Maliszewska, MarylaDevarajan, ShantayananOsorio-Rodarte, IsraelGo, Delfin S.Timmer, Hans2013-09-262013-09-262013-06https://hdl.handle.net/10986/15876After an impressive acceleration in growth and poverty reduction since the mid-1990s, many African countries continue to register robust growth in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Will this growth persist, given the tepid recovery in developed countries, numerous weather shocks, and civil conflicts in Africa? This paper "stress tests" African economies. The findings indicate that Africa's long-term growth is fairly impervious to a prolonged recession in high-income countries. Growth is, however, much more sensitive to a disruption of capital flows to the region, and to internal shocks, such as civil conflict and drought, even if the latter follow historical patterns. The broad policy implication is that with proper domestic production conditions African countries can sustain robust long-term growth. Because of the economic dominance of the agriculture sector and the share of food in household budgets, countries will need to increase the resilience of agriculture and protect it from unfavorable climate change impacts, such as drought. As in the past, civil conflicts and violence will pose by far the greatest threat to Africa's performance.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOADVERSE EFFECTSADVERSE IMPACTAGRICULTURAL GROWTHAGRICULTURAL OUTPUTAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIONAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITYAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTSAGRICULTUREALTERNATIVE SCENARIOSANNUAL GROWTHANNUAL GROWTH RATEAVERAGE GROWTHAVERAGE INCOMEAVERAGE INCOMESBASE YEARBENCHMARKCAPITAL ACCUMULATIONCAPITAL FLIGHTCAPITAL FLOWSCAPITAL INCREASESCAPITAL INFLOWSCAPITAL STOCKCAPITAL SURPLUSESCIVIL WARCLIMATECLIMATE CHANGECLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTSCOMMODITIESCOMMODITYCOMMODITY PRICESCOMPARATIVE ADVANTAGECONFLICTCONSUMERSCOUNTERFACTUALDAMAGESDEBTDEBT RELIEFDEMOGRAPHICDEMOGRAPHIC CHANGESDENSITY FUNCTIONDEVELOPING COUNTRIESDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSDEVELOPMENT GOALSDEVELOPMENT POLICYDEVELOPMENT REPORTDISTRIBUTION OF INCOMEDIVERSIFICATIONDOMESTIC PRODUCTIONDROUGHTECONOMIC ACTIVITIESECONOMIC ACTIVITYECONOMIC ANALYSISECONOMIC CONSEQUENCESECONOMIC COSTSECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTECONOMIC GROWTHECONOMIC IMPACTECONOMIC PERFORMANCEECONOMIC POLICIESECONOMIC PROJECTIONSELASTICITYEMERGING ECONOMIESEMERGING MARKETEMERGING MARKET ECONOMIESEQUILIBRIUMEXCHANGE RATEEXCHANGE RATESEXPORTSEXTERNAL FINANCINGEXTERNAL SHOCKSFACTOR PRICESFAMINEFINANCIAL CAPITALFINANCIAL CRISISFINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTFINANCIAL FLOWFINANCIAL FLOWSFINANCIAL INFLOWSFOOD EXPENDITURESFOOD IMPORTSFOOD POLICYFOOD PRICEFOOD PRICESFOOD PRODUCTFOOD PRODUCTIONFOOD PRODUCTSGDPGDP PER CAPITAGLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTSGLOBAL ECONOMYGLOBAL LEVELGLOBALIZATIONGROWTH ASSUMPTIONSGROWTH MODELGROWTH MODELSGROWTH RATEGROWTH RATESHIGH INCOME COUNTRIESHOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTIONHOUSEHOLD SURVEYHUMAN CAPITALHUMAN DEVELOPMENTIMPACT ANALYSISIMPACT ON POVERTYINCOMEINCOME DISTRIBUTIONINCOME ELASTICITYINCOME LEVELSINCOMESINSTITUTIONAL CAPACITYINTERNATIONAL CAPITALINTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWSLABOR FORCELDCSLESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIESLONG RUNLONG-TERM GROWTHLOW-INCOME COUNTRIESLOWER DEMANDLOWER PRICESMACROECONOMIC STABILITYMARGINAL COSTMARGINAL RETURNSMICRO MODELMIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIESNATIONAL ECONOMIESNATURAL DISASTERSNATURAL RESOURCESNEGATIVE IMPACTNET CAPITALOIL EXPORTERSOIL PRICEOIL PRICESOIL PRODUCTIONOIL SECTORPER CAPITA GROWTHPER CAPITA INCOMEPOLICY RESEARCHPOORPOPULOUS COUNTRIESPOVERTY IMPACTPOVERTY LINEPOVERTY LINESPOVERTY RATEPOVERTY REDUCTIONPRICE MOVEMENTSPRICE OF OILPRIVATE INVESTMENTPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCEPRODUCTIVITY GROWTHPUBLIC EXPENDITURESREAL EXCHANGE RATESREAL GDPRECESSIONREDUCING POVERTYREGIONAL TRADERELATIVE PRICESRICH COUNTRIESRURALRURAL AREASRURAL INCOMERURAL POVERTYSAVINGSSCENARIOSSIGNIFICANT IMPACTSTATE INTERVENTIONSSUBSISTENCE AGRICULTURESUPPLY SHOCKTECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESSTOTAL CONSUMPTIONTOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITYTRADE SHOCKSUNEMPLOYMENTWAGESWORLD ECONOMYcomputable general equilibrium modelsCGE modelsWorld Bank10.1596/1813-9450-6517