World Bank2012-06-182012-06-182005-11https://hdl.handle.net/10986/8351This Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) for the Republic of Belarus takes stock of the growth trends in the country's economy since 1996, reviews the evidence of the accumulated challenges and risks within the existing growth patterns, and provides recommendations aimed at strengthening growth sustainability. In sum, while economic growth in the last nine years has been impressive, the report argues that maintaining the current growth strategy would lead to a gradual erosion of economic competitiveness. The government should make significant policy adjustments by reorienting its policies toward ensuring a better business environment, and a smaller sized government. Current international and domestic environment are favorable for supporting a policy shift toward the acceleration of structural reforms. At the moment, the government is well equipped to mitigate the potential costs of these reforms, because the policy settings are largely determined by the growing economy, the positive trends in both the enterprise and the household sectors, favorable developments in the global economy, low debt, and the strong administrative capacity of the state. This situation could change: various pressures might become stronger, and then these same reforms would become politically more costly, and fiscally more risky. In short, the current window of opportunity should be used to ensure that the authorities' growth and poverty objectives are sustainable in the medium to long terms. The analysis in this report has documented a significant and broad-based growth, while pointing to the erosion of several important factors that have driven this growth recently. The Belarusian economy is facing a considerable risk of declining competitiveness. To sustain growth, a significant policy adjustment is necessary to enhance market discipline, and encourage new business entry.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOADVERSE IMPACTAGRICULTUREAPPARELAVERAGE PRICEBARTERBILATERAL MARKET ACCESSBUDGET CONSTRAINTSBUDGET DEFICITSBUDGETARY SUPPORTBUSINESS ENVIRONMENTCAPITAL INVESTMENTSCAPITAL MARKETSCAPITAL STOCKCOMMERCIAL CREDITCOMPARATIVE ADVANTAGESCOMPETITIVE ADVANTAGECOMPETITIVE DISADVANTAGECOMPETITIVE POSITIONCOMPETITIVE PRESSURESCOMPETITIVENESSCONSUMER GOODSCREDIT RATIONINGCURRENCYCURRENCY APPRECIATIONCURRENT ACCOUNTCUSTOMSCUSTOMS ADMINISTRATIONCUSTOMS CLEARANCECUSTOMS PROCEDURESCUSTOMS VALUATIONDAMAGESDEBTDEPRESSED PRICESDIRECTED CREDITDOMESTIC COMPETITIONDOMESTIC DEMANDDOMESTIC ENTERPRISESDOMESTIC PRODUCERSDYNAMIC BENEFITSECONOMIC COMPETITIONECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESSECONOMIC CRISESECONOMIC GROWTHECONOMIC PERFORMANCEEXCHANGE RATEEXPENDITUREEXPORT DIVERSIFICATIONEXPORT EXPANSIONEXPORT GROWTHEXPORT MARKETEXPORT MARKETSEXPORT PATTERNSEXPORT PERFORMANCEEXPORT STRUCTUREEXPORT VOLUMESEXPORTERSEXPORTSEXTERNAL MARKETEXTERNAL MARKETSEXTERNAL SHOCKSFOOD PROCESSINGFOREIGN EXCHANGEFOREIGN INVESTMENTGDPGLOBAL ECONOMYGLOBAL INTEGRATIONGROWTH EPISODEGROWTH MODELGROWTH MODELSGROWTH PERFORMANCEGROWTH POTENTIALGROWTH PROSPECTSGROWTH RATESHEADCOUNT RATIOHIGH CONCENTRATIONIMPORT TARIFFIMPORT TARIFFSIMPORTED GOODSINDUSTRIAL CAPACITYINDUSTRIAL POLICYINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTIVITYINDUSTRIAL RESTRUCTURINGINDUSTRIAL SECTORINDUSTRY TRADEINEFFICIENCYINFLATIONINTELLECTUAL PROPERTYINTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHTSINTEREST RATEINTERNATIONAL CAPITALINTERNATIONAL COMPETITIONINTERNATIONAL STANDARDSINVESTMENT CLIMATEINVESTMENT GROWTHLABOR COSTSLABOR MARKETSLABOR MOBILITYLABOR MOVEMENTLABOR PRODUCTIVITYMACROECONOMIC CONDITIONSMACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENTMACROECONOMIC POLICIESMACROECONOMIC STABILIZATIONMARKET ACCESSMARKET ECONOMYMARKET ENTRYMEDIUM TERMMONETARY POLICYMUTUAL TRADENATIONAL POVERTY LINENEIGHBORING COUNTRIESNON-TARIFF BARRIERSOPEN ECONOMYOUTPUT GROWTHPAYROLL TAXESPOVERTY RATESPOVERTY REDUCTIONPRICE ADVANTAGEPRICE CONTROLSPRIVATE SECTORPRIVATE SECTOR INVOLVEMENTPRODUCT MARKETSPRODUCTION COSTSPRODUCTIVITYPRODUCTIVITY GROWTHPROFIT MARGINPROFIT MARGINSPROPERTY RIGHTSPUBLIC SPENDINGREGIONAL STANDARDSREGULATORY REGIMERELATIVE PRICESSALESSPECIALIZATIONSTRUCTURAL REFORMSTARIFF BARRIERSTARIFF RATESTARIFF SCHEDULETAXATIONTAXATION RATESTERMS OF TRADETRADE DEFICITTRADE PERFORMANCETRADE REGIMETRADE RELATIONSTRANSITION ECONOMIESTURNOVERUNEMPLOYMENTUNSKILLED LABORVALUATIONVALUE OF IMPORTSWAGESWORLD ECONOMYWTOWorld Bank10.1596/8351