Bonch-Osmolovskiy, MishaHeltberg, Rasmus2012-03-192012-03-192011-01-01https://hdl.handle.net/10986/3324This paper develops a methodology for regional disaggregated estimation and mapping of the areas that are ex-ante the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and variability and applies it to Tajikistan, a mountainous country highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The authors construct the vulnerability index as a function of exposure to climate variability and natural disasters, sensitivity to the impacts of that exposure, and capacity to adapt to ongoing and future climatic changes. This index can inform decisions about adaptation responses that might benefit from an assessment of how and why vulnerability to climate change varies regionally and it may therefore prove a useful tool for policy analysts interested in how to ensure pro-poor adaptation in developing countries. Index results for Tajikistan suggest that vulnerability varies according to socio-economic and institutional development in ways that do not follow directly from exposure or elevation: geography is not destiny. The results indicate that urban areas are by far the least vulnerable, while the eastern Region of Republican Subordination mountain zone is the most vulnerable. Prime agricultural valleys are also relatively more vulnerable, implying that adaptation planners do not necessarily face a trade-off between defending vulnerable areas and defending economically important areas. These results lend support to at least some elements of current adaptation practice.CC BY 3.0 IGOADAPTATIONADAPTATION DEFICITADAPTATION EFFORTSADAPTATION INTERVENTIONSADAPTATION PLANNERSADAPTATION PLANNINGADAPTATION PRACTICEADAPTATION PROGRAMADAPTATION RESPONSESADAPTATION STRATEGIESADAPTATION TO CLIMATEADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGEADAPTINGADAPTIVE ACTIONSADAPTIVE BEHAVIORSADAPTIVE CAPACITYADAPTIVE RESPONSESALTITUDEANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGECALCULATIONCIVIL WARCLIMATECLIMATE CHANGECLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTSCLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCHCLIMATE CHANGE RISKCLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITYCLIMATE EVENTSCLIMATE INVESTMENTCLIMATE MODELSCLIMATE POLICYCLIMATE RESILIENCECLIMATE RISKSCLIMATE VULNERABILITYCLIMATIC CHANGECLIMATIC CHANGESCROP DIVERSIFICATIONCROP LANDDEVELOPING COUNTRIESDEVELOPMENT POLICYDISASTER RISKDISASTER RISK MANAGEMENTDRY MONTHSEARTHQUAKEECOLOGICAL ZONESECONOMIC ACTIVITYECONOMIC COSTSECONOMIC STATUSECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGEENVIRONMENTAL CHANGEEXPOSURE TO CLIMATE CHANGEEXPOSURE TO CLIMATE VARIABILITYEXTREME TEMPERATURESEXTREME VALUESFINANCIAL CONSTRAINTSFOOD INSECURITYFOOD SECURITYFUTURE CLIMATE CHANGESHOT MONTHSHOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTIONHOUSEHOLD FOOD SECURITYHOUSEHOLD LEVELHOUSEHOLD SURVEYSHUMAN DEVELOPMENTIMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGEINCOMEINFORMATION SYSTEMSINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGEIPCCLAND MANAGEMENTLAND USELEVEL OF EDUCATIONMALADAPTATIONMETEOROLOGICAL DATAMIGRANTMIGRANT WORKERSMIGRANTSMIGRATIONMORTALITYMORTALITY RATENATIONAL LEVELNATURAL CLIMATIC DISASTERSNATURAL DISASTERNATURAL DISASTERSNATURAL RESOURCEPOLICY DISCUSSIONSPOLICY MAKERSPOLICY RESEARCHPOLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPERPOPULATION DENSITYPRECIPITATIONPROGRESSPUBLIC SERVICEPUBLIC SERVICESREMITTANCEREMITTANCESRESPECTRISK MANAGEMENTRURAL AREASSERVICE AREASSOCIAL DEVELOPMENTSOCIAL DIMENSIONSSOCIAL DIMENSIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGESOCIAL LIMITS TO ADAPTATIONSOCIAL POLICIESSOCIAL PROTECTION MECHANISMSSOCIAL VULNERABILITYSOCIAL VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGESUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENTTEMPERATURETEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONSTEMPERATURE VARIATIONURBAN AREASURBAN POPULATIONURBANIZATIONVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGEWorld Bank10.1596/1813-9450-5554