Gimenez, LeaJolliffe, DeanSharif, Iffath2014-06-172014-06-172014https://hdl.handle.net/10986/18668The vision 2021 plan and the associated perspective plan 2010-2021, adopted by the Government of Bangladesh lay out a series of development targets for 2021. Among the core targets identified to monitor the progress toward the vision 2021 objectives is that of attaining a poverty headcount of 14 percent by 2021. The purpose of this paper is to answer the following question: given Bangladesh's performance in poverty reduction over the last decades, can the author expect the proportion of the country's population living in poverty to be 14 percent by 2022? Using data from the last three household income and expenditures survey, we examine changes in poverty rates during 2000-2010, estimate net elasticity of poverty reduction to growth in per-capita expenditure, and then project poverty headcounts into the future. Our poverty projections based on the last three Household Income and Expenditure Surveys (HIES) surveys suggest that Bangladesh will achieve its Millennium Development Goal, or MDG goal of halving its poverty headcount to 28.5 percent by 2015 significantly ahead of schedule. Attaining the vision 2021 poverty target of 14 percent by 2021, however, is less certain as it requires a Gross Domestic Product, or GDP growth of at least 8 percent, or more than 2 percentage points higher than that observed in recent years.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOANNUAL GROWTHAVERAGE GROWTHAVERAGE GROWTH RATECHANGES IN POVERTYCONSUMPTION EXPENDITURECONSUMPTION EXPENDITURESCONSUMPTION GROWTHCOUNTERFACTUALCUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTIONDECLINE IN POVERTYDECLINE IN POVERTY RATESDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSDEVELOPMENT STRATEGYDISTRIBUTIONAL CHANGESECONOMIC GROWTHECONOMICS LETTERSEXTREME POVERTYFOOD PRICESGDPGINI COEFFICIENTGINI INDEXGROSS ELASTICITYGROWTH COMPONENTGROWTH ELASTICITYGROWTH PROCESSGROWTH RATEGROWTH RATESHEADCOUNT RATIOHOUSEHOLD INCOMEHOUSEHOLD SURVEYINCIDENCE OF POVERTYINCOMEINEQUALITYINEQUALITY CONSTANTLABOR FORCELOW INCOMEMEAN EXPENDITUREMEAN GROWTHNATIONAL POVERTYNATIONAL POVERTY HEADCOUNTNATIONAL POVERTY LINENEGATIVE EFFECTNET ELASTICITYPER CAPITA EXPENDITUREPOINT DECLINEPOLITICAL ECONOMYPOORPOOR HOUSEHOLDPOOR PEOPLEPOORER HOUSEHOLDPOVERTY ASSESSMENTPOVERTY DECLINEPOVERTY DEPTHPOVERTY ESTIMATESPOVERTY GAPPOVERTY GAP INDEXPOVERTY HEADPOVERTY HEADCOUNT INDEXPOVERTY HEADCOUNT RATEPOVERTY HEADCOUNT RATESPOVERTY INCIDENCEPOVERTY INDEXPOVERTY INDICESPOVERTY LEVELPOVERTY LINEPOVERTY LINESPOVERTY MEASURESPOVERTY MONITORINGPOVERTY POVERTYPOVERTY RATEPOVERTY RATESPOVERTY REDUCTIONPOVERTY TARGETPOVERTY THRESHOLDPRO-POORPRO-POOR GROWTHREDUCING POVERTYRELATIVE INEQUALITYRURALRURAL AREASRURAL PHENOMENONSEASONAL VARIATIONSSUSTAINABLE GROWTHTECHNICAL ASSISTANCETOTAL POVERTYURBAN AREASURBAN GROWTHWELFARE MEASURE10.1596/18668