Cojocaru, AlexandruOlivieri, Sergio2014-06-262014-06-262014-05https://hdl.handle.net/10986/18797The continued poverty impact of the financial crisis in Serbia is difficult to establish beyond 2010 because of the lack of survey data. This paper tackles this difficulty. It uses a micro-simulation approach that accounts for a key pathway of the financial crisis in Serbia, the labor market. The results suggest a further increase in poverty in 2011 on account of a continued deterioration of the labor market indicators and despite a recovering gross domestic product. In order to evaluate the forecast, the model is applied to generate forecasts for previous years (2009 and 2010), which are compared with realized poverty estimates. The micro-simulation model performs well in predicting poverty dynamics during 2009-10 and less so during 2008-09. The accuracy of the predictions improves when the response of the social protection system is accounted for.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOAGGREGATE INEQUALITYAGRICULTURAL INCOMESAGRICULTURAL SECTORAGRICULTUREANNUAL % CHANGEANNUAL GROWTHANNUAL GROWTH RATEAVERAGE ANNUALCALORIE INTAKECONSUMPTION GROWTHCONSUMPTION LEVELSCONSUMPTION SMOOTHINGDECLINING POVERTYDEMAND SIDEDEMOGRAPHIC CHANGESDEVELOPING COUNTRIESDEVELOPMENT POLICYDISTRIBUTIONAL CHANGESDISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACTDISTRIBUTIONAL MEASURESDIVIDENDSECONOMETRICSECONOMIC CONTRACTIONECONOMIC GROWTHECONOMIC POLICIESECONOMIC SECTORECONOMIC SECTORSECONOMIC SHOCKSECONOMIC SITUATIONELASTICITYEMPLOYMENT STATUSFARMERSFINANCIAL CRISISFOOD BASKETFOOD REQUIREMENTSFORECASTSGDPGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTGROWTH ELASTICITYGROWTH RATESHBSHBS DATAHBS INCOMEHISTORICAL DATAHOUSEHOLD BUDGETHOUSEHOLD BUDGET SURVEYHOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTIONHOUSEHOLD DATAHOUSEHOLD HEADSHOUSEHOLD INCOMEHOUSEHOLD INCOMESHOUSEHOLD MEMBERSHOUSEHOLD SURVEYHOUSEHOLD SURVEY DATAHOUSEHOLD WELFAREIMPACT ANALYSISINCIDENCE OF POVERTYINCOMEINCOME COMPONENTSINCOME DISTRIBUTIONINCOME DISTRIBUTIONSINCOME DYNAMICSINCOME GROWTHINCOME MEANINCOME SOURCEINCREASING UNEMPLOYMENTINDIVIDUAL INCOMESINEQUALITYINEQUALITY MEASURESINFLATION RATESLABOR FORCELABOR INCOMELABOR MARKETLABOR MARKETSLOW INCOMEMACROECONOMIC CONTEXTMACROECONOMIC POLICIESMACROECONOMIC SHOCKSMEAN GROWTHNATIONAL POVERTYNET INCOMENEW POORPENSIONSPER CAPITA CONSUMPTIONPER CAPITA INCOMEPOLICY DISCUSSIONSPOLICY REFORMSPOLICY RESEARCHPOORPOOR HOUSEHOLDSPOPULATION GROWTHPOSITIVE GROWTHPOVERTY CHANGESPOVERTY DYNAMICSPOVERTY ESTIMATESPOVERTY GAPPOVERTY HEADCOUNTPOVERTY IMPACTPOVERTY INCIDENCEPOVERTY INCREASEPOVERTY LINEPOVERTY MEASUREPOVERTY MEASURESPOVERTY RATEPOVERTY RATESPOVERTY REDUCTIONPRICE CHANGESPROGRAMSPUBLIC TRANSFERSRELATIVE IMPORTANCERELATIVE PRICESRURALRURAL AREASSAVINGSSIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCESSIMULATIONSSKILL LEVELSOCIAL ASSISTANCESOCIAL TRANSFERSUNDERESTIMATESUNEMPLOYMENTUNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITSUNEMPLOYMENT RATEUTILITY MAXIMIZATION10.1596/1813-9450-6889