Vergara, WalterScholz, Sebastian M.2012-03-192012-03-192011978-0-8213-8621-7https://hdl.handle.net/10986/2531The Amazon basin is a key component of the global carbon cycle. The old-growth rainforests in the basin represent storage of ~ 120 petagrams of carbon (Pg C) in their biomass. Annually, these tropical forests process approximately 18 Pg C through respiration and photosynthesis. This is more than twice the rate of global anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions. The basin is also the largest global repository of biodiversity and produces about 20 percent of the world's flow of fresh water into the oceans. Despite the large carbon dioxide (CO2) efflux from recent deforestation, the Amazon rainforest ecosystem is still considered to be a net carbon sinks of 0.8-1.1 Pg C per year because growth on average exceeds mortality (Phillips et al. 2008). However, current climate trends and human-induced deforestation may be transforming forest structure and behavior (Phillips et al. 2009). Increasing temperatures may accelerate respiration rates and thus carbon emissions from soils (Malhi and Grace 2000). High probabilities for modification in rainfall patterns (Malhi et al. 2008) and prolonged drought stress may lead to reductions in biomass density. Resulting changes in evapo-transpiration and therefore convective precipitation could further accelerate drought conditions and destabilize the tropical ecosystem as a whole, causing a reduction in its biomass carrying capacity or dieback. In turn, changes in the structure of the Amazon and its associated water cycle will have implications for the many endemic species it contains and result in changes at a continental scale. Clearly, with much at stake, if climate-induced damage alters the state of the Amazon ecosystem, there is a need to better understand its risk, process, and dynamics. The objective of this study is to assist in understanding the risk, process, and dynamics of potential Amazon dieback and its implications.CC BY 3.0 IGOABOVEGROUND VEGETATIONAEROSOLSAIRAIR TEMPERATUREAMAZON DEFORESTATIONAMAZON FORESTAMAZON RAINFORESTAMAZONIAN FORESTAMAZONIAN RAINFALLANNUAL PRECIPITATIONATMOSPHEREATMOSPHERE-OCEAN GENERAL CIRCULATIONATMOSPHEREOCEAN GENERAL CIRCULATIONATMOSPHERIC CARBONATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDEATMOSPHERIC RESEARCHBIOCLIMATIC LIMITSBIOMASS CARBONBIOMASS DENSITYBIOSPHERECARBONCARBON CHANGECARBON CONTENTCARBON DIOXIDE LEVELSCARBON EMISSIONCARBON EMISSIONSCARBON SINKCARBON STARVATIONCENTURY TEMPERATURECLEAN ENERGYCLIMATECLIMATE CHANGECLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATIONCLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTSCLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONSCLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOSCLIMATE CHANGESCLIMATE CONDITIONSCLIMATE EQUILIBRIUMCLIMATE EXTREMESCLIMATE FEEDBACKSCLIMATE FORCINGCLIMATE IMPACTCLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCHCLIMATE IMPACTSCLIMATE MODELCLIMATE MODELSCLIMATE POLICIESCLIMATE PREDICTIONCLIMATE RESEARCHCLIMATE RESEARCH UNITCLIMATE SCENARIOCLIMATE SCENARIOSCLIMATE SCIENCECLIMATE SIMULATIONCLIMATE SIMULATIONSCLIMATE TRENDSCLIMATE-VEGETATION MODELCLIMATIC CHANGESCLIMATIC CONDITIONSCLIMATIC FACTORSCLIMATIC RESEARCHCLIMATIC VARIABLECLIMATOLOGYCLOUD COVERCLOUDSCO2COLORSCONVECTIVE PRECIPITATIONCONVERGENCECRUDEFORESTATIONDEFORESTATION SCENARIOSDROUGHTDRY FORESTSDRY SEASONDYNAMIC GLOBAL VEGETATION MODELECOSYSTEMECOSYSTEM RESILIENCEECOSYSTEM RESPONSESECOSYSTEM STRUCTUREEMISSIONEMISSION SCENARIOEMISSION SCENARIOSEMISSION TRAJECTORIESEMISSIONSEMISSIONS FROM SOILSEMISSIONS SCENARIOSENDEMIC SPECIESENERGY EFFICIENCYENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONSENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMISTEVAPORATIONEVAPOTRANSPIRATIONEXTREME DRYEXTREME EVENTSEXTREME PRECIPITATIONEXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENTSEXTREME WEATHEREXTREME WEATHER EVENTSFERTILIZATIONFLOODSFORESTFOREST BIOMASSFOREST BIOMASS ESTIMATEFOREST CARBONFOREST CONSERVATIONFOREST COVERFOREST DEGRADATIONFOREST DIEBACKFOREST ECOSYSTEMSFOREST GROWTHFOREST MICROCLIMATOLOGYFOREST STANDSFOREST STRUCTUREFOREST TYPESFORESTSFOSSIL FUELFOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONSFOSSIL FUELSGCMGENERAL CIRCULATION MODELGHGGHGSGLOBAL AVERAGE SURFACE WARMINGGLOBAL BIODIVERSITYGLOBAL CARBON CYCLEGLOBAL CLIMATEGLOBAL EMISSIONGLOBAL EMISSIONSGLOBAL GREENHOUSE GASGLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONGLOBAL PRECIPITATIONGLOBAL PRECIPITATION CLIMATOLOGYGLOBAL SCALEGLOBAL VEGETATIONGLOBAL WARMINGGREENHOUSEGREENHOUSE GASESHYDROLOGICAL CHANGESHYDROLOGYICEIMPACT OF CLIMATEIMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGEINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGEINTERNATIONAL CLIMATE POLICYINTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONEIPCCITCZLAND SURFACELAND USELAND USE CHANGELAND USE CHANGESLIGHTNINGLOSS OF VEGETATIONMEAN RAINFALLMETEOROLOGICAL RESEARCHMETHANENITROGENOCEANSPHOTOSYNTHESISPLANT GROWTHPRECIPITATIONRADIATIVE FORCINGRAINRAINFALLRAINFALL ANOMALIESRAINFALL DISTRIBUTIONSRAINFALL REDUCTIONRAINFALL TRENDRAINFALL VARIABILITYRENEWABLE ENERGYRESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGESCIENTISTSSEA LEVEL RISESEASONSEASONAL RAINFALLSULPHATESURFACE MODELSURFACE PRESSURESURFACE RUNOFFSURFACE TEMPERATURESURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIESSURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGESURFACE TEMPERATURESSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENTTEMPERATE FORESTSTEMPERATURE ANOMALIESTEMPERATURE ANOMALYTEMPERATURE CHANGETEMPERATURE CHANGESTEMPERATURE INCREASETEMPERATURE INDEXESTREE SPECIESTROPICAL BROADLEAF EVERGREENTROPICAL FORESTTROPICAL FOREST BIOMASSTROPICAL FORESTSTROPICSURBAN AREASVEGETATION CARBONVEGETATION CHANGEVEGETATION DYNAMICSVEGETATION GROWTHWATER CYCLEWEATHER FORECASTINGWEATHER PREDICTIONWET SEASONWINDWOODLANDWorld Bank10.1596/978-0-8213-8621-7