Bhattacharyya, Subhes C.Timilsina, Govinda R.2012-03-192012-03-192009-03-01https://hdl.handle.net/10986/4061This paper critically reviews existing energy demand forecasting methodologies highlighting the methodological diversities and developments over the past four decades in order to investigate whether the existing energy demand models are appropriate for capturing the specific features of developing countries. The study finds that two types of approaches, econometric and end-use accounting, are used in the existing energy demand models. Although energy demand models have greatly evolved since the early 1970s, key issues such as the poor-rich and urban-rural divides, traditional energy resources, and differentiation between commercial and non-commercial energy commodities are often poorly reflected in these models. While the end-use energy accounting models with detailed sector representations produce more realistic projections compared with the econometric models, they still suffer from huge data deficiencies especially in developing countries. Development and maintenance of more detailed energy databases, further development of models to better reflect developing country context, and institutionalizing the modeling capacity in developing countries are the key requirements for energy demand modeling to deliver richer and more reliable input to policy formulation in developing countries.CC BY 3.0 IGOAFFORDABLE ENERGYAGGREGATE DEMANDAGGREGATE ENERGY DEMANDAGGREGATE LEVELAGRICULTUREALLOCATION MODELALTERNATIVE USESANNUAL ENERGY OUTLOOKAPPLIANCE STOCKSAPPROACHAVAILABILITYBIOMASSCALORIFIC CONTENTCAPACITY SHORTAGESCLEAN ENERGYCLIMATE CHANGECLIMATIC CONDITIONSCOMMERCIAL ENERGYCOMMERCIAL ENERGY DEMANDCONSUMER DEMANDCONSUMERSCONSUMPTION INCREASESCOOKINGCOST OF ENERGYCRUDE OILDECISION MAKINGDEMAND CATEGORYDEMAND CURVEDEMAND ELASTICITYDEMAND FOR ELECTRICITYDEMAND FOR ENERGYDEMAND FOR ENERGY PRODUCTSDEMAND FOR ENERGY SERVICESECONOMETRIC ANALYSESECONOMETRIC ANALYSISECONOMETRIC MODELSECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONSECONOMIC BARRIERSECONOMIC FORECASTSECONOMIC INTEGRATIONECONOMIC MODELSECONOMIC STRUCTUREECONOMIC THEORIESELASTICITY OF DEMANDELECTRICITYELECTRICITY DEMANDELECTRICITY GENERATIONEMPLOYMENTEND-USEEND-USE ENERGYEND-USESENERGY ANALYSISENERGY BALANCEENERGY COMPANIESENERGY CONVERSIONENERGY DECISIONENERGY DEMANDENERGY DEMAND ANALYSISENERGY DEMAND FORECASTINGENERGY DEMAND GROWTHENERGY EFFICIENCYENERGY FORMENERGY INDUSTRYENERGY INPUTENERGY INTENSITYENERGY MARKETSENERGY MODELENERGY MODELINGENERGY MODELSENERGY NEEDSENERGY OUTLOOKENERGY PLANNINGENERGY POLICIESENERGY POLICYENERGY POLICY ANALYSISENERGY PRICEENERGY PRICESENERGY PROBLEMENERGY PRODUCTSENERGY REQUIREMENTENERGY RESOURCESENERGY SOURCEENERGY SUPPLYENERGY SYSTEMSENERGY USEENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTSEXTERNALITIESFACTOR DEMANDFINAL ENERGY DEMANDFORECASTING MODELSFORECASTING TECHNIQUESFORECASTSFOSSILFOSSIL FUELSFREIGHT TRANSPORTFUELFUEL DEMANDFUEL PRICEFUEL SUBSTITUTIONFUNCTIONAL FORMSFUTURE ENERGY DEMANDGDPGNPGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTGROSS NATIONAL PRODUCTGROSS OUTPUTGROWTH RATEINCOMEINCOME ELASTICITY OF DEMANDINCOMPLETE MARKETSINDUSTRIAL ACTIVITIESINTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCYINVENTORYKEROSENEMARGINAL UTILITYNATIONAL INCOMEOILOIL CRISISOIL DEMANDOIL PRICEOPTIMIZATIONPER CAPITA ENERGYPOLLUTIONPOWERPOWER SECTORPRICE OF ENERGYPRIMARY ENERGYPRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTIONPRIMARY ENERGY DEMANDPURCHASING POWERREAL INCOMERENEWABLE ENERGIESRENEWABLE ENERGYRESIDENTIAL DEMANDRURAL ENERGYSOURCE OF ENERGYSTATISTICAL ANALYSISSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENTSUSTAINABLE ENERGYSUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURESYSTEMS ANALYSISTOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTIONTOTAL ENERGY DEMANDTOTAL OUTPUTTRADITIONAL FUELSUNEMPLOYMENTUTILITY FUNCTIONUTILITY MAXIMIZATIONVALUATIONVALUE JUDGMENTSVALUE OF OUTPUTVEHICLESWORLD ENERGYWORLD ENERGY COUNCILWorld Bank10.1596/1813-9450-4866