Ahmed, Syud AmerDiffenbaugh, Noah S.Hertel, Thomas W.Lobell, David B.Ramankutty, NavinRios, Ana R.Rowhani, Pedram2012-03-192012-03-192009-11-01https://hdl.handle.net/10986/4309Climate models generally indicate that climate volatility may rise in the future, severely affecting agricultural productivity through greater frequency of yield-diminishing climate extremes, such as droughts. For Tanzania, where agricultural production is sensitive to climate, changes in climate volatility could have significant implications for poverty. This study assesses the vulnerability of Tanzania s population to poverty to changes in climate variability between the late 20th century and early this century. Future climate scenarios with the largest increases in climate volatility are projected to make Tanzanians increasingly vulnerable to poverty through its impacts on the production of staple grains, with as many as 90,000 additional people, representing 0.26 percent of the population, entering poverty in the median case. Extreme poverty-increasing outcomes are also found to be greater in the future under certain climate scenarios. In the 20th century, the greatest predicted increase in poverty was equal to 880,000 people, while in the 21st century, the highest possible poverty increase was equal to 1.17 million people (approximately 3.4 percent of the population). The results suggest that the potential impacts of changes in climate volatility and climate extremes can be significant for poverty in Sub-Saharan African countries like Tanzania.CC BY 3.0 IGOACCESS TO FOODADMINISTRATIVE REGIONADVERSE CLIMATEAGGREGATE LEVELAGGREGATE SUPPLYAGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIESAGRICULTURAL ECONOMICSAGRICULTURAL LANDAGRICULTURAL OUTPUTAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIONAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITYAGRICULTURAL YIELDSARABLE LANDATMOSPHERIC GREENHOUSE GASATMOSPHERIC GREENHOUSE GAS CONCENTRATIONSATMOSPHERIC SCIENCESCLIMATECLIMATE CHANGECLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATIONCLIMATE CHANGE ANALYSISCLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTSCLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCHCLIMATE CHANGESCLIMATE DATACLIMATE EFFECTSCLIMATE EXTREMESCLIMATE IMPACTSCLIMATE MODELCLIMATE MODELSCLIMATE OUTCOMESCLIMATE POLICYCLIMATE PREDICTIONCLIMATE PREDICTIONSCLIMATE PROJECTIONSCLIMATE RESEARCHCLIMATE RESEARCH UNITCLIMATE SCIENCECLIMATE SYSTEMCLIMATE VARIABILITYCLIMATE VARIABLESCLIMATE VARIATIONCLIMATE VARIATIONSCLIMATEPOVERTYCLIMATESCONSUMER BEHAVIORCONSUMER DEMANDCONSUMER PRICESCONSUMPTION DATACONSUMPTION PATTERNSCROP PRODUCTIONCROP YIELDCROP YIELDSCROPLANDCRUDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSDIVERSIFICATIONDROUGHTECONOMIC ACTIVITYECONOMIC ANALYSISEMISSIONSEMISSIONS SCENARIOEXTREME CLIMATE EVENTSEXTREME EVENTSEXTREME HEATEXTREME POVERTYEXTREMES OF CLIMATEFAMINEFARMERFARMERSFINANCIAL SERVICESFLOODSFOOD EXPENDITUREFOOD INSECURITYFOOD POLICYFOOD PRICEFOOD PRICESFOOD PRODUCTIONFOOD SECURITYFOOD SUPPLYFORESTFOREST METEOROLOGYFUTURE CLIMATE CHANGEFUTURE CLIMATE SCENARIOSGCMGENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELGLOBAL CLIMATEGLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGEGLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE POLICYGLOBAL WARMINGGREENHOUSEGREENHOUSE GAS SOURCESGROWING SEASON TEMPERATUREGROWING SEASON TEMPERATURESHOUSEHOLD BEHAVIORHOUSEHOLD BUDGETHOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTIONHOUSEHOLD INCOMEHOUSEHOLD INCOMESHOUSEHOLD SURVEYIMPACT OF CLIMATEIMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGEIMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTUREINCOMEINCOME ON FOODINCREASE IN TEMPERATUREINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGEIPCCIRRIGATIONLAND USEMEAN TEMPERATUREMEATMONETARY FUNDNATIONAL INCOMENATIONAL POVERTYNATIONAL POVERTY HEADCOUNTNATIONAL POVERTY LINENATIONAL POVERTY RATENET INCOMEPER CAPITA CONSUMPTIONPOLICY MAKERSPOORPOVERTY ANALYSISPOVERTY HEADCOUNT RATEPOVERTY IMPACTPOVERTY INCREASEPOVERTY LEVELPOVERTY PROFILEPPPRECIPITATIONPRICE VOLATILITYRAINFALLREDUCTION OF POVERTYREGIONAL CLIMATEREGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGERURALRURAL AREASRURAL DEVELOPMENTRURAL LABORRURAL SECTORSEASONSUBSISTENCESUBSTITUTIONTEMPERATURETEMPERATURE DATATEMPERATURE RELATIVETEMPORAL TRENDSTOTAL POVERTYUNCERTAINTIESUNINTENDED CONSEQUENCESUTILITY FUNCTIONWorld Bank10.1596/1813-9450-5117