Hochman, GalRajagopal, DeepakTimilsina, GovindaZilberman, David2012-03-192012-03-192011-08-01https://hdl.handle.net/10986/3506The food commodity price increases beginning in 2001 and culminating in the food crisis of 2007/08 reflected a combination of several factors, including economic growth, biofuel expansion, exchange rate fluctuations, and energy price inflation. To quantify these influences, the authors developed an empirical model that also included crop inventory adjustments. The study shows that, if inventory effects are not taken into account, the impacts of the various factors on food commodity price inflation would be overestimated. If the analysis ignores crop inventory adjustments, it indicates that prices of corn, soybean, rapeseed, rice, and wheat would have been, respectively, 42, 38, 52, and 45 percent lower than the corresponding observed prices in 2007. If inventories are properly taken into account, the contributions of the above mentioned factors to those commodity prices are 36, 26, 26, and 35 percent, respectively. Those four factors, taken together, explain 70 percent of the price increase for corn, 55 percent for soybean, 54 percent for wheat, and 47 percent for rice during the 2001-2007 period. Other factors, such as speculation, trade policy, and weather shocks, which are not included in the analysis, might be responsible for the remaining contribution to the food commodity price increases.CC BY 3.0 IGOABSOLUTE VALUEAGGREGATE DEMANDAGGREGATE DEMAND CURVEAGGREGATE SUPPLYAGRICULTURAL OUTPUTAGRICULTURAL POLICYAGRICULTURAL PRICESAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIONAGRICULTUREANALYSIS OF VARIANCEANNUAL EXCHANGE RATEBALANCE OF PAYMENTSBASE YEARBUFFERCAPITAL FLOWSCEREALSCOMMODITY MARKETSCOMMODITY PRICECOMMODITY PRICESCOMPETITIVE EQUILIBRIUMCONSUMER PRICECONSUMER PRICE INDEXCONSUMER SURPLUSCONSUMERSCONSUMPTION DEMANDCONSUMPTION EXPENDITURESCONSUMPTION INCREASESCORNCORN PRICECORN PRICESCORRELATION COEFFICIENTCURRENCYDAIRYDEMAND CURVEDEMAND FOR FOODDEMAND FUNCTIONDEMAND FUNCTIONSDEMAND GROWTHDEPRECIATIONDESCRIPTIVE STATISTICSDEVELOPMENT POLICYDISPOSABLE INCOMEDOMESTIC CONSUMPTIONDOMESTIC DEMANDDOMESTIC PRICEDOMESTIC PRICESDUMMY VARIABLESECONOMIC EQUILIBRIUMECONOMIC GROWTHELASTICITYEMERGING MARKETSENERGY DEMANDENERGY PRICEENERGY PRICESEQUILIBRIUM ANALYSISEQUILIBRIUM CONDITIONEQUILIBRIUM LEVELEXCESS DEMANDEXCESS SUPPLYEXCHANGE RATEEXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONSEXCHANGE RATE SHOCKEXCHANGE RATE SHOCKSEXCHANGE RATESEXPENDITUREEXPENDITURESEXPORTSEXTREME POVERTYFACTOR PRICESFEDERAL RESERVEFOOD CONSUMPTIONFOOD CROPSFOOD DEMANDFOOD EXPORTFOOD EXPORTSFOOD MARKETSFOOD POLICYFOOD POLICY RESEARCHFOOD PRICEFOOD PRICE INFLATIONFOOD PRICESFOOD PRODUCTIONFOOD SECURITYFOOD SUBSIDIESFOODSFREE TRADEGDPGDP PER CAPITAGENERAL EQUILIBRIUMGENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELGENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELSGLOBAL DEMANDGLOBAL FOOD SUPPLYGLOBALIZATIONGNPGRAINSGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITAGROWTH RATEGROWTH RATESHIGH-INCOME COUNTRIESIFPRIIMPACT OF SHOCKSIMPORTIMPORT BARRIERSIMPORT TARIFFSIMPORTSINCOMEINCOME EFFECTINCOME EFFECTSINCOME ELASTICITIESINCOME ELASTICITYINCOME ELASTICITY OF DEMANDINCOME GROWTHINPUT PRICESINSTRUMENTAL VARIABLEINTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTEINTERNATIONAL PRICEINVENTORIESINVENTORYLOCAL CURRENCYLONG-TERM EQUILIBRIUMLOW-INCOME COUNTRIESM1MACROECONOMIC INDICATORSMAIZEMAJOR CURRENCIESMAJOR WORLD CURRENCIESMARKET ANALYSISMARKET EQUILIBRIUMMARKET POWERMARKETINGMEATMEATSMILK POWDEROIL PRICESOIL SUPPLIESOPPORTUNITY COSTSPATENTSPER CAPITA INCOMEPER CAPITA INCOMESPETROLEUM PRICESPOPULATION GROWTHPORKPRICE CHANGEPRICE CHANGESPRICE CONTROLSPRICE DYNAMICSPRICE EFFECTPRICE ELASTICITIESPRICE ELASTICITYPRICE ELASTICITY OF DEMANDPRICE ELASTICITY OF SUPPLYPRICE FLUCTUATIONPRICE FLUCTUATIONSPRICE INCREASEPRICE INCREASESPRICE INDICESPRICE INFLATIONPRICE LEVELPRICE STABILITYPRICE TRENDSPRICE VOLATILITYPRIMARY COMMODITIESPRIMARY COMMODITYPROCESSED FOODSPRODUCTION COSTSPRODUCTION FUNCTIONPRODUCTIVITYPRODUCTIVITY GROWTHPROTEINRANDOM WALKRAPID GROWTHRATE OF GROWTHREFINERIESREGULATORY FRAMEWORKRESTAURANTSRETAILSLOWDOWNSOYBEANSOYBEANSSTANDARD DEVIATIONSTAPLE FOODSSTOCKSSTRONG DEMANDSUBSTITUTESUBSTITUTESSUGARSUGARCANESUPERMARKETSSUPPLIERSSUPPLY CHAINSUPPLY CURVESSUPPLY FUNCTIONSUPPLY SHOCKSSUPPLY SIDESUPPLY-SIDESURPLUSTARIFF REDUCTIONSTOTAL EXPORTSTOTAL IMPORTSTRADE POLICIESTRADE POLICYTRADE RESTRICTIONSUPWARD PRESSUREURUGUAY ROUNDVEGETABLE OILSWHEATWORLD DEMANDWORLD PRICEWORLD PRICESWorld Bank10.1596/1813-9450-5744