Ivanic, MarosIanchovichina, Elena2014-12-122014-12-122014-12https://hdl.handle.net/10986/20696This paper uses a global computable general-equilibrium framework with new detail on six Levant countries -- the Arab Republic of Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, the Syrian Arab Republic, and Turkey -- to quantify the direct and indirect economic effects of the Syrian war and the advance of the Islamic State on the Levant. Syria and Iraq bear the brunt of the direct economic costs, while the other Levant countries lose in per capita but not in aggregate terms. The fact that the Islamic State's spread has undermined regional trade adds to varying degrees to the direct costs in all Levant economies and in the case of Syria and Iraq doubles the welfare losses. All these countries are foregoing opportunities to expand intra-Levant trade and the associated gains in economic efficiency and diversification. The average welfare effects are not indicative of within-country incidence, which varies among workers, landowners, and capitalists.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOAGENTSAGGREGATE CONSUMPTIONAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTSAGRICULTURAL TRADEAGRICULTUREAPPARELAPPLICATIONSBARRIERS TO TRADEBENCHMARKBENEFITS OF TRADEBILATERAL TARIFFBILATERAL TRADEBILATERAL TRADE AGREEMENTSBORDER INFRASTRUCTUREBUSINESS SERVICESCAPITAL GOODSCAPITAL OWNERSCOMMERCIAL SERVICESCOMPETITIVENESSCOUNTRY TARIFFCOVERAGECUMULATIVE EFFECTSCUSTOMSCUSTOMS UNIONDEEP TRADE INTEGRATIONDEEPER TRADE INTEGRATIONDEMAND FOR GOODSDEVELOPING COUNTRIESDEVELOPMENT POLICYDIRECT INVESTMENTDISASTERSDOMESTIC FIRMSDOMESTIC MARKETECONOMIC EFFICIENCYECONOMIC INTEGRATIONECONOMIC POLICYECONOMIC SYSTEMSELASTICITYEMBARGOEQUILIBRIUMEX POST ASSESSMENTEXPORT MARKETSEXPORT SHARESEXPORTERSEXPORTSFINANCIAL SERVICESFOREIGN COMPETITIONFOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTFOREIGN INVESTMENTFOREIGN OWNERSHIPFREE TRADEFREE TRADE AREAGENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSISGENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELGLOBAL COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUMGLOBAL TRADEGLOBAL TRADE ANALYSISHOTELSIMPORT DATAIMPORT VALUESIMPORTING COUNTRYIMPORTSIMPROVED MARKET ACCESSINSURANCEINTERMEDIATE INPUTSINTERNATIONAL LABOR MOBILITYINTERNATIONAL TRADEINVESTIGATIONSINVESTMENT FLOWSMETAL PRODUCTSMFNMONOPOLIESMULTILATERAL TRADEMULTILATERAL TRADE REFORMNATURAL RESOURCESNEWLY INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIESOIL PRICEOIL PRICESOPPORTUNITY COSTSOWNERSHIP STRUCTUREPER CAPITA INCOMEPRODUCT DIFFERENTIATIONPRODUCTION COSTSPRODUCTIVITY GROWTHPROTECTION DATAPROTECTION RATESPUBLIC MONOPOLIESPUBLIC SERVICESREAL GDPRECIPROCITYREGIONAL INTEGRATIONREGIONAL TRADEREGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTSREGIONAL TRADE INTEGRATIONRETAIL TRADESAVINGSSERVICE SECTORSSERVICES LIBERALIZATIONSERVICES SECTORSSERVICES TRADESKILLED LABORTARIFF DATATARIFF EQUIVALENTSTARIFF LINESTARIFF PROTECTIONTARIFF RATETARIFF RATESTARIFF REVENUETAX REVENUETELECOMMUNICATIONSTOTAL COSTSTOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITYTOURISMTRADE AGREEMENTTRADE AGREEMENTSTRADE BALANCESTRADE CONCESSIONSTRADE COSTSTRADE DATATRADE FLOWSTRADE IN SERVICESTRADE LIBERALIZATIONTRADE LOSSESTRADE POLICYTRADE PREFERENCESTRADE REFORMTRADE REFORMSTRADE RESTRICTIONSTRADE VALUETRADE VOLUMESTRANSPORT COSTSTRANSPORT SERVICESUNSKILLED LABORUNSKILLED WORKERSURUGUAY ROUNDVALUE ADDEDWAGE RATESWAGESWELFARE LOSSWELFARE LOSSESWORLD TRADEWORLD TRADE ORGANIZATIONWTO10.1596/1813-9450-7135