Holzmann, Robert2014-10-072014-10-072005-12https://hdl.handle.net/10986/20385The paper investigates the demographic alternatives for dealing with the projected population aging and low or negative growth of the population and labor force in the North. Without further immigration, the total labor force in Europe and Russia, the high-income countries of East Asia and the Pacific, China, and, to a lesser extent, North America is projected to be reduced by 29 million by 2025 and by 244 million by 2050. In contrast, the labor force in the South is projected to add some 1.55 billion, predominantly in South and Central Asia and in Sub-Saharan Africa. The demographic policy scenarios to deal with the projected shrinking of the labor forth in the North include moving the total fertility rate back to replacement levels, increasing labor force participation of the existing population through a variety of measures, and filling the demographic gaps through enhanced immigration. The estimations indicate that each of these policy scenarios may partially or even fully compensate for the projected labor force gap by 2050. But a review of the policy measures to make these demographic scenarios happen also suggests that governments may not be able to initiate or accommodate the required change.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOAGE GROUPAGE GROUPSANNUAL GROWTHBABIESBENEFIT LEVELBENEFIT LEVELSBENEFITS OF MIGRATIONBIRTH RATESBRAIN DRAINCAPITAL MARKETSCAPITAL STOCKCHANGE IN POPULATIONCHANGE IN POPULATION SIZECHILD REARINGCHILD-BEARINGCHILDREN PER FAMILYCHILDREN PER WOMANCITIZENSCONTRIBUTION PAYMENTSCONTRIBUTION RATECONTRIBUTION SYSTEMCOUNTRY OF ORIGINCURRENT LABOR FORCEDEFINED BENEFITSDEMOGRAPHIC CHANGESDEMOGRAPHIC GROWTHDEMOGRAPHIC POLICYDEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONSDEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITIONDEMOGRAPHIC TRENDSDEPENDENCY RATIODEPENDENCY RATIOSDEVELOPING COUNTRIESDIFFERENTIATED IMPACTDISABILITYECONOMIC ANALYSISECONOMIC ENVIRONMENTECONOMIC GROWTHECONOMIC IMPLICATIONSEDUCATED WOMENEFFECT ON POPULATION GROWTHELDERLYELDERLY POPULATIONEMPLOYEEEMPLOYMENT POLICIESENTREPRENEURIAL SPIRITEXISTING POPULATIONFACTOR MARKETSFACTORS OF PRODUCTIONFAMILY MEMBERSFEMALE LABORFEMALE LABOR FORCEFERTILITYFERTILITY RATEFERTILITY RATESFIRST BIRTHFIRST CHILDGENDER GAPGENDER GAPSGENERAL EQUILIBRIUMGLOBAL COMMISSIONGLOBAL COMMISSION ON INTERNATIONAL MIGRATIONGROWTH RATEGROWTH RATESHEALTH CAREHEALTH INSURANCEHOST COUNTRIESHUMAN CAPITALHUMAN DEVELOPMENTIMMIGRANTSIMMIGRATIONIMMIGRATION POLICYIMPACT OF MIGRATIONIMPACT OF POPULATIONIMPACT ON FERTILITYINCOMEINCOME SUPPORTINCREASE IN LABORINCREASED FERTILITY RATESINFORMAL SECTORINTEREST RATESINTERNATIONAL MIGRANTSINTERNATIONAL MIGRATIONINTERNATIONAL POLICYISSUES OF POPULATIONJOB CREATIONJOB LOSSESJOBSKNOWLEDGE ECONOMYLABOR DEMANDLABOR ECONOMICSLABOR FORCELABOR FORCE GROWTHLABOR FORCE PARTICIPATIONLABOR MARKETLABOR MARKET POLICIESLABOR MARKET PROBLEMSLABOR MARKETSLABOR MIGRANTSLABOR MIGRATIONLABOURLABOUR FORCELABOUR MARKETSLARGE-SCALE IMMIGRATIONLIFE EXPECTANCYLIFE-LONG LEARNINGLIFELONG LEARNINGLONG-RUN EFFECTSLONGER LIFELOW FERTILITYLOWER FERTILITYMACROECONOMIC CONSEQUENCESMIGRANTMIGRANT WORKERSMIGRANT-SENDING COUNTRIESMIGRATION DATAMIGRATION FLOWSMIGRATION POLICYMORAL HAZARDMORTALITYMORTALITY RATENATIONAL INTERESTNATIONAL SECURITYNATIONALSNATIVE WORKERSNOTIONAL ACCOUNTSNUMBER OF BIRTHSNUMBER OF CHILDRENNUMBER OF CHILDREN PER WOMANNUMBER OF MIGRANTSNUMBER OF PERSONSNUMBER OF WOMENNUMBER OF WOMEN OF CHILD-BEARING AGEOLD-AGEOPPORTUNITY COSTSPARENTAL LEAVEPARTICIPATION OF WOMENPAY-AS-YOU-GO PENSION SYSTEMPAY-AS-YOU-GO PENSION SYSTEMSPAY-AS-YOU-GO SYSTEMPENSIONPENSION BENEFITPENSION BENEFITSPENSION INCOMEPENSION PAYMENTSPENSION REFORMPENSION SCHEMEPENSION SCHEMESPENSION SYSTEMPENSION SYSTEMSPENSIONSPERSONAL HEALTHPOLICY AFFECTPOLICY DECISIONSPOLICY IMPLICATIONSPOLICY RESEARCHPOLITICAL ECONOMYPOPULATION AND DEVELOPMENTPOPULATION DYNAMICSPOPULATION EFFECTPOPULATION GROWTHPOPULATION POLICYPOPULATION RESEARCHPOPULATION SHIFTSPOPULATION STRUCTUREPRESENT VALUEPRODUCTIVITYPRODUCTIVITY GROWTHPROPERTY RIGHTSPUBLIC PENSIONPUBLIC PENSIONSPURCHASING POWERPURCHASING POWER PARITYRATE OF RETURNREAL WAGESREFUGEESREMITTANCESREPLACEMENT LEVELREPLACEMENT RATERETIREESRETIREMENTRETIREMENT AGERETIREMENT INCOMERETIREMENT PERIODRETURN MIGRATIONSKILL LEVELSMALL COUNTRIESSOCIAL AFFAIRSSOCIAL BENEFITSSOCIAL POLICYSOCIAL PROGRAMSSOCIAL PROTECTIONSOCIAL SECURITYSTATE UNIVERSITYSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENTTERRORISTTOTAL LABOR FORCETRADE UNIONSTRANSFER OF KNOWLEDGEUNEMPLOYMENTUNITED NATIONS POPULATION DIVISIONWORK FORCEWORKERWORKING POPULATIONWORLD POPULATIONYOUNG AGEYOUNG AGESYOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT10.1596/20385