Kousky, CarolynRostapshova, OlgaToman, MichaelZeckhauser, Richard2012-03-192012-03-192009-11-01https://hdl.handle.net/10986/4318There is a low but uncertain probability that climate change could trigger "mega-catastrophes," severe and at least partly irreversible adverse effects across broad regions. This paper first discusses the state of current knowledge and the defining characteristics of potential climate change mega-catastrophes. While some of these characteristics present difficulties for using standard rational choice methods to evaluate response options, there is still a need to balance the benefits and costs of different possible responses with appropriate attention to the uncertainties. To that end, the authors present a qualitative analysis of three options for mitigating the risk of climate mega-catastrophes - drastic abatement of greenhouse gas emissions, development and implementation of geoengineering, and large-scale ex ante adaptation - against the criteria of efficacy, cost, robustness, and flexibility. They discuss the composition of a sound portfolio of initial investments in reducing the risk of climate change mega-catastrophes.CC BY 3.0 IGOABATEMENTABATEMENT COSTSABRUPT CLIMATEABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGEABSORPTIONACIDACID RAINACIDIFICATIONADVERSE IMPACTS FROM CLIMATEAIRALBEDOALLOWANCEATMOSPHEREATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRYBIOMASSCARBONCARBON DIOXIDECARBON ENERGYCARBON ENERGY TECHNOLOGIESCARBON SEQUESTRATIONCARBON TECHNOLOGIESCATASTROPHIC CLIMATE CHANGECATASTROPHIC EVENTSCATASTROPHIC IMPACTSCLIMATECLIMATE CHANGECLIMATE CHANGE CATASTROPHESCLIMATE CHANGE DAMAGECLIMATE CHANGE DISASTERSCLIMATE CHANGE POLICIESCLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCHCLIMATE CHANGESCLIMATE DYNAMICSCLIMATE EXTREMESCLIMATE IMPACTSCLIMATE POLICYCLIMATE RESEARCHCLIMATE SENSITIVITYCLIMATE SYSTEMCLIMATE VARIABILITYCLIMATE-CHANGECLIMATE-CHANGE CATASTROPHECLIMATE-CHANGE RISK ANALYSISCLIMATIC CHANGECLIMATIC IMPACTSCLOUD COVERCOCO2CONCENTRATIONSCONTINGENCY PLANNINGCONTINGENCY PLANSCOSTS OF ABATEMENTCOSTS OF CLIMATE CHANGECOST­BENEFIT ANALYSISDAMAGESDEEP UNCERTAINTYDESERTIFICATIONDISASTERDISASTER MANAGEMENTDISASTER PREPAREDNESSDISASTER REDUCTIONDISASTER RISKDISASTER RISK REDUCTIONDISASTER RISKSDISCOUNT RATEDROUGHTDROUGHTSEARLY WARNINGECOLOGICAL ECONOMICSECONOMIC COSTSECONOMIC GROWTHECONOMIC MODELECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGEECOSYSTEMEFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGEEMERGENCY MANAGEMENTEMERGENCY RESPONDERSEMISSIONS CORRIDORSEMISSIONS LEVELSENERGY SYSTEMENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICSENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTIONEVACUATIONEXTINCTION RISK FROM CLIMATE CHANGEEXTREME EVENTEXTREME EVENTSFAT TAILFAT TAILSFERTILIZATIONFINANCIAL CRISISFINANCIAL SUPPORTFLOODFLOOD PROTECTIONFLOODEDFLOODINGFLOODSFOOD AIDFOOD SHORTAGESFORESTFOREST PRODUCTSGHGGHGSGLOBAL CLIMATEGLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGEGLOBAL EMISSIONSGLOBAL GREENHOUSE GASGLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURESGLOBAL TEMPERATUREGLOBAL WARMINGGREENHOUSEGREENHOUSE GASGREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONSGREENHOUSE GASESGREENHOUSE WARMINGHABITATSHEAT WAVEHEAT WAVESHURRICANEHURRICANESHYDROLOGIC CYCLEICE AGEICE SHEETICE SHEETSIMPACT OF CLIMATEIMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGEIMPACTS FROM CLIMATE CHANGEIMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGEINSURANCEINSURANCE INDUSTRYINSURANCE MARKETSINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGEINVESTMENT DECISIONSIPCCLOW-CARBONMEAN TEMPERATUREMEAN TEMPERATURE INCREASEMEDICINEMETHANENATIONAL INCOMENATURAL DISASTERSNATURAL PHENOMENANEGATIVE IMPACTSNEGATIVE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGENUCLEAR POWEROCEAN CIRCULATIONOCEAN CURRENTSPANDEMICPANDEMICSPARTICLESPARTICULATEPARTICULATE MATTERPARTICULATESPOLICY ANALYSISPOLICY IMPLICATIONSPORTFOLIOPRECAUTIONARY APPROACHPRECIPITATIONPUBLIC SAFETYPUMPSPURCHASESRADIATIVE FORCINGRAINFALLRAPID MELTINGRATE OF CLIMATE CHANGEREFLECTIVITYRELATIVE PRICERELATIVE PRICESRESOURCE ECONOMICSRISK MANAGEMENTRISK REDUCTIONRISK REDUCTIONSRISKS FROM CLIMATE CHANGERISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGESAFETYSCENARIOSSCIENTISTSCIENTISTSSEA LEVEL RISESEA-LEVELSEA-LEVEL RISESENSITIVITY ANALYSESSET ASIDESEVERE WEATHERSEVERE WEATHER EVENTSSTORMSTORMSSUBSISTENCE AGRICULTURESULFATESULFATE PARTICLESSULFATESSULFURTEMPERATURETEMPERATURE INCREASESTERRORISMTERRORISTTHREAT OF CLIMATE CHANGETHREATS OF CLIMATE CHANGETOTAL COSTUNCERTAINTIESUPPER ATMOSPHEREURBAN AREASUTILITY FUNCTIONUTILITY FUNCTIONSWARWorld Bank10.1596/1813-9450-5127