Rozenberg, JulieHallegatte, Stephane2015-12-182015-12-182015-11https://hdl.handle.net/10986/23447The impacts of climate change on poverty depend on the magnitude of climate change, but also on demographic and socioeconomic trends. An analysis of hundreds of baseline scenarios for future economic development in the absence of climate change in 92 countries shows that the drivers of poverty eradication differ across countries. Two representative scenarios are selected from these hundreds. One scenario is optimistic regarding poverty and is labeled “prosperity;” the other scenario is pessimistic and labeled “poverty.” Results from sector analyses of climate change impacts—in agriculture, health, and natural disasters—are introduced in the two scenarios. By 2030, climate change is found to have a significant impact on poverty, especially through higher food prices and reduction of agricultural production in Africa and South Asia, and through health in all regions. But the magnitude of these impacts depends on development choices. In the prosperity scenario with rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development, climate change increases poverty by between 3 million and 16 million in 2030. The increase in poverty reaches between 35 million and 122 million if development is delayed and less inclusive (the poverty scenario).en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOSANITATIONPOVERTY THRESHOLDINCOME ON FOODJOBSIMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGEPOOR PEOPLEINDICATORS FOR POVERTYFOOD PRICERISKSIMPACT OF HURRICANESHOUSEHOLD SIZEHOUSEHOLD SURVEYUNCERTAINTIESPOVERTY REDUCTIONPOVERTY LINEIMPACT ON POVERTYSUBSTITUTIONSECTORAL RESULTSECONOMIC GROWTHEMISSION ABATEMENTPOVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGIESINCOMEPOVERTY RATESPOVERTY ESTIMATESINCOME GROWTHAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIONCHANGES IN PRICESCOUNTERFACTUALINCOME ON FOODEMISSIONSEXTREME SCENARIOSCOST‐BENEFIT ANALYSISFOOD PRICESREVENUESPOVERTY REDUCTION EFFORTSDEATHPOVERTY DYNAMICSPOOR PEOPLEAGRICULTURAL ECONOMICSEXTREME POVERTY LINEMODELSCLIMATE SCENARIOSPRICEGLOBAL POVERTYCROP YIELDMEASURESHOUSEHOLD‐LEVEL DATAFOOD MARKETSHURRICANESEXTREME WEATHERPOVERTY REDUCTIONDEEP‐UNCERTAINTYAGRICULTURAL PRACTICESECONOMIC ACTIVITYCROP YIELDFOOD MARKETSSAVINGSALTERNATIVE SCENARIOSSCENARIOSPER CAPITA INCOMEDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSEXTREME POVERTYAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITYCLIMATE POLICIESFAT TAILSINCOME DISTRIBUTIONINCOME GROWTHEMISSIONS‐REDUCTIONFOOD PRICETOTAL CONSUMPTIONGLOBAL POVERTYLABOR PRODUCTIVITYTRANSFERSAGRICULTURAL WAGESMARKETSHOUSEHOLD SURVEYSCYCLONESCLIMATE CHANGEFOOD PRODUCTIONFARMERSFAMINEFOOD PRODUCTSCASH TRANSFERSEXTREME TEMPERATUREFINANCEFOOD PRODUCTIONIMPACT ON POVERTYAGRICULTURAL POLICYCROP YIELDSCONSUMPTIONECONOMIC IMPACTECONOMIC RESILIENCEPOVERTY ERADICATIONFOOD SECURITYECONOMIC COSTSAGRICULTURAL WORKERSPOLICIESCLIMATE CHANGEEXTREME POVERTY LINEINCOME REDISTRIBUTIONPOVERTY RATESCLIMATIC CHANGECLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTHOUSEHOLD‐LEVEL DATAPOLICY MAKERSHOUSEHOLD SURVEYSCASH TRANSFERSCLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTSEXTREME EVENTSPOOR COUNTRIESCLIMATEECONOMIC SECTORSDEMANDABATEMENTNATIONAL INCOMEINCOME DISTRIBUTIONABSOLUTE POVERTYAGRICULTURAL SECTORFOOD EXPENDITURECLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATIONAGRICULTURAL PRACTICESMALNUTRITIONRURALDEEP UNCERTAINTYNUTRITIONHOUSEHOLD BUDGETENVIRONMENTAL CATASTROPHEENERGY PRICESPRICE INCREASEPOLICYHUMAN HEALTHCLIMATIC CHANGEAGRICULTURAL WORKERSCOST OF CARBONDRINKING WATERPOVERTY ERADICATIONHURRICANEUNCERTAIN IMPACTSECONOMIC IMPACTSEXTREME POVERTYCLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOSPOOR HOUSEHOLDSFOOD PRODUCTSPOVERTY REDUCTION EFFORTSPOVERTYPOOR FARMERSFOOD PRICE FLUCTUATIONSFOOD SUPPLYSUPPLYPOLICY IMPLICATIONSLABOR SUPPLYAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITYFOOD SECURITYPOVERTY DYNAMICSINCOME REDISTRIBUTIONPOOREXTREME WEATHER EVENTSEXCHANGE RATEPOVERTY IMPACTDISTRIBUTIONAL IMPLICATIONSFOOD PRICESDISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACTSAGRICULTURAL SECTORPOOR FARMERSPOVERTY THRESHOLDECONOMIC GROWTHECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGEPRICESECONOMIC CONDITIONSBENEFITSINEQUALITYPOOR HOUSEHOLDSINDICATORS FOR POVERTYHOUSEHOLD SURVEYWorking PaperWorld Bank10.1596/1813-9450-7483