Dang, Hai-Anh H.Ianchovichina, Elena2016-04-262016-04-262016-03-10https://hdl.handle.net/10986/24136This paper studies welfare dynamics, especially changes associated with middle-class status in countries in the Middle East and North Africa, before and after the Arab Spring transitions, using objective and subjective welfare measures. Absent panel data, the analysis employs state-of-the-art synthetic panel techniques using repeated cross sections of expenditure data from household surveys and subjective well-being data from value surveys, which were conducted during the 2000s and the Arab Spring period. The objective welfare dynamics indicate mixed trends. About half the poor in the 2000s moved out of poverty by the end of the decade, but chronic poverty remained high; upward mobility was strong in Syria and Tunisia, but downward mobility was pronounced in Yemen and Egypt. Subjective well-being dynamics suggest negative developments in most countries during the Arab Spring transitions. Low education achievement, informal worker status, and rural residency are positively associated with lower than average chances for upward mobility, and greater than average chances for downward mobility according to both types of welfare measures.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOHOUSEHOLD SURVEYCAPITA INCOMEPOVERTY LINEECONOMIC GROWTHNON-POOR GROUPPRO- POORINCOME POVERTYECONOMIC LITERATUREINCOMENORMAL DISTRIBUTIONSCHOOLINGPOVERTY RATESINCOME REGIONSANNUAL GROWTH RATENATIONAL POVERTY LINEREGIONAL LEVELTOTAL POVERTYCONSUMPTION DATADEVELOPING COUNTRIESNATIONAL POVERTYPOLICY DISCUSSIONSPOOR PEOPLEEXTREME POVERTY LINEESTIMATION RESULTSANNUAL GROWTHDISAGGREGATED LEVELCONSUMPTION GROWTHMEASURESNATIONAL POVERTY LINESREGIONPOVERTY REDUCTIONECONOMIC ACTIVITYPER CAPITA INCOMESPRO-POORMEASURING POVERTYPER CAPITA INCOMEPOPULATION GROUPDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSHOUSEHOLD HEADFOOD POVERTY LINEINCOME CHANGEINCOME INEQUALITYVULNERABLE HOUSEHOLDSDATA QUALITYPOVERTY INCIDENCEINTERNATIONAL POVERTY LINEHOUSEHOLD COMPOSITIONHOUSEHOLD INCOMEPOVERTY STATUSCHRONIC POVERTYHOUSEHOLD SURVEYSCONSUMPTION EXPENDITURECAPITA INCOMESSOCIAL PROTECTIONINCOME LEVELSPRODUCTPOOR GROWTHWELFARE INDICATORSCHANGES IN POVERTYHOUSEHOLD HEADSREGIONAL POPULATIONMARKET ECONOMIESFOOD ITEMSDEVELOPMENT RESEARCHREGIONAL ANALYSISPOVERTY LINESCONSUMPTIONHUMAN CAPITALREGIONAL AVERAGEREDUCING POVERTYCOUNTRY LEVELCUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTIONPOPULATION SHAREPOOR POLICYFOOD POVERTYRURAL AREAPOLICY MAKERSCHRONICALLY POORDISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONHOUSEHOLD DATAINCOME DISTRIBUTIONSDEVELOPING WORLDINCOME DISTRIBUTIONABSOLUTE POVERTYREGIONAL PRICERURALREGIONAL CONTEXTMIDDLE CLASSHOUSEHOLD BUDGETECONOMICSQUALITY OF LIFECUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONPOOR POPULATIONPER CAPITA INCOME LEVELSWELFARE MEASURESPOVERTY SITUATIONREGIONSGROWTH RATEWAREXTREME POVERTYSIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCESABSOLUTE POVERTY LINEPOVERTYHEADCOUNT POVERTYREGIONAL AVERAGESHOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTIONPRO-POOR GROWTHPOVERTY DYNAMICSPOLICY RESEARCHPOVERTY RATEPOORPRIMARY EDUCATIONWELFARE MEASUREINDICATORS OF POVERTYDEVELOPMENT INDICATORSPOLITICAL INSTABILITYRURAL RESIDENCEDEVELOPMENT POLICYINCOME GROUPSINEQUALITYGROWTHPOOR HOUSEHOLDSWorking PaperWorld Bank10.1596/1813-9450-7595