Devarajan, ShantaMottaghi, Lili2015-01-262015-01-262015-01978-1-4648-0538-7https://hdl.handle.net/10986/21349This issue of the MENA Quarterly Economic Brief focuses on the implications of low oil prices for eight developing countries, or the MENA-8 (oil importers: Egypt, Tunisia, Lebanon and Jordan and oil exporters: Iran, Iraq, Yemen and Libya) and the economies of the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council), who play a major role in providing funds in the form of aid, investment, tourism revenues and remittances to the rest of the countries of the region. We make the following assumptions about the future price of oil: (i) The price will average $65 Brent p/b in 2015; (ii) a higher price $78 Brent p/b will be used for comparison analysis. As with other economic variables, there is uncertainty associated with the future price of oil, which adds to the error involved in projections. The data for 2015 2017 in the figures and tables are projections. These projections are based on statistical information available through early January 2015.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOACCOUNTINGASSETSAVAILABILITYAVERAGE OIL PRICEBALANCEBALANCE OF PAYMENTSBALANCE OF PAYMENTS CRISISBARRELBARRELS OF OILBARRELS PER DAYBILLBILLSBLACK MARKETBLACK MARKET EXCHANGE RATEBORROWING REQUIREMENTBUDGET DEFICITBUDGET DEFICITSBUFFERSCAPACITY UTILIZATIONCAPITAL INVESTMENTCAPITAL MARKETSCASH TRANSFERCASH TRANSFERSCENTRAL BANKCORRELATION COEFFICIENTCOST OF ENERGYCOUNTRY DUMMIESCREDIT AGENCIESCRUDE OILCRUDE OIL EXPORTSCRUDE OIL IMPORTSCRUDE OIL PRICESCRUDE OIL PRODUCTIONCURRENCYCURRENT ACCOUNTCURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCECURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCESCURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITDEBT LEVELSDEBT SERVICEDEPENDENT VARIABLEDEPRECIATIONDEVELOPING COUNTRIESDIESELDIRECTION OF TRADEDISBURSEMENTDISBURSEMENTSDISTRIBUTION OF OILDOMESTIC BANKINGDOMESTIC BANKING SYSTEMDOMESTIC DEBTDOMESTIC INFLATIONDOMESTIC OILDOMESTIC OIL PRODUCTIONDOWNWARD PRESSUREDRILLINGDRILLING ACTIVITYDRILLING RIGSECONOMIC GROWTHELECTRIC POWERELECTRICITYELECTRICITY TARIFFSENERGY BALANCEENERGY MIXENERGY PRICESENERGY REVIEWEQUIPMENTEUROBONDEXCHANGE RATEEXCHANGE RESTRICTIONSEXPENDITUREEXPORT EARNINGSEXPORT MARKETSEXPORT REVENUESEXPOSUREEXTERNAL BALANCESEXTERNAL DEFICITSEXTERNAL FINANCINGEXTERNAL FUNDINGFINANCESFISCAL BALANCEFISCAL BALANCESFISCAL DEFICITFISCAL DEFICITSFISCAL POLICYFISCAL POSITIONFIXED EFFECTSFOOD PRICEFOOD PRICESFOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTFOREIGN EXCHANGEFOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETFOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVESFOREIGN RESERVESFUELFUEL OILFUEL PRICEFUEL PRICESFUELSFUTURESFUTURES MARKETFUTURES MARKETSGASGAS GRIDGAS IMPORTSGASOLINEGENERATING CAPACITYGLOBAL DEMANDGLOBAL ECONOMYGOLDGOVERNMENT BUDGETGOVERNMENT REVENUESGOVERNMENT SAVINGGOVERNMENT SPENDINGGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTGROWTH RATEGROWTH RATESHOLDINGIMPORTINFLATIONINFLATION FORECASTINFLATION RATEINFLATIONARY PRESSURESINTERNATIONAL BANKINTERNATIONAL CAPITALINTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETINTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL STATISTICSINTERNATIONAL MARKETINTERNATIONAL OIL PRICESINTERNATIONAL PRICESINTERNATIONAL RESERVESISSUANCELABOR FORCELEVEL OF CONFIDENCELOANLOW OIL PRICESMACROECONOMIC STABILIZATIONMARKET ACCESSMARKET PRICESMARKET SHAREMILLION BARRELSMILLION BARRELS PER DAYMONETARY AUTHORITIESMONETARY POLICYMULTIPLE CURRENCYMULTIPLE CURRENCY PRACTICENATURAL GASNET OILNET OIL EXPORTSNOMINAL EXCHANGE RATEOILOIL ACCOUNTSOIL AND GASOIL AND GAS SECTOROIL COMPANIESOIL CONSUMEROIL EXPORTOIL EXPORT REVENUESOIL EXPORTERSOIL EXPORTING COUNTRIESOIL EXPORTSOIL FIELDSOIL IMPORTEROIL IMPORTERSOIL IMPORTSOIL INDUSTRYOIL MARKETOIL PIPELINESOIL PRICEOIL PRICESOIL PRODUCERSOIL PRODUCINGOIL PRODUCING COUNTRIESOIL PRODUCTIONOIL REVENUEOIL REVENUESOIL-PRODUCING COUNTRIESOPECPARALLEL MARKETPEAK DEMANDPEGPENSIONPENSION FUNDPERMANENT SHOCKPETROLEUMPETROLEUM IMPORTSPETROLEUM PRODUCTPETROLEUM PRODUCT PRICESPOLITICAL INSTABILITYPORTFOLIOPORTFOLIO INFLOWSPOWERPOWER COMPANYPRICE HIKESPRICE INCREASEPRICE OF OILPRIVATE CONSUMPTIONPRIVATE SECTORPRODUCTION COSTSPUBLIC DEBTPUBLIC INVESTMENTPUBLIC SPENDINGRECESSIONREMITTANCEREMITTANCESRESERVERETURNSHALE OILSLOW GROWTHSLOWDOWNSPOT PRICESPOT PRICESSTOCK MARKETSTOCK MARKET INDEXSTOCKSSUPPLY SHOCKSUPPLY SIDESUPPLY-SIDESURPLUSESTAXTOTAL DEBTTOTAL EXPORTTOTAL EXPORTSTOTAL IMPORTSTRADE BALANCETRADE BALANCESTRADE DEFICITTRADE STATISTICSTRADE SURPLUSTRADINGTRADING PARTNERSTRANCHESTRANSPORTATION COSTTRANSPORTATION COSTSUNCERTAINTYUNEMPLOYMENT RATEUNEMPLOYMENT RATESWORLD PRICES10.1596/978-1-4648-0538-7