Bown, Chad P.Crowley, Meredith A.2013-01-282013-01-282013-01https://hdl.handle.net/10986/12178This paper estimates the impact of aggregate fluctuations on the time-varying trade policies of 13 major emerging economies over 1989-2010. By 2010, these World Trade Organization member countries collectively accounted for 21 percent of world merchandise imports and 22 percent of world gross domestic product. The paper examines determinants of carefully constructed, bilateral measures of new import restrictions on products arising through the temporary trade barrier (TTB) policies of antidumping, safeguards, and countervailing duties. The approach explicitly addresses changes to the institutional environment facing these emerging economies as they joined the WTO and adopted disciplines to restrain their application of other trade policies, such as applied import tariffs. The paper presents evidence of a counter-cyclical relationship between macroeconomic shocks and new TTB import restrictions in addition to an important role for fluctuations in bilateral real exchange rates. Furthermore, for the subset of major Group of 20 emerging economies, the trade policy responsiveness coinciding with WTO establishment in 1995 suggests a significant change relative to the pre-WTO period; i.e., new import restrictions became more counter-cyclical over time. Finally, the paper documents evidence on changes to some of these empirical relationships coinciding with the Great Recession.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOANTIDUMPINGANTIDUMPING CASESANTIDUMPING DUTIESANTIDUMPING FILINGSANTIDUMPING POLICYAPPLIED TARIFFBALANCE OF PAYMENTSBALANCE OF PAYMENTS DIFFICULTIESBANK POLICYBILATERAL EXCHANGE RATEBILATERAL IMPORTSBILATERAL TRADEBUSINESS CYCLEBUSINESS CYCLESCHANGES IN TRADECOMPETITIVENESSCONSUMERSCONTROL VARIABLECOUNTRY FIXED EFFECTSCOUNTRY TARIFFCURRENCYCURRENCY APPRECIATIONCURRENCY APPRECIATIONSCURRENCY DEPRECIATIONCURRENCY DEPRECIATIONSCURRENCY PEGCURRENCY REGIMECURRENCY REGIMESDEPENDENT VARIABLEDEPENDENT VARIABLESDEPRECIATIONSDEPRESSIONDEVELOPING COUNTRIESDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSDEVELOPMENT POLICYDOMESTIC CURRENCYDOMESTIC ECONOMYDOMESTIC UNEMPLOYMENTDUMPINGECONOMETRIC ANALYSISECONOMETRIC MODELSECONOMIC DOWNTURNSECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONSECONOMIC GROWTHECONOMIC RESEARCHEMERGING ECONOMIESEMERGING ECONOMYEMERGING MARKETSEQUILIBRIUMEXCHANGE RATEEXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONSEXCHANGE RATE INCREASESEXCHANGE RATE MANAGEMENTEXCHANGE RATE REGIMEEXCHANGE RATE REGIMESEXPLANATORY VARIABLEEXPLANATORY VARIABLESEXPORTEREXPORTSFEDERAL RESERVEFEDERAL RESERVE BANKFINANCIAL CRISISFIXED EFFECTSFIXED EXCHANGE RATESFLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATEFLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATE REGIMEFLOATING CURRENCIESFLOATING CURRENCYFLOATING EXCHANGE RATEFLOATING EXCHANGE RATE REGIMEFLOATING EXCHANGE RATE REGIMESFLOATING REGIMEFLOATING REGIMESFOREIGN FIRMSFUTURE GROWTHFUTURE RESEARCHGDPGLOBAL ECONOMYGLOBAL TRADEGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTGROWTH RATEHIGH-INCOME COUNTRIESIMPACT OF SHOCKSIMPERFECT COMPETITIONIMPORTIMPORT BARRIERSIMPORT DUTYIMPORT GROWTHIMPORT PRODUCTSIMPORT PROTECTIONIMPORT RESTRICTIONIMPORT RESTRICTIONSIMPORT TARIFFIMPORT TARIFFSIMPORTSINCOMEINDICATOR VARIABLEINDICATOR VARIABLESINSTITUTIONAL ENVIRONMENTINSTRUMENTINTERNATIONAL BANKINTERNATIONAL CURRENCYINTERNATIONAL ECONOMICSINTERNATIONAL ECONOMYINTERNATIONAL TRADELIBERALIZATIONMACROECONOMIC DATAMACROECONOMIC FACTORSMACROECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONSMACROECONOMIC SHOCKMACROECONOMIC SHOCKSMACROECONOMIC VARIABLESMARKET POWERMONETARY POLICYNEGATIVE SHOCKNEW PRODUCTOIL IMPORTSOPTIMAL TARIFFSOUTSTANDING STOCKPATENTSPEGPOLICY RESPONSESPOLITICAL ECONOMYPROTECTIONISMREAL APPRECIATIONREAL APPRECIATIONSREAL DEPRECIATIONREAL EXCHANGE RATEREAL EXCHANGE RATE APPRECIATIONREAL EXCHANGE RATE APPRECIATIONSREAL EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTSREAL EXCHANGE RATESREAL GDPREAL IMPORTRECESSIONRECESSIONSREGIME SWITCHRESPONSE TO SHOCKSRETURNROBUSTNESS CHECKSSLOWDOWNSLOWDOWNSSTANDARD DEVIATIONSTANDARD DEVIATIONSTARIFF DATATARIFF INCREASETARIFF INCREASESTARIFF LEVELSTARIFF POLICIESTARIFF POLICYTARIFF RATETARIFF RATESTARIFF REDUCTIONSTRADE AGREEMENTTRADE AGREEMENTSTRADE BARRIERTRADE BARRIERSTRADE FLOWSTRADE LIBERALIZATIONTRADE POLICIESTRADE POLICYTRADE POLICY INSTRUMENTSTRADE PROTECTIONTRADE RESTRICTIONSTRADE VOLUMESTRADINGTRADING PARTNERTRADING PARTNERSTRADING SYSTEMTRANSITORY SHOCKSUNEMPLOYMENTUNEMPLOYMENT RATEUNILATERAL LIBERALIZATIONWELFARE GAINSWORLD ECONOMYWORLD TRADEWORLD TRADE ORGANIZATIONWTOWorld Bank10.1596/1813-9450-6315