Olivera Villarroel, Marcelode la Fuente, Alejandro2013-09-042013-09-042013-05-01https://hdl.handle.net/10986/15550This paper examines the effects of climate change on poverty through the relationship between indicators of climate change (temperature and rainfall change) and municipal level gross domestic product, and subsequently between gross domestic product and poverty. The evidence suggests that climate change could have a negative impact on poverty by 2030. The paper proposes a two-stage least squares regression where it first regresses temperature and rainfall (along with geographic controls and state and year fixed effects) on municipal gross domestic product per capita for 2000 and 2005 The resulting gross domestic product per capita is used in a second equation to estimate municipal poverty on the same years. The authors then incorporate projections of temperature and rainfall changes by 2030 into the estimated climate-gross domestic product coefficients to assess the effects of climate change in economic activity and how this in turn will influence poverty. At the same time, they account for the potential adaptive capacity of municipalities through higher population densities and economic growth. Both would reduce poverty by 31.72 percentage points between 2005 and 2030 with changing climate. However, poverty could have been reduced up to 34.15 percentage points over the same period had there been no climate change. This suggests that climate change slows down the pace of poverty reduction. An alternative reading is that poverty is expected to increase from 15.25 percent (without climate change) to 17.68 percent (with climate change) by 2030. Given the existing population projections for 2030, this represents 2,902,868 people remaining in poverty as a result of climate change.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOABSOLUTE TEMPERATUREAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITYANTARCTICAASSET POVERTYATMOSPHEREBUSINESS AS USUAL SCENARIOCHANGES IN POVERTYCLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTSCLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOSCLIMATE CHANGESCLIMATE CONDITIONSCLIMATE DATACLIMATE EFFECTSCLIMATE MODELCLIMATE MODELSCLIMATE PROJECTIONSCLIMATE RESEARCHCLIMATE VARIABILITYCLIMATE VARIABLESCLIMATE-RELATED DISASTERSCLIMATIC CONDITIONSCLIMATIC DISASTERSCLIMATIC EVENTSCLIMATIC FACTORSCLIMATIC RESEARCHCLIMATIC VARIABLESCO2COASTAL REGIONSCONSUMPTION DATACROP YIELDCRUDAILY TEMPERATUREECONOMIC ACTIVITYECONOMIC ANALYSISECONOMIC CONDITIONSECONOMIC GROWTHECONOMIC IMPACTSECONOMIC SHOCKSEFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGEEMISSIONEMISSIONSEMISSIONS SCENARIOSEXTREME DRYEXTREME POVERTYFERTILIZATIONFLOODSFOOD POVERTYFOSSIL FUELSFUTURE CLIMATE CHANGEGENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELGLOBAL CLIMATEGLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGEGLOBAL WARMINGGREENHOUSEGREENHOUSE GASESHOUSEHOLD WELFAREHOUSINGHUMAN DEVELOPMENTHYDROLOGICAL MODELHYDROLOGYIMPACT OF CLIMATEIMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGEIMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGEIMPACTS OF TEMPERATUREINCOMEINCOME POVERTYINDICATORS OF CLIMATE CHANGEINSURANCEINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGEIPCCIRRIGATIONLAND SURFACELIVING STANDARDSLOCAL RAINFALLMETEOROLOGICAL STATIONSMOUNTAINOUS REGIONSNATURAL DISASTERSNEGATIVE IMPACTOUTPUT DECLINESPER CAPITA INCOMEPOOR HOUSEHOLDSPOVERTY ESTIMATESPOVERTY IMPACTPOVERTY LEVELSPOVERTY LINEPOVERTY MAPPINGPOVERTY MAPSPOVERTY MEASURESPOVERTY RATEPOVERTY RATESPOVERTY REDUCTIONPPPRECIPITATIONRAINRAINFALLRAINFALL SCENARIOSRAINFALL VARIABILITYRURAL POVERTYSOCIAL DIMENSIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGESTORMSSURFACE ENERGYSURFACE VEGETATIONSURFACE WATERTEMPERATURETEMPERATURE CHANGETEMPERATURE CHANGESTEMPERATURE INCREASESTEMPERATURESWARMING CLIMATEWELFARE LEVELWorld Bank10.1596/1813-9450-6461