEALTHGLOBAL POPULATIONGOVERNMENT POLICIESGOVERNMENT PROGRAMSGROWTH RATES OF POPULATIONHEALTH CAREHEALTH CARE COSTSHEALTH CARE EXPENDITURESHEALTH CARE SPENDINGHEALTH COSTHEALTH COSTSHEALTH EXPENDITURESHEALTH INSURANCEHEALTH POLICYHEALTH SERVICESHEALTH SERVICES RESEARCHHIGH FERTILITYHOME CAREHUMAN CAPITALHUMAN DEVELOPMENTHUMANSHUSBANDSIMMIGRANTIMMIGRANTSIMMIGRATIONIMMIGRATION POLICYIMPACT OF POPULATIONIMPORTANCE OF POPULATIONINCOMEINCOME DISTRIBUTIONINCOME SECURITYINFANTINTEREST RATESINTERVENTIONINVESTMENT IN CHILDRENISSUES OF POPULATIONLABOR FORCELABOR FORCE PARTICIPATIONLABOR MARKETSLABOR PRODUCTIVITYLABOR SUPPLYLIFE CYCLELIFE EXPECTANCYLIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTHLONG-TERM CARELONGER LIFELOW FERTILITYLOW-INCOME COUNTRIESLOWER FERTILITYMARKET FAILURESMEDICAL CAREMORAL HAZARDMORTALITYMORTALITY DECLINEMORTALITY DECLINESNUMBER OF CHILDRENNUMBER OF WORKERSNURSINGNURSING HOME CARENUTRITIONOLD AGEOLD-AGEOLDER PEOPLEPENSION PLANSPENSIONSPHYSICAL DISABILITYPOLITICAL ECONOMYPOLITICAL SYSTEMSPOPULATION AGE STRUCTUREPOPULATION AND DEVELOPMENTPOPULATION COUNCILPOPULATION DIVISIONPOPULATION ESTIMATESPOPULATION GROWTHPOPULATION PROJECTIONSPRODUCTIVITYPRODUCTIVITY GROWTHPUBLIC EDUCATIONPUBLIC HEALTHPUBLIC HEALTH CAREPUBLIC HEALTH SPENDINGPUBLIC POLICYRECREATIONAL ACTIVITIESREMITTANCESREPLACEMENT LEVELRESPECTRETIREMENTRISING CONSUMPTIONSEXSIBLINGSSOCIAL CONTRACTSSOCIAL INSTITUTIONSSOCIAL NORMSSOCIAL PROGRAMSSOCIAL SECURITYSOCIAL WELFARETOTAL FERTILITY RATEUNITED NATIONS POPULATION DIVISIONUNPAID FAMILY WORKERSWAGESWOMANWORKFORCEWORKING-AGE POPULATIONWORLD POPULATIONYOUNG ADULTSYOUNG AGESYOUNG PEOPLEWorld Bank10.1596/13603