Steinbuks, JevgenijsHertel, Thomas W.2014-06-262014-06-262014-06https://hdl.handle.net/10986/18810Economic, agronomic, and biophysical drivers affect global land use, so all three influences need to be considered in evaluating economically optimal allocations of the world's land resources. A dynamic, forward-looking optimization framework applied over the course of the coming century shows that although some deforestation is optimal in the near term, in the absence of climate change regulation, the desirability of further deforestation is eliminated by mid-century. Although adverse productivity shocks from climate change have a modest effect on global land use, such shocks combined with rapid growth in energy prices lead to significant deforestation and higher greenhouse gas emissions than in the baseline. Imposition of a global greenhouse gas emissions constraint further heightens the competition for land, as fertilizer use declines and land-based mitigation strategies expand. However, anticipation of the constraint largely dilutes its environmental effectiveness, as deforestation accelerates prior to imposition of the target.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOAEROSOLSAGRICULTURAL ECONOMICSAGRICULTURAL OUTPUTAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIONAGRICULTURAL SYSTEMSALLOCATIONALTERNATIVE SCENARIOSANNUAL ENERGY OUTLOOKANNUAL NET FLUX OF CARBONANTHROPOGENIC CARBON EMISSIONSATMOSPHEREATMOSPHERIC CARBONBASELINE LEVELSBEQUEST VALUEBIO-ENERGYBIOMASSBIOMASS BURNINGCALCULATIONCAPITAL ADJUSTMENTCAPSCARBONCARBON DIOXIDECARBON LEAKAGECARBON PRICESCARBON SEQUESTRATIONCARBON STOCKCARBON STOCKSCARBON TAXESCHANGES IN LAND USECLCLEAN ENERGYCLIMATECLIMATE CHANGECLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTSCLIMATE POLICIESCLIMATE POLICYCO2COMBUSTIONCONSUMER DEMANDCOST OF PRODUCTIONDEBTDECISION MAKINGDEFORESTATIONDEFORESTATION RATEDEFORESTATION RATESDEGRADED LANDSDEGREE DAYSDEMAND FOR ENERGYDEMAND FOR ENERGY SERVICESDIESELDISCOUNT RATEDYNAMIC MODELECOLOGICAL ECONOMICSECONOMIC ANALYSISECONOMIC DYNAMICSECONOMIC MODELSECONOMIC PERSPECTIVEECONOMIC THEORYECONOMICSECOSYSTEMECOSYSTEMSELASTICITIESELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTIONELECTRIC POWERELECTRIC POWER SECTOREMISSIONEMISSIONS ABATEMENTEMISSIONS CONTROLEMISSIONS FROM DEFORESTATIONEMISSIONS FROM LAND USEEMISSIONS FROM LAND USE CHANGEEMISSIONS FROM LIVESTOCKEMISSIONS FROM PETROLEUMEMISSIONS INTENSITYENERGY CONSUMPTIONENERGY COSTSENERGY DEMANDENERGY ECONOMICSENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATIONENERGY POLICYENERGY PRICEENERGY PRICESENERGY PRODUCTIONENERGY TECHNOLOGIESENERGY TECHNOLOGYENERGY USEENTERIC FERMENTATIONENVIRONMENTALENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENTENVIRONMENTAL REGULATIONEQUILIBRIUMETHANOLEXPENDITURESFEEDSTOCKSFERTILIZATIONFERTILIZERSFOOD PRODUCTIONFORESTFOREST AREAFOREST AREASFOREST CARBONFOREST CONSERVATIONFOREST CONVERSIONFOREST COVERFOREST LANDFOREST LANDSFOREST MANAGEMENTFOREST MANAGEMENT STRATEGIESFOREST PRODUCTIONFOREST PRODUCTSFOREST SINKSFOREST STRUCTUREFORESTRYFORESTRY SECTORFORESTSFOSSIL FUELFOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONSFOSSIL FUELSFUEL CONSUMPTIONFUEL PRICESFUEL SUPPLYFUELSGHGGHGSGLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGEGLOBAL ENERGY USEGLOBAL GREENHOUSEGLOBAL GREENHOUSE GASGLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONSGLOBAL WARMINGGREENHOUSEGREENHOUSE GASGREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONSGREENHOUSE GAS MITIGATIONGREENHOUSE GASESIMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGEINCOMEINCREASE IN CONSUMPTIONINPUT PRICESINTERNATIONAL ENERGY OUTLOOKIPCCIRREVERSIBILITYLAND ALLOCATION DECISIONSLAND MANAGEMENTLAND RESOURCESLAND USELAND USE CHANGELAND USE COMPETITIONLAND USE DECISIONSLAND-USE CHANGELAND-USE EMISSIONSLIQUID FUELSLIVESTOCK EMISSIONSLIVESTOCK PRODUCTSLOSS OF BIODIVERSITYMANUREMARGINAL COSTMARKET FAILURESMARKET PRICESNATURAL CAPITALNATURAL ECOSYSTEMSNATURAL FORESTSNATURAL GASNATURAL GAS PRICESNATURAL RESOURCESNITROGENNITROGEN FERTILIZERSOILOIL EQUIVALENTOIL PRICEOIL PRICESOPTION VALUEPASTURE LANDPASTURESPER CAPITA CONSUMPTIONPER CAPITA INCOMESPETROLEUM CONSUMPTIONPETROLEUM PRODUCTSPOLICY ANALYSISPOPULATION GROWTHPOWER GENERATIONPPPRESENT VALUEPRODUCTION COSTSPRODUCTION FUNCTIONSPRODUCTION PROCESSESPRODUCTION TECHNOLOGYPRODUCTIVITY GROWTHPROPERTY RIGHTSPUBLIC GOODRENEWABLE ENERGYRESOURCE USERISING COSTSCENARIOSSENSITIVITY ANALYSESSUBSTITUTIONSUM OF EMISSIONSTECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESSTEMPERATURETERRESTRIAL CARBONTIMBERTOTAL CONSUMPTIONTOTAL DEMANDUTILITY FUNCTIONWAGESWELFARE FUNCTION10.1596/1813-9450-6928