World Bank2013-03-142013-03-142010https://hdl.handle.net/10986/12746Over the last two decades Samoa has suffered major damage from two cyclones in 1990-91, minor damage from a third cyclone in 2004, and an earthquake tsunami in 2009. Changes in the scale and impact of these types of natural disasters are likely to be important consequences of climate change for the country because the increases in sea level and in average sea surface temperatures will increase theintensity and damage from major storms. Other potential impacts are linked to changes in the weather patterns associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The primary concern focuses on the impact on agriculture, especially in periods of lower precipitation following strong El Niño episodes.This study examines the consequences of an increase in average temperatures of up to 1°C by 2050 and up to 2.75°C by 2100 for the frequency and intensity of major cyclones that hit the islands. Estimates of the economic damage caused by storms in the past have been used to calibrate a damage function that yields an estimated increase in the expected value of economic damage as the peak wind speeds for storms with return periods of 10, 50, or 100 years rise over time. In this framework the key element of adaptation is to ensure that buildings and other assets are designed to standards that enable them to cope with the greater wind stresses and more intense precipitation associated with worse storms.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOADAPTATION ACTIONSADAPTATION ACTIVITIESADAPTATION BENEFITSADAPTATION COSTSADAPTATION MEASUREADAPTATION MEASURESADAPTATION NEEDSADAPTATION OPTIONSADAPTATION PLANSADAPTATION POLICIESADAPTATION PROGRAMADAPTATION PROJECTSADAPTATION STRATEGYADAPTATION TO CLIMATEADAPTATION YIELDSADAPTINGADVERSE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGEAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIONALLOCATIONALLOWANCEANNUAL COSTANNUAL PRECIPITATIONAPPROACH TO ADAPTATIONAVERAGE ANNUAL RAINFALLAVERAGE LIFE EXPECTANCYCALCULATIONCAPACITY DEVELOPMENTCAPITAL COSTSCLIMATECLIMATE CHANGECLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATIONCLIMATE CHANGE DISCUSSIONCLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATIONCLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONSCLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOSCLIMATE CONDITIONSCLIMATE DAMAGECLIMATE DATACLIMATE HAZARDSCLIMATE MITIGATIONCLIMATE MODELCLIMATE MONITORINGCLIMATE OUTCOMESCLIMATE RISKCLIMATE RISKSCLIMATE SCENARIOCLIMATE SCENARIOSCLIMATE TRENDSCLIMATE VARIABLESCLIMATIC HAZARDSCOCOASTAL FLOODCOASTAL ZONE ADAPTATIONCOLORSCONSEQUENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGECONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGECONSERVATION AREASCOST OF ADAPTATIONCOST OF CLIMATE CHANGECOST-BENEFITCOST-BENEFIT ANALYSISCOSTS OF ADAPTATIONCOSTS OF ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGECOSTS OF CLIMATE CHANGECROP DIVERSIFICATIONCYCLONE INTENSITYCYCLONESDAMAGE FROM STORMSDAMAGESDEATH TOLLDEFORESTATIONDISASTERDISASTER MANAGEMENTDISASTER PLANNINGDISASTER RISKDISASTER RISK REDUCTIONDISCOUNT RATEDROUGHTDROUGHT PERIODSDROUGHTSDRY PERIODSDRY SCENARIODRY SEASONDRY SEASONSDRY SPELLSEARLY WARNINGEARLY WARNING SYSTEMEARLY WARNING SYSTEMSEARTHQUAKEEARTHQUAKESECONOMIC ACTIVITYECONOMIC ANALYSISECONOMIC COSTSECONOMIC GROWTHECONOMIC IMPACTECONOMIC IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGEECONOMICS OF ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGEECOSYSTEMEFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGEEFFECTIVENESS OF ADAPTATIONEL NINOELECTRICITYEMISSIONSEMISSIONS SCENARIOSENSOEXTREME EVENTSEXTREME WEATHEREXTREME WEATHER EVENTSFARMERSFEASIBILITYFIRE PREVENTIONFLOODFLOOD DAMAGEFLOOD HAZARDFLOOD PROTECTIONFLOODEDFLOODINGFLOODSFOOD SECURITYFOREIGN AFFAIRSFORESTFOREST FIREFORESTRYFORESTSFUTURE CLIMATE SCENARIOSGCMGENERAL CIRCULATION MODELGLOBAL ENVIRONMENT FACILITYGLOBAL HYDROLOGYGLOBAL TEMPERATURESGREENHOUSEGREENHOUSE GASGREENHOUSE GAS REDUCTIONSHEAVY RAINSHURRICANEHURRICANE DAMAGEHURRICANESHYDROLOGYIMPACT OF CLIMATEIMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGEIMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTUREIMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGEIMPLEMENTATION OF ADAPTATIONIMPLEMENTATION OF ADAPTATION OPTIONSIMPORTSINCOMEINSURANCEINSURANCE COSTSINSURANCE POLICYINTENSITY OF CYCLONESINTENSITY OF STORMSLAND USELOSS FUNCTIONMAXIMUM TEMPERATUREMEAN TEMPERATUREMETEOROLOGYMINIMUM TEMPERATUREMINIMUM TEMPERATURESNATIONAL ADAPTATIONNATIONAL CLIMATENATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGENATURAL DISASTERSNATURAL HAZARDSNET COSTOCEAN TEMPERATURESPRECIPITATIONPRESENT VALUEPROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONPROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONSPUBLIC SPENDINGRAINRAINFALLRAINY SEASONRENEWABLE ENERGYRESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGESEA LEVEL RISESEA SURFACE TEMPERATURESEA SURFACE TEMPERATURESSEA WALLSSEASONSOUTHERN OSCILLATIONSTORMSTORM DAMAGESTORM SURGESTORM SURGESSTORMSSURFACE TEMPERATURESURFACE TEMPERATURESSUSTAINABLE FORESTSUSTAINABLE FOREST MANAGEMENTTEMPERATURETEMPERATURESTOTAL CONSUMPTIONTOTAL COSTTOTAL COSTSTROPICAL CYCLONESTROPICAL STORMSTSUNAMITSUNAMISVULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGEVULNERABILITY TO NATURAL DISASTERSWATER TREATMENTWEATHER CONDITIONSWEATHER PATTERNSWINDWIND DAMAGEWIND DIRECTIONWIND SPEEDWIND SPEEDSWIND VELOCITYWMOWORST-CASEWorld Bank10.1596/12746